Is Huawei really at a loss in chip production?

Huawei is not at a loss for chips! Now Huawei is undergoing new adjustment and layout, and there is an opportunity to change the status quo in the future, at least adjusting some product lines.

1, the chip is temporarily short of high-end chips: recently, Yu Chengdong publicly admitted that the lack of chips means that "Huawei Kirin's high-end chips cannot be manufactured after September 15". It can be seen from this sentence that in the future, Huawei will lack high-end chips first, and low-end chips may still be OEM.

This means that Huawei's mobile phone business can continue. In the absence of high-end models, low-end models alone can still impact the market, but profits will decline in the future.

In addition, at present, the interruption of supply in the United States is only aimed at the OEM production of chips, and the road of outsourcing chips directly has not been completely blocked. So in the future, Huawei can also produce mobile phones by purchasing chips from manufacturers such as MediaTek.

2. Huawei launched Nanniwan Plan: Recently, some media disclosed that Huawei launched a research and development plan called Nanniwan, aiming at beautifying the supply chain and avoiding the emergence of American technology among existing suppliers, thus building a relatively complete industrial chain.

At present, smart screens, laptops, smart homes and other products in Huawei's consumer business will be the content of Nanniwan project, and these products will not be affected by American technology and sanctions in the future. The technological requirements of these device chips are not as high as those of mobile phones. At this stage, with the strength of Huawei and the technology of domestic semiconductor industry chain, it can basically be realized in time.

3. It is possible to build an IDM system on a small scale: after the supply of chips is cut off, it is rumored that Huawei is ready to consider building its own IDM system to realize the design, development, manufacturing and sales of chips through one train.

Yu Chengdong's recent statement basically confirms this point. Huawei will take root in the semiconductor industry in an all-round way, tackle basic physical materials science and explore semiconductor precision manufacturing, increase investment in new materials, new processes and core technologies, and achieve a breakthrough in the bottleneck.

The above basically indicates that Huawei is ready to make a real breakthrough in the semiconductor industry chain and avoid getting stuck in core technologies.

4. National policies began to support the semiconductor industry: On August 4, China promulgated "Several Policies for Promoting the High-quality Development of Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Period", which shows that the state attaches great importance to the semiconductor industry and regards it as the core of the information industry and the key force of scientific and technological change. At the same time, the support for the semiconductor industry has been strengthened again, including taxation, investment and financing, R&D, import and export, talents, intellectual property rights, market application and international cooperation.

Lscssh technical officer's point of view: On the whole, from the national level, as well as Huawei's own IDM system and Nanniwan project, and Huawei's huge terminal sales, it will really promote the coordinated development of China's semiconductor industry, and domestic semiconductors will certainly achieve relatively high development in the future.

Therefore, in my opinion, Huawei does not lose money on chips. It may be difficult in the short term, and high-end mobile phones may be scrapped. But in the long run, a comprehensive breakthrough will be achieved. In the end, not only Huawei can tide over the difficulties, but also the entire semiconductor industry chain can achieve breakthroughs and completely get rid of the fate of being stuck by technology.

At present, the chips in Huawei's inventory will be gone by September 15, when Kirin's high-end chips will be out of print! However, Huawei will definitely not sit still. At present, Qualcomm has applied to the Trump administration to lift the restrictions on the export of Huawei chips on the grounds that it does not want to lose tens of billions of dollars in annual orders! At the same time, Huawei is also increasing orders for MediaTek! Whether Huawei's high-end machine is equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon chip or MediaTek's Tianji chip has not been finalized!

Will Huawei really lose money in chip production? Come down?

We are full of worries about Huawei chips. In our opinion, if TSMC really cuts off Huawei's supply. Then Huawei will lose the Kirin processor. Yu Chengdong also admitted in his speech that Huawei Kirin processor is likely to become out of print on Huawei mate40.

For example, if the Kirin processor is really cut off by Huawei, it will not produce the Kirin processor. For Huawei, it may be really at a loss in the field of chips. But what we want to see is that it refers to the Kirin processor. For Huawei chips, it may not be as complicated or difficult as everyone thinks.

