The Magic 60 Days of Shanghai Real Estate Market: 10 people grab a house, the landlord frequently jumps in price, and the customers buy in

Like other people who plan to stay in Shanghai, progress, development, and greater space are always the key words in Zheng Kaixi’s life, and the signature on the house deed seems to be the only mark that can mark it. A mark of all your efforts.

Text | Zhu Kailin

Editor | Chu Ming

Operation | Xiaoxiao

In the last month of 2020, Rebecca was the most Dreading the weekend. Weekends are the time when people who are anxious to buy a house gather to view houses. The stairwells are crowded with house watchers and agents, who walk around Shanghai with large deposits in hand. Houses in better locations will basically be snatched up before the weekend. Rebecca is 9 months pregnant. She was looking at houses in Shanghai with a bulging belly, walking 10,000 to 20,000 steps a day, and her mood was like riding a roller coaster. When I was most anxious, I couldn't sleep all night, and I had to go to work with a heavy belly the next day.

In November, the couple sold their only house and planned to replace it with another. Her husband forwarded an article on a public account to Rebecca with a sensational title: "I have 10 million, but I can't buy a house in Shanghai." "After reading it, I thought it was hypocritical. How could it be possible? But I soon discovered that it was really like this. Later, the more we looked at it, the more expensive it became. When the budget was increased from eight to nine million to ten million, it was difficult to find a house we wanted."

At 9 pm on January 21, Shanghai issued an emergency new regulatory policy to combat the overheated property market. In the past few months, the Shanghai property market was extremely hot: landlords repeatedly jumped in price and were reluctant to sell their properties; intermediaries sensationally shouted that "in two months, there will be no second-hand houses for sale in Shanghai"; new properties entering the market in December must be followed by at least three people To grab a suite, popular properties may even require 10 people to grab one, and there is also a threshold for raising funds.

In the past three years, Shanghai’s property market has been at a trough due to the impact of the 2016 “Shanghai Nine” purchase and loan restriction policies. The topic of houses has not been brought to the forefront in Shanghai for a long time. It is one of the largest commodities that humans can consume and is a witness to the changes in personal life. For many young people who have just arrived in this city, the house supports the belief that hard work will be rewarded and is also a goal.

The real estate market is changing rapidly. People living in this city are suddenly pushed into this market in advance and have to reconsider the specific location and price of their future roots.

In a certain real estate sales center, home buyers queue up to submit lottery materials. Picture/cfp

"Breathe" with the market

Liu Aiwen has been a real estate agent in Shanghai for 7 years. The order that impressed him most was last month, when he took a customer to see A second-tier school district house located in the city center. The landlord jumped the price by 100,000 yuan on the spot. While the customer was hesitating, the landlord had already answered the call from another agent - "Do you want to talk? I'll drive to pick you up." The second team rushed to the scene and started tug-of-war. Liu Aiwen said that in all the years he has been working as an intermediary, such a scene has rarely happened: a group of clients sit in a conference room and negotiate separately.

According to Liu Aiwen's estimation, the recent growth of the Hongqiao, Changning, and Xuhui sectors he is responsible for has been about 15% or more. "What is this concept? The turnover rate is very high, and people panic when they see it. I didn't originally plan to All the customers who just needed to change came out. The first wave was the epidemic, which greatly stimulated the "mid-to-high-priced" customers with a total price of more than 7 million to buy better and more private houses. The new house market was booming. Customers who are unable to get a lottery number have flowed into the second-hand housing market."

There is no shortage of houses for sale in Shanghai - this long-term impression has begun to put a question mark in the minds of many people. Since about November last year, information has been circulating that "Shanghai will have no houses to buy in two months." Sometimes it’s a circle of friends from an agency, sometimes it’s a picture in an article on a public account that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Since there are no clear real-time statistics on the second-hand housing market, the most commonly quoted statement comes from data from Beike House Search: "Shanghai's existing second-hand housing inventory is 42,000 units, which is currently about 27,000 units per month (it reached 39,000 units in December 2020). 10,000 units), in two months there will be no second-hand houses for sale in Shanghai.

”

In fact, although the number of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai in 2020 has rebounded compared to the past three years, the transaction volume of 300,000 units is only the same as in 2013 and is lower than the peaks in 2015 and 2016. There is still a shortfall of 60,000 units. In the land market, Shanghai is also increasing the transaction volume of commercial residential land year by year. The transaction area in 2020 was 9.28 million square meters, nearly three times that of 2018. Housing prices are rising and landlords are reluctant to sell. The main reason for the illusion that “there is no house to buy in Shanghai”

Liu Aiwen’s explanation for “no house to buy” is, “A house that could be bought for 10 million six months ago now costs 12 million. There are still houses available, but if the customer still has the same mentality as six months ago, he will not be able to match a satisfactory house. "

He often advises clients: You have to "breathe" with the market. To put it bluntly, it means buying in.

