What does the grey rhinoceros incident mean?

What does the grey rhinoceros incident mean?

What is the significance of the grey rhinoceros incident? In our life, there will be many events we know that are metaphors of all aspects of our life, so there are also many different fables for us to express. Then let's introduce the significance of the grey rhinoceros incident and get to know it together.

What does the grey rhinoceros incident mean? 1 Black Swan &; Gray rhino

"Black swan event" (English: Black Swan Event) refers to an unpredictable major and rare event. Unexpectedly, it means that it is unpredictable, but it has changed everything. Black Swan incident mainly refers to unexpected events or problems, such as SARS, financial storm, snowstorm and so on.

"Grey rhinoceros incident" generally means that the problem is very big and there are early signs, but they turn a blind eye and do not pay enough attention to it, which leads to serious problems or incidents.

The "grey rhinoceros incident" is so common that people take it for granted, while the "black swan" incident is extremely rare and unexpected.

How to deal with the "grey rhinoceros" incident

Many events in life and study are actually "grey rhinoceros" crises. We are all in crisis before we know it. Deep-rooted human nature is always with us in our life and study, which leads us into a crisis, but we can't find an obvious crisis.

Each of us faces at least one "grey rhinoceros" crisis, and sometimes even more. These events abound in our personal life and work. So let's:

First of all, we should admit the existence of the "grey rhinoceros" crisis.

Second, we should learn to correctly define the nature of the "grey rhinoceros" crisis we encounter.

Third, don't stand still. We should always take various preventive measures, even if we are not sure whether the crisis will come.

Fourth, don't waste the crisis. Sometimes, disasters are always inevitable. However, disasters are often accompanied by unexpected opportunities. Grasping the opportunity in the disaster, we can better deal with the "grey rhinoceros" incident and make ourselves successful.

Fifth, we should be the person who discovered the "grey rhinoceros" crisis and the person who controlled it.

High-frequency "grey rhinoceros" events in life

The following are the "grey rhinoceros" events that we may encounter with high frequency in our life, which we can also call "negative list of life":

High-interest financial management: I borrowed a high-interest loan to manage my money, but I lost money.

Hesitance to buy a house: during the period of rapid rise in house prices, I hesitate not to buy a house. When house prices rise, I either spend more money to buy a house or haven't got on the bus yet.

Obsessed with stock trading: Obsessed with stock trading, unable to extricate himself, even selling naked resignation's house and stocks.

Serious illness: serious illness, no insurance.

Accident: accident, no insurance.

Meeting people: When a girl meets love rat, her life may have to start over; Boys will also suffer when they meet inappropriate people. Choosing the right person is also part of financial management. )

Middle-aged divorce: people divorce when they reach middle age. (Just like Geng Hao in the movie Let Love Walk)

Children are defeated: don't patronize to make money, education is more important.

Old-age care is unprepared: knowing that old-age care can only rely on yourself, but never prepared.

Old people are fooling around: gambling, health care products, spending money indiscriminately, can't stop.

………………

Have you encountered these events in the "negative list of life"? Or have you read a similar story?

Or what do you think should be added to this "negative list of life"?

Or, have you been lucky enough to avoid a "negative event"? How did you avoid it?

abstract

Happy life has different reasons, but many failed lives are similar. Before thinking about how to live a good life, think about how not to live a failed life. Don't always try to copy other people's success. Success is difficult to replicate, but many failures can be avoided in advance.

The world is full of random and uncertain events. What we can do is to minimize the probability of being infringed. Some things are determined not to do, some places are determined not to go, and some people are determined not to see. We should establish the thinking of capital preservation, accumulate bit by bit, learn to love ourselves and respond positively to avoid the "grey rhinoceros" incident becoming a "black swan" incident.

As Charles Munger said, "If I knew where I would die, I would never go there!" "

What does the grey rhinoceros incident mean? The grey rhinoceros incident refers to a common risk that people take for granted. Metaphor is a potential crisis with high probability and great influence. Grey rhinoceros is a concept that complements the black swan, and the "black swan incident" is an extremely rare accidental risk.

Event background

17 July 17, the first working day after the financial work conference, People's Daily published a commentator's article "Effective Prevention of Financial Risks" on the front page, in which it was mentioned that preventing and resolving financial risks should enhance the sense of hardship. It is necessary to guard against both "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros", which can neither be taken lightly nor ignored. This is the first time that People's Daily mentioned the concept of "grey rhinoceros".

event

The word "grey rhinoceros" is popular. For example, People's Daily recently published a commentator's article entitled "Effective Prevention of Financial Risks" on the front page. The article wrote: "We must guard against both' black swan' and' grey rhinoceros', and we must not take risks lightly, let alone turn a deaf ear."