Huawei now solves possible chip problems in two ways. Huawei's 1 mode uses Qualcomm's processor. Using Qualcomm's processors can alleviate the shortage of Huawei processors, and also alleviate the helplessness that Huawei Kirin processors may be out of stock.

I also read in The Wall Street Journal that Qualcomm, an American chip giant, is lobbying the Trump administration to lift the restrictions on Huawei's chip sales!

So this road may be the only way for Huawei's high-end processors. Let's look at another way. The cooperation between Huawei and MediaTek should be positive. After all, the development of MediaTek during this period also showed us its rise. For Huawei, MediaTek can't replace Kirin processor, but its advantages are obvious. Most importantly, it is not affected by the power outage of TSMC.

Instead, it signed a letter of intent for cooperation and a large purchase order with MediaTek, and the order amount exceeded 65.438+0.2 billion chips.

For Huawei, although the Kirin processor may be out of supply, for Huawei mobile phones, the chip problem is actually a way to go, and there are traces to follow, not the so-called helplessness.

There is really no way! Otherwise, Yu Chengdong wouldn't frankly tell the China Information Committee at the 100 2020 Summit that Kirin chips are about to run out of stock. After all, Huawei admits that this fact is not good. Let's talk about the difficulties faced by Huawei.

Huawei is prohibited from using EDA to design chips. Everyone knows that the biggest highlight of Huawei's mobile phone is the use of self-developed Kirin chips. Coupled with the blessing of Huawei's 5G technology, Kirin chip is one of the best 5G chips at present.

The self-research of Kirin chip naturally needs to use American EDA chip design tools. Due to a ban in the United States, Huawei was banned from using relevant design tools. At present, although China has made a breakthrough in the field of EDA tools, it is difficult to meet Huawei's design requirements in performance.

At present, Huawei's design of Kirin chips has become a problem, not to mention continuing to make breakthroughs in Kirin chips.

It is forbidden for other foundries to contract for Huawei. We have to admit that Huawei's precautions have won Huawei a little respite. It is precisely because Huawei has placed tens of millions of Kirin chips with TSMC in advance that Huawei's latest mate series will not fall into the embarrassing situation that there is no core available.

However, this is only a delaying tactic. As long as the United States does not let go of the foundry ban, not only foreign foundries such as TSMC and Samsung can't do OEM work for Huawei, but also domestic SMIC can't produce chips for Huawei.

Recently, SMIC has also answered many questions from consumers in China. It can be seen from its reply that even with enough technology, they will not be able to produce a chip for Huawei for quite some time.

We must plan to buy chips for a long time. In fact, since Yu Chengdong admits that Huawei has no core available, there is only one way for Huawei to buy finished chips from other chip companies. At present, the best partners are MediaTek and Qualcomm.

MediaTek has released a variety of chips this year, apparently to have a greater say in the high-end chip market, so when Huawei faced difficulties, it handed out an olive branch at the first time. However, at present, Huawei has clearly expressed its cooperative attitude. As long as MediaTek can win all orders from Huawei, it is very likely that it will bid farewell to the label of "low price" from this year.

Qualcomm is actually a little under the weather at the moment. Although it reached a settlement with Huawei some time ago and obtained a huge compensation of 654.38+08 billion US dollars, it is essentially an American enterprise and is still restricted by official forces. At present, Qualcomm has not obtained permission to sell chips to Huawei, so he can only watch MediaTek win one big order after another. However, as long as Qualcomm can get the "passport", the possibility of its future cooperation with Huawei is still great.

Although it is reported that Huawei is testing a complete chip production line on a small scale and starting the Nanniwan project, it is far from thirsty after all. Now we can only hope that Huawei can maintain excellent mobile phone performance with chips from MediaTek or Qualcomm. Once Huawei's mobile phone without "China Core" is not recognized by the market, Huawei's mobile phone business may collapse completely.

Did Huawei lose money? We need to explain what is the biggest problem facing Huawei at present. Whether Huawei has the ability or method to solve this problem.

