Will house prices rise or fall in five years? Tell us what you think?

Will house prices rise or fall in five years?

I think this topic is too broad and has little practical significance, because accurately predicting the rise and fall of house prices is a very boring thing, and few people in the world can really do it.

Besides, it is unscientific to say that there are no limited cities. China is so big that there are too many cities. There are first-tier cities, second-tier cities, third-tier and fourth-tier cities, and more than 2,000 counties. These cities The fundamentals are different, and housing prices are not the same.

In general, within five years, housing prices will diverge. Some cities will rise sharply, some will drop slightly, some cities will stay the same, some cities will drop slightly, and some cities will drop sharply.

Recently, housing prices in cities like Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Huizhou, especially Dongguan, have increased rapidly. However, this is a special case. There are not many such cities in the country. Most cities fluctuate up and down within a narrow range.

In the next five years, I think the current state of differentiation will continue.

In cities with good fundamentals and continued population inflow, housing prices will be the first to stabilize and are more likely to rise slowly. These cities include first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as surrounding metropolitan areas, as well as new first-tier cities such as Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and some second-tier cities that are provincial capitals. Because these cities have concentrated high-quality medical, education and other resources and have many employment opportunities, they are the places that most college students across the country yearn for.

On the contrary, in third- and fourth-tier cities and counties where the population continues to outflow, the driving force for rising housing prices is obviously insufficient. In these places, on the one hand, the population continues to outflow, and on the other hand, there is a surplus of houses, with few people and second-hand houses. Houses are neither easy to rent nor easy to sell. It is more likely that the current consolidation trend will continue. In fact, taking inflation into account, house prices will fall if they do not rise.

In general, the property market has now entered an era of excess stock and a buyer's market. Therefore, when we buy a house now, we must be careful and careful. We must buy in the right city and the price is high. Low, which determines whether our assets can maintain and increase in value.