From 2065438 to March 2007, Xinhua News Agency paid attention to the existence of "grey rhinoceros". In an article entitled "Perspective of Anti-globalization", Xinhua News Agency suggested that "grey rhinoceros" is more terrible than "black swan" and deserves more attention.

So how did the word "grey rhinoceros" come from? Many years ago, a best-selling book "Black Swan" made everyone familiar with the word "black swan", and now it is this book that makes everyone know the "grey rhinoceros".

The book "Grey Rhino: How to Deal with the High Probability Crisis" written by Michel Walker, winner of Guggenheim Scholar Award, made the "Grey Rhino" known to the world. Similar to "black swan", it refers to an event with low probability and great influence, while "grey rhinoceros" refers to a potential crisis with high probability and great influence.

Grey rhinoceros is huge and slow to respond. You can see it from a distance, but you don't care. Once it comes at you, you will be caught off guard and thrown directly to the ground. It is not mysterious, but it is more dangerous. It can be said that "grey rhinoceros" is a high probability crisis, which is constantly staged in all fields of society. Many crisis events are more like "grey rhinoceros" than "black swan". There were signs before the outbreak, but they were ignored.

Xinhua News Agency reporters cited the example of "grey rhinoceros" in the article, such as the deep-seated problem that triggered the current round of globalization against the trend and the rise of populism-inequality. This problem has a long history, but it has not attracted enough attention. Until the outbreak of the financial crisis, the recovery of the world economy, especially the developed economies, continued to be weak, the lives of the middle class and the poor class continued to deteriorate, and the gap between the rich and the poor widened, which eventually became one of the incentives for a series of "black swan" incidents.

At present, there are also "grey rhinos" in China's economic and financial fields. China's leadership has realized the existence and danger of "grey rhinoceros" and promoted risk prevention to a more prominent position.

The National Financial Work Conference held a few days ago pointed out that preventing the occurrence of systemic financial risks is the eternal theme of financial work, and it is necessary to take the initiative to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks in a more important position, with scientific prevention, early identification, early warning, early detection and early disposal. This is undoubtedly the correct attitude towards the "grey rhinoceros" in the financial field.

In view of the "grey rhinoceros" in the economic and financial fields, China has ideas and more actions. On the one hand, China's economy practices hard and does its own thing well. From various economic indicators, the economic structure and enterprise benefits have been continuously improved, and the people's sense of gain and market confidence have been further enhanced; On the other hand, China insists on opening to the outside world, promotes the construction of an open world economy, and puts forward the "China Plan" of "building a community of human destiny and realizing * * * to win * * *".

In the book, Walker proposes that we should deal with the risk of "grey rhinoceros", don't waste the crisis that has happened, and really learn from the disaster. From the American subprime mortgage crisis to the European debt crisis, it can be said that there is a huge "grey rhinoceros" risk behind every crisis. In the subprime mortgage crisis, the US real estate bubble, excessive credit expansion and other signs have emerged; In the European debt crisis, the problems of high debts and excessive fiscal deficits in many European countries are far from overnight. In these crises, the risk of "grey rhinoceros" was ignored and could not be properly handled, which eventually led to a major crisis.

From a global perspective, global issues such as globalization, climate change and refugees are facing huge "grey rhinoceros" risks. In order to cope with these risks, all countries must help each other and move forward hand in hand.

How to prevent it

Behind every black swan incident, there is a huge grey rhinoceros crisis. In the book "Grey Rhino", Michelle Walker gives the strategy to deal with the risk (crisis) of grey rhinoceros:

First of all, we should acknowledge the existence of the crisis.

Secondly, it is necessary to clarify the risk nature of grey rhinoceros.

Third, don't stand still, that is, don't stand still in front of the impact.

Fourth, don't waste the crisis that has happened, but really learn from the disaster.

Fifth, we should stand downwind, keep our eyes on the distance, accurately predict the seemingly distant risks in the distance, get rid of hesitation, and optimize the decision-making and action process.

Sixth, the person who discovers the risk of gray rhinoceros can be the person who controls the risk of gray rhinoceros.