Emotions are contagious, and all people in the game are influencing each other. . Those who call for a united front in the property owner group and raise prices are nicknamed "house price patrols". They will find the person with the lowest listing price in the community and ask them to increase the price online for 4 years. For some property owners who previously bought houses at "high points", this wave of market conditions is a good opportunity for them to get out of trouble.

The Yuqiao section in Pudong has always been a housing price depression on the Central Ring Road because of the nearby houses. The high-voltage wires and waste incineration plant were nicknamed the "High-voltage Wire Legend" in property market forums. In mid-September, the owners of Hailu Legend were excited about a house sold at a unit price of 74,000 yuan, which gave them hope: " They all hung up on me, up to 85,000. "Now there are 6 houses in this community listed on the platform, with the highest price reaching 120,000. With the concerted efforts of the corresponding school districts and property owners, "Legend of High Voltage Lines" has also turned around.

Legend of the Sea is near One-year price trend. Picture/Internet

Li Yu, who works in a consulting company, has been working in Shanghai for more than 4 years. After the National Day, he started looking at houses and bought a new house before the housing prices soared. . During this process, people around him gradually started talking about the issue of rising house prices. Location, the king of the real estate industry, was also questioned in Shanghai at the end of the year - it was said that the housing prices in the school district near Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park were already comparable to those in Pudong. A riverside luxury house; a colleague planned to buy a house in the outer ring of Pudong, but it increased by 2 million in one month. “Now the house price has nothing to do with the location, you can’t understand it at all. ”

Basically all the houses collected in Li Yu’s mobile phone have been sold. His hometown is in Changzhou, he is 27 years old, and his colleagues around him who are about the same age all have similar plans to him: forever. It’s an upward path to make more money and move to a better place.

For those young people who desperately want to stay in this city, Shanghai is a world away. “You don’t. When you enter this market and actually look at properties, you cannot experience this kind of madness. "Zhejiang native Kaisi Zheng has been in Shanghai for nearly ten years. She describes herself as "coming from the countryside." One day while taking a taxi, she asked the driver: "Master, how are the recent housing prices in your Yangpu District?" Has it risen sharply? I asked because Yangpu District has good educational resources. As a result, the other party had no idea about this: "I don't know, is there one?"

"Sincerity" has a price

When did Shanghai's property market start to "skyrocket"? of? Everyone has their own observed signals. But many people mentioned that they were deeply impressed by the "God Pan" Panlong World.

Like Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities, buying a new house in Shanghai also requires a deposit and then a lottery, which is commonly known as "buying a new house." In October, Panlong Tiandi launched 948 suites in one go. After the four-and-a-half-day subscription period, 3,715 groups of customers subscribed, setting a new record for the highest number of subscriptions for a real estate project in Shanghai.

This is a residential area far to the west of Shanghai, Xujing Panlong Ancient Town, further west than Hongqiao Airport. The developer's packaging uses the following words: "See the surging dividends of the development of the Yangtze River Delta." Not far away, the Hongqiao Business District has already settled in nearly 3,000 companies, including Shell, Alibaba, Huawei, and Toyota.

After nearly 2,000 people "accompanied" Panlong Tiandi, other nearby projects in the Hongqiao area became popular. When Wang Jie rushed to Dahongqiao to view the house, the salesperson's voice was already hoarse.

Wang Jie reports on real estate in a Shanghai media. Years of reporting experience have given her a keen awareness of the trends in the Shanghai property market. When she saw the price of land auctions in Shanghai rising in June and July, she immediately put her house on the market. During the National Day, she found a buyer and cashed out more than 2 million yuan. Together with the money she took out from the stock market, she started preparing to "buy a new house."

This was her first time to come to the room selection site. In a five-star hotel, people waiting in line to select rooms were standing from the lobby to the second floor. The number Wang Jie got for the first time was ranked over 700, and she couldn't even get into the room she chose. The salesperson quickly came out to inform everyone that more than 600 numbers had been liquidated. The second time, she drew more than 600 numbers and decided to try her luck.

The excruciating wait lasted until 5 o'clock in the evening. Finally, more than 500 numbers were called - only to hear a sales voice coming from the room: "Do you want this house on the third floor? Do you want it?" Wang Jie heard the man say: "Yes!" Then, There was a sound of gongs and drums. After a while, the dozen or so people who entered "instantly" divided up the last dozen or so apartments. "Those of us waiting outside were speechless."