First, Huawei's traditional chip Kirin is really at a loss. We know that Huawei is listed as an entity by the United States. Any company in the world that uses American technology or parts may not provide services or sell chips to Huawei without the permission of the United States. It is also this ban in the United States that led TSMC to stop OEM Kirin chips for Huawei. This explains why Yu Chengdong said that after September 15, Huawei's Kirin chip will become a swan song.

However, Huawei's mobile phone may not lose money, but it is just "reduced to fear for everyone." Because the real purpose of the United States is not to let Huawei not sell mobile phones, the fundamental goal of the United States is Huawei's 5G, which suppresses Huawei's independent research and development capabilities. On the one hand, the United States used the "five-eye alliance" internationally to persuade them to give up purchasing Huawei's 5G. On the other hand, how to make Huawei's own 5G chips disappear in the world? It means that 5G can't be produced. As long as 5G can't be produced, it's just a pile of circuit diagrams. The United States is not worried.

Therefore, the United States turned a blind eye to Huawei's procurement from MediaTek. Huawei phones equipped with MediaTek chips are no different from Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo.

Second, Huawei tries to break through basic innovation and win the containment of the United States in the next era. Huawei is soberly aware that it can only find another way to break the situation, because China's semiconductor technology is really difficult to carry the banner of Huawei's manufacturing at present. In addition, SMIC mentioned in its listing prospectus that it may not be able to provide services for some enterprises. We all know that it refers to Huawei.

Does Huawei admit this? Huawei, which has a wolf culture, will not defend passively and must launch an attack. Yu Chengdong of Huawei said: "To solve these problems, we must realize basic innovation and win the next era!" . Yes, basic innovation, as long as we find another way from the bottom, can break the US ban. According to Yu Chengdong's introduction, Huawei takes root in semiconductors in all directions, breaking through the basic research and precision manufacturing of physics and materials science; On the terminal device, "new materials+new technology are closely linked, breaking through the bottleneck restricting innovation".

Therefore, Huawei is planning the next era.

Finally, it is not just Huawei's reform and opening up that needs to make up lessons. Although our rapid development has speed, it makes us ignore many core competitiveness and many weaknesses. Today, the problems we encounter in Huawei and even the whole integrated circuit are all because we ignore the perfection of the semiconductor industry chain.

Therefore, the whole industry should make up lessons with Huawei.

Combined with the caption, the Huawei chip production mentioned in this question refers to Huawei's high-end Kirin chip manufacturing.

The high-end Kirin chip is really gone. Yu Chengdong said, if it's gone, it must be gone. The fact that "production stopped in September 15" is true, and I can't help but believe it.

The high-end Kirin chip should not really be out of print. At the committee of 100 2020 Summit of China Informatization, Yu Chengdong said it was out of print, but didn't he also shout? Although it is believed that "China's core technology and core ecological control ability are still far behind the United States and other countries", it has also issued an appeal, given suggestions and raised hopes, believing that sanctions "are also a great opportunity to force us (referring to domestic industries) to upgrade their industries as soon as possible" and that "nothing is difficult in the world". Naturally, with the upgrading of the industry, Huawei's high-end Kirin chips will come out again, and even we are full of confidence in this! There is no suspense, but it will come slowly, and the power borrowed by Huawei will come late.

The production of high-end Kirin chips should really be at a loss. Although there is still hope for TSMC to produce mobile phone chips online, for example, TSMC listed mobile phone chips as standard products to avoid the US ban, Yu Chengdong decided that it might not get OEM again, although it is a big customer of TSMC. Huawei people must know the future best! Therefore, for the first time, Yu Chengdong publicly stated the fact that he was in a very difficult situation; Yu Chengdong was very domineering, but this time he didn't let the words "a blessing in disguise, a blessing in disguise" blurt out.

