What do you mean the stock market is blown? Will it have an impact on A shares?

Morning briefing: The broader market fell 1.34% to close at 2,928 points, while the Growth Enterprise Market index fell 2.25% to close at 2,54 points. In early trading, the turnover of the two cities was 498.94 billion, which was obviously reduced. Only 588 stocks in the two cities rose, with a general decline pattern. There were 44 stocks in the two cities with daily limit and 5 stocks with a drop of more than 9%.

Let's talk about the external market first. At present, Chinese investors look at US stocks almost every night before going to bed, and they have to look at them again the next day. Perhaps it is worried about the impact on A-shares, perhaps just to watch the fun. As a whole, we still pay more attention to the trend of global capital market, which should at least have a greater psychological impact on investors.

U.S. stocks plunged overnight, with the Dow Jones index down 5.86% and the Nasdaq down 4.7%. What is more serious is that US stock futures fell sharply this morning, and Nasdaq futures hit the down limit area. Subsequently, the Asia-Pacific stock market began to plummet, and the Nikkei index fell 5%.

Looking back at the decline of the external market during this period, as shown in the figure,

We will find that the decline is really large, and most of them are over 17%. This way of falling, let us understand what is a waterfall decline! Seeing such a decline, we avoid thinking that it may eventually hit the A-share market, which becomes one of the reasons for shorting and shorting A-shares. However, such reasons for bearish A-shares are a bit too superficial and fail to see the essence clearly.

for the current market, it is really necessary to make an analysis from a macro perspective, otherwise the grasp of future trends will fall into a confused area. Let me briefly say two points:

1. Investment is comprehensive and comparative.

comprehensiveness means that the whole world is integrated. Due to the mutual trade and close economic exchanges, one side will have an impact and the other side will have a shock. The global market crash this time stems from the great economic impact and pessimistic expectations. From this point of view, A shares will also be implicated. China's annual economic data will definitely not look good.

comparison, as a financial market, the liquidity of funds is the most important. When optimistic, funds go to places with high flexibility, and when pessimistic, funds go to places with relative valuation advantages. In contrast, A-shares have a valuation advantage and will gradually gain more capital recognition. From this point of view, A shares have benefited from the turmoil.

these two views seem to be a bit contradictory, but they are not. The time of this reaction is different, the comprehensiveness is reflected in the short term, and the comparison is reflected in the rational choice (medium and long term). Therefore, our view is that the center of gravity will move down slightly in the short-term strong market shock, and then there will be a good time to get on the bus in the middle or in the second and third quarters!

2. Different countries have different national conditions and different marginal effects of tools.

the national conditions are different, which is easy to understand. China's economy is at the bottom, and this time, COVID-19 has hit a hole. And the United States is after a high level of false prosperity.

in terms of monetary policy tools, China's deposit reserve ratio still has a lot of room, and there are not many tools available abroad. However, if you use the toolbox every time the market falls or the economic crisis, it will be useful at first, but it will gradually weaken later. Therefore, we should also be clear about this point, and don't expect too much from lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates, and the impact on the secondary market will not be too obvious. In the end, when the real economy improves, it can be truly reflected.

After comparison, there are still many measures that can help the real economy in China.

in early trading, the overall situation of the disk fell sharply, and high-tech still showed the trend of oversold and rebound. The rebound of new infrastructure is more obvious. At this time, we suggest that the position should be properly controlled and the position should be reduced in the rebound. However, short positions are not recommended. The current market is a structural opportunity. Many varieties in the direction of the main board have not rebounded in the early stage. This time, the decline has hit a pit and you can start to pay attention. It is still possible to maintain a medium position.

Every day is like a roller coaster market. At this time, we should do less pre-judgment, do more enterprise research, pay attention to low-valuation, high-quality and high-growth enterprises, and just pick up chips on dips. When it turns out, we can return home with a full load!