On January 19, Wang Jie The number was drawn for the third time and it took 5 seconds to select the house. ——She followed the instructions and entered the room selection system. 20 seconds was the time when these houses belonged to her alone. After 20 seconds, the system will let a customer come in and be selected together. She knew this was a common sales tactic. In fact, she didn't need to spend another second to hesitate.

The popularity of new projects gradually spread to the whole city. Statistics from Tongce Consulting show that in December 2020, there were more than 30 new housing projects launched in Shanghai, of which 13 projects had more than 1,000 subscribers. Some properties in poor locations and with poor sales in the past have also become "the last train that needs to be boarded as soon as possible".

Customers who visited the Panlong Tiandi city showroom on the first day of its opening. Picture / Panlong Tiandi official website

Amid the heightened emotions, developers rely on increasing subscription fees and payment cycles to screen customers. Many sales offices now only accept customers who have subscribed. The house watcher with the room ticket in hand discovered that "sincerity" has a price.

At the sales office of the luxury property Sunac Xuhui Binjiang No. 1, the "sincerity" price is 6 million yuan in cash and a 7 million yuan asset freeze certificate. Sunac Xuhui Binjiang No. 1 finally attracted 1,051 groups of customers who subscribed. In other words, the "sincerity" alone was worth 6 billion yuan, far exceeding the total value of the property.

The boom in the new home market is driven both by demand for improvements and investment. There are 85 groups of corporate customers among Panlong Tiandi’s customers, which is one of the signals of the appearance of investors.

More funds flowed into the Shanghai property market. Part of it comes from demolition compensation in Shanghai. In 2020, Shanghai completed 753,000 square meters of renovation, reaching 137% of the original plan, and a target of 700,000 square meters was set for 2021. Another part comes from additional currency issuance around the world. In a loose monetary environment, buying a house is considered by many to be an effective means of fighting inflation.

Staying in Shanghai

During the four years she lived in Shanghai, Jiangsu native Liu Beibei developed a habit: halfway through her walk, she would stop and look at the real estate agency’s window sign. She lives in the Pudong Century Avenue area, which is close to the Lujiazui Financial District. At first, there were houses with an area of ??70,000 to 80,000 square meters in the windows. By 2020, they were basically priced at 100,000. Later, those intermediaries wrote the square numbers on the signs very small, "a little bit larger", and then wrote a total price to cover up the cruel reality of increasing the price without increasing the quantity.

Against the background of frequent competition for people in second-tier cities, the intensity of competition for people in first-tier cities is also escalating. In September last year, Liu Beibei saw the news that "985 college undergraduates can directly settle in Shanghai" - which was later interpreted as Shanghai issuing thousands more "room tickets".

In order to avoid 996 in China, Liu Beibei has a new plan for herself. She and her newly engaged boyfriend decided to "change their coding (agriculture)" and study abroad. Before going abroad, my boyfriend, who had full settlement points, had just obtained his Shanghai household registration, and the two families discussed buying a house in a school district in Shanghai. Firstly, it was a first-hand preparation for returning to China in the future. Secondly, it was also an investment. After all, studying abroad is expensive.

In November, Liu Beibei arrived in Boston first. Her boyfriend still stayed in Shanghai to apply for settlement, and Liu Beibei's mother was stationed in her hometown of Changzhou. The three people have a clear division of labor: the mother is responsible for searching for a house online, Liu Beibei selects the house remotely in the United States, and the boyfriend takes the time to go see the house on the spot. When the market is bullish, the communication efficiency with time difference is really low.

"My eyes have been red and bloodshot these past two days." Liu's time zone is 1 o'clock midnight. "The suffering of a coder. I have been overusing my eyes recently and am afraid of light. I squint one eye every night and send a message to my mother in the middle of the night. Often the agent will give her a house. If I find it good, I will wait for her the next day. , the house has been sold. I am anxious every day, worried that I will not be able to afford a house when I wake up the next day."

When the signals of the hot property market are gradually transmitted, I am at the end of the market. Young people are more likely to fail in emotional management.

Although there are still 3 months to get the "room ticket", Zhang Lei, who is engaged in brand public relations industry, the agency will come to say hello from time to time on WeChat. "Come to me and chat when you have nothing to do - 'How's your hukou going? It's rising very fast now. If you want to buy a house, remember to come to me.' It makes me very irritated, as if the whole universe knows that housing prices in Shanghai are rising. Those real estate public accounts It is also inciting anxiety to a certain extent.”

On December 21, Xu Yu, who graduated with a doctorate last year and settled in Shanghai, wrote to the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration, calling on Shanghai to follow the example of cities such as Hangzhou and Shenzhen and give priority to households without housing. Strictly investigate cases of buying a house after divorce and taking out a business loan to buy a house. He said in the letter that he started preparing for a wedding room in May, and he had drawn the number four times in six months but failed to win. He obviously couldn't hold it in anymore, and the letter ended with an exclamation: If a city wants to develop, introducing and retaining people are the key!