Huawei will indeed be a "temporary compromise". Compromise, in the true sense, Huawei does not build its own IDM model, that is, it does not adopt the method of self-help in the past, but calls for self-construction in China, hoping to lead the industry, which is contrary to some opinions still existing on the domestic Internet; The so-called "MediaTek chip" is neither a compromise nor a Qualcomm chip. It only regards MediaTek and Qualcomm as partners, and it has always been like this. Contrary to some opinions of the domestic Internet, it is not affected by these opinions, basically because Huawei only regards itself as a multinational company of 1. Whether the temporary nature of compromise is strong or weak, that is, whether the "time" is long or short, depends on the domestic semiconductor industry.

At the same time, Huawei is definitely "secretly accumulating strength." Actually, it wasn't done secretly, which is obvious. Yu Chengdong's appeal and hope are publicly issued and can be heard all over the world, including of course the United States; The domestic semiconductor industry will devote itself to de-Americanization and high-end with an unprecedented sense of urgency, which is also a public phenomenon of 1 What's more, the domestic internet has been exposing what Huawei wants to do and what it wants to do, exposing everything about Huawei to the world, although the later situation, especially the voice of Huawei people, proves that many of them are not what Huawei wants.

Recently, Yu Chengdong said on August 7th that Huawei's high-end Kirin chip may not be made public, and Huawei's Nanniwan project and Huawei's Tashan project broke out on the Internet. Are these what Huawei wants? Huawei people have not publicly confirmed it, so wait and see. Even if it is true, Huawei generally wants to rely on domestic industries to add strength to Huawei through self-reliance, including the hope that domestic foundries will no longer be helpless in chip production, but will show their talents and make great achievements, and then let Huawei's high-end Kirin chips return, show their magical powers and make great achievements. That is to say, it is not called Xu Li or cohesion. So, what is the right name? I only know that the planner must be the leader, organizer and chief! Be responsible for the overall situation and strategize.

In the case that Huawei's high-end chips are out of stock, everyone feels aggrieved. TSMC does not accept orders for Huawei chips, nor does SMIC.

SMIC can't directly produce chips for Huawei regardless of the United States! Actually, it's not good. Mask aligner in ASML is inseparable from after-sales engineers.

A semiconductor observatory in China demonstrated the power of EUV mask aligner. A piece of equipment has more than 654.38 million parts and 40,000 bolts. Its weight is as high as 180 tons. The problem is that it consists of many parts and is extremely complicated.

More importantly, it is a high-precision device that can be used without plugging in. It takes almost one year for a high-precision mask aligner to be assembled and debugged before the product reaches the qualification rate. At the end of last year, SMIC put into production the 14 nano-chip, from 1500 wafers per month to 6000 and 8000 wafers, all of which are in the process of debugging.

In the later stage of precision equipment, after-sales service is needed to bridge the equipment and meet the production demand. SMIC's helplessness is not just talk.

In the hopeless situation of OEM, it is useless to worry, and backwardness is backwardness. Eager to have it tomorrow.

Yu Chengdong also admitted that it was a great pity that he didn't invest in the field of asset-intensive chip manufacturing. This means that neither China nor Huawei can effectively solve the problem of "beautifying" high-end chip production lines.

This is how backward Huawei broke through: the "Nanniwan" and "Tashan Plan" led by Huawei are all "beautification" projects. Among them, the "Tashan Plan" is mainly aimed at the more basic localization projects of semiconductors, mainly semiconductor materials and equipment.

These projects are a long process. It took Huawei 10 years to be on an equal footing with the world just for chip design. You can imagine how long it will take for the semiconductor industry. Even if integrated circuits are combined with the development of the new national system, it is impossible to completely break through in three to five years.

There is no way out. There is another village in Lu 'an.

In fact, the strength of others is not to talk about. With so many people supporting me, I must be prepared. After all, sanctions began last year. Maybe something will break ground in a few days, and the market of more than 200 million a year will be gone.

Yu Chengdong said publicly that there is no chip, or there is a chip. You can believe what Yu Chengdong said. If it's true, what does the boss use him for …

It is impossible to obtain or produce high-end (top-level) chips, and some domestic enterprises can produce low-end chips.