The three northeastern provinces lost 427,300 people a year. Can comprehensive liberalization of population and childbearing solve the negative population growth?

my country’s population decline is undoubtedly an iron-clad fact, so the full liberalization of birth restrictions is also an inevitable result. From family planning to "two children alone" to universal two children, family planning policies are also constantly adjusted with changes in economic and social development. The official website of the National Health Commission recently published a reply to the suggestions of the National People's Congress deputies, saying that the Northeast region can explore and propose pilot plans for implementing a comprehensive family planning policy based on local realities. As soon as the news came out, it aroused public attention.

The three northeastern provinces are the areas with the most severe population decline in our country. The harsh climate conditions and the economy are also related to a certain extent. However, this is just a typical example of my country's population decline. Moreover, it is similar across the country, and coincidentally, , the population decline cycle that began in 2000 coincided with the 20 years of vigorous development of China's real estate.

Take Zhengzhou’s housing prices as an example. It has entered a straight-line upward cycle since 2000. At this time, the national birth rate has also entered a long-term decline channel. The current birth rate is even close to the population during the natural disaster in 1960. birth rate. Moreover, our current population base is much larger than it was then, which is a very dangerous signal. After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy in 2015, the birth rate has rebounded. From 2015 to 2016, the stock market rose and the birth rate increased from 12.1 to 13%. In 2017, it dropped to a 50-year low. It can be seen that the birth rate has little to do with policy. Coincidentally, 2015 to 2017 happened to be the two years when my country’s housing prices doubled. This is not a coincidence. During the bear market from 2016 to 2018, housing prices across the country almost doubled, and in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, they doubled several times. During this period, the birth rate dropped from 13% to a record low of 10.9%!

It seems that high housing prices are the real factor limiting the number of births. The rise of the stock market is the best medicine to promote human prosperity! Obviously the management is aware of this problem, but considering that real estate has tied up the Chinese economy and involves systemic risk issues, the strategy implemented is mainly to stabilize housing prices. It is impossible to increase the price. If it continues to increase, the Chinese people will become extinct. .

Although the index-level bull market from last year to now is a bit extreme, after all, the management is not very professional. We can all understand this. The good thing is that the rise of the index has attracted a lot of funds to enter the market. As we mentioned above Let’s talk about it, a full bull market this year is just around the corner.

In terms of current policy, it is reported that the three northeastern provinces may be the first in the country to implement the "comprehensive liberalization of family planning policy", and the second-child concept sector is expected to benefit. This sector has been speculated before, between single second-child and comprehensive It has performed well during the second child, so the favorable policies this round should also cause speculation.

Some experts say that once the desire to have children drops, it is difficult to increase it. Population loss and declining birth rate are the two main reasons for negative population growth in Northeast China. Once the desire to have children drops, it will be difficult to increase it. The Health Commission's reply also pointed out that the fertility policy in the northeastern border areas is actually relatively loose. For example, Heilongjiang Province stipulates that couples who are residents of border areas can have three children, but their willingness to have children is not high.

Northeast China also has some characteristics, such as a high proportion of state-owned economy. It turns out that the effect of our birth control policy is relatively obvious. In this way, we formed a problem prematurely. I call it "rigidity of fertility desire", which means that once a person's fertility desire drops, it is difficult to increase it. The benefits that we now bring to our families by having children are constantly weakening, but the costs continue to increase, so once people’s desire to have children drops, it is difficult to increase it.

The fertility policy can only work within the effective scope of its policy. Outside of its policy scope, at this time, it means that if it solves the problems of our social and economic development, it may not be enough. Experts say that it is very necessary to fully liberalize birth control, and whether it can be done faster and in a wider scope. Therefore, fertility policies and even some other policies other than population policies need to be implemented comprehensively. The National Health Commission pointed out that economic and social factors have become important factors affecting fertility, especially in terms of financial burden, infant care and female career development. The public's response is particularly prominent, and the impact of fertility policies on fertility behavior has been greatly weakened.