A month later, a Shanghai property market policy was released that included several measures including "strictly controlling fake divorce house purchases" and "priority for those without houses in the lottery for new houses."

Many people who were eager to place bets in this game stopped and squeezed the chips and dice in their hands. The WeChat group for mutual communication is full of question marks, trying to understand the future development. Some couples who have already gone through the divorce procedures and paid millions in deposits for their second homes are plunged into gloom and gloom - just a few days ago, the smiling scene at the divorce registration office was a joke. Those Shanghainese who really got divorced lost their qualifications to buy houses for three years, and the details of the value-added tax also affected a large number of home buyers.

Goal, house

"I was taking my time before, and I just sold the house I live in on the last day of the New Year holiday." When I ran to see the new house, I realized that the market was already so crazy. I got a little anxious. The couple discussed whether they should order a house as soon as possible. "Otherwise, if the money they just got is kept in their hands, if the prices outside continue to rise, they will be in vain in one or two years."

They quickly locked in a house in a school district far away in Jiading New Town, but they needed to prepare a down payment of 2.8 million yuan. The landlord and their situation were reversed. They had just signed a second house and were eager to cash in. .

After work on January 21, my husband told Kaisi Zheng that he had already decided to mortgage the house in his hometown, and he had contacted the intermediary properly, so he could get the loan within a few days. As a result, after an hour or two, the policy came.

"Let's wait and see, don't be in a hurry." The couple discussed.

But at the same time, Zheng Kaixi began to seize every opportunity to chat with people about houses, "According to your understanding, after the new policy comes down, will the mentality of the people who just need it be the same as mine? Are you waiting and seeing? Do you think it will be accepted?" What will happen next? ”

Unable to buy a house that he was satisfied with, Zheng Kaixi once fell into frustration and regretted that he had not studied the market earlier. That's why when she heard that a new nine-year consistent school was being built in Jiading, she immediately went to see a house with her husband. Although Jiading is far away in the northwest corner of Shanghai, the "school district" blessing caused the price of the house they were interested in to surge within a week. The couple heard that this school was a "key introduction" branch of a prestigious school, and tried to seize this opportunity and purchase a house in a "rising" school district in advance.

The importance of housing in school districts is related to the "citizen recruitment" and "private lottery" policies announced by the Shanghai Education Commission in March last year. Teachers in Shanghai's private primary and secondary schools have always been better than those in public schools. Once private schools also participate in the lottery, the situation changes suddenly, and many parents switch to public schools, which have greater certainty.

"We all rely on reading to take root in Shanghai, so we all attach great importance to education." Zheng Kaixi, who does foreign trade business, lives in Pudong and knows a lot about the various aspects of his neighbors: Upstairs The one living there graduated from Peking University, and others graduated from Tsinghua University, as well as professors from Jiaotong University and teachers from Fudan... Talking about these peers working in Huawei, Pinduoduo, SAP, and Cisco, Zheng Kaixi felt very sad. "We seem to have high salaries, and some have annual incomes of over one million, but if you don't have a family background, you can't afford the down payment of a house in a school district."

In the past few years, everyone's income has slowly caught up. , "Anyone who has some ability wants to squeeze in and work harder to send his children to a slightly better school. You will be moved. You will think, why are you still here?" I will give birth to my second child this year. Zheng Kaixi is more determined to change the school district housing.

Like other people who plan to stay in Shanghai, progress, development, and greater space are always the key words in Zheng Kaixi’s life, and the signature on the house deed seems to be the only mark that can mark it. A mark of all your efforts.

Having settled the major matter of changing houses before the Spring Festival, Rebecca finally stabilized her mood. However, she was still not satisfied with the orientation of the new house, so she began to think about how to solve the lighting problem: buying a dryer to completely free up the balcony. Of course, she also began to imagine her future life. "The key is that the new house we bought is in a very good location, and there are Duozhuoyu Bookstore and Tsutaya Bookstore nearby." When she said this, her tone became happy.

Zhang Lei is still waiting and watching. When he officially settles in April this year, his name and the company he works for will appear on the public list like all other new Shanghainese. He has already planned to buy a house as soon as he settles down.

Although agents come to greet him every day, Zhang Lei said that he has not been too anxious recently. Only when he is really qualified to be thrown into the lottery for a new house, and when he holds the house ticket but cannot win the lottery, he said, the peak of anxiety may be coming.

A certain property in Shanghai is about to open (average price 120,000 per square meter), and there are many people who have come to view the property. Figure / cfp