Don't lose heart, the automobile industry will still make money in 2020!

Although the epidemic has seriously affected the development of the automobile industry, the 2020 Beijing Auto Show at the end of September was rather gloomy and tragic. But practitioners in the automobile industry can breathe a sigh of relief. Recently, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the profit of domestic automobile manufacturing industry from June 5438 to July was 25 1.45 billion yuan, down 5.9% from last year. However, the good news is that the decline rate is 14.8 percentage points lower than that in June. Relevant persons of the National Development and Reform Commission recently made a public statement: It is estimated that the marketing income, operating income, total profit and growth value of the automobile industry may reach the level of last year in 2020.

In other words, despite being hit by the epidemic, the automobile industry in 2020 is still very tough, and its profitability will not be worse than that in 20 19! Automobile industry practitioners have experienced hardships in the first half of the year, and it may be time for them to "come too early" in the second half!

The automobile industry has become the main force of consumption recovery.

The automobile industry is known as "Golden September and Silver 10", and the performance in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter is the focus of the whole year. This year's "Golden September and Silver 10" has been advanced to August. The data shows that in August, domestic automobile sales achieved rapid growth, with the total retail sales reaching 3410.30 billion yuan, up1/0.8% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of narrow passenger cars (that is, passenger cars bought by ordinary people) was 6,543,800+0.7 million, an increase of 9%.

Year-on-year growth 1 1.8% What is the concept? Let's just say. Against the background of great strategic achievements in epidemic prevention and control, with the continuous release of consumption potential, China finally achieved the "growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods" for the first time in August. What is the positive rate? Not much, just 0.5%.

▲ The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased year-on-year, and turned positive for the first time in August, with an increase of 0.5%.

In other words, the growth of total automobile retail sales exceeded the industry's 1 1.3 percentage points. It can be said that it has contributed to the positive growth rate of the whole industry.

This contribution is also reflected in the huge volume of the automobile industry, which has a particularly high weight in all industries. For example, the total retail sales of automobiles in August was 34 1.3 billion yuan, far ahead of all types of retail sales of goods above designated size. The retail sales of petroleum and products ranked second was 148 1 billion yuan (down 14.5% year-on-year), and the grain, oil and food ranked third was 1 18 1 billion yuan (up 4.2% year-on-year). In the rest of August, the retail sales were between 100 billion-100 billion, such as tobacco and alcohol, gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment, daily necessities, building decoration materials, etc.

In the total retail sales data of social consumer goods released by the Bureau of Statistics in August, if calculated by industry, the only thing that can exceed the income of the automobile industry belongs to the catering industry. In August, it reached 36 19 billion yuan (but the growth rate was negative).

Therefore, the volume is huge, and the growth rate is the first to reach double digits. The positive impact of the recovery of the automobile industry on the consumer market cannot be overemphasized. On the other hand, it is not difficult to understand why relevant guiding policies to stimulate consumption will be introduced every time. There is always a separate paragraph or chapter about the automobile industry. Why under the epidemic situation, many places have to introduce separate policies to stimulate automobile consumption (according to statistics, more than 50% provinces and cities have implemented separate automobile consumption policies).

The automobile industry does not occupy land resources (factories are all in the outer suburbs), does not raise the price index (prices only fall but do not rise), does not affect people's livelihood (no car does not delay eating and going to work), and can also stimulate a large wave of upstream and downstream industries. Almost everyone said yes. It's really a golden doll that everyone loves.

The vast number of practitioners and car buyers in the automobile industry can also proudly say: we are the main force to fight the epidemic and stimulate consumption!

Is there a good life behind the automobile industry?

Recently, the relevant person of the National Development and Reform Commission said in a forum that it is expected that the operation of the automobile industry will be better than expected this year and it is expected to return to the overall level of last year. The person in charge said that although the sales volume may be a little worse, "marketing income, operating income, total profit and growth value may all reach the level of last year".

The data shows that the total profit of the automobile industry from June 5438 to July this year was 25 1.45 billion yuan, which was about 50% lower than the total profit of 508.68 billion yuan last year. Seven months, more than half of the profits, this data seems not very good.

However, there is another data. From June to August this year, the total retail sales of automobile consumer goods reached 2,289 billion yuan, down only 8.8% year-on-year. In other words, the huge gap caused by the epidemic in June 5438+10-March (sales volume decreased by more than 40% year-on-year) has been reduced to only 8.8%, which is really a great victory.

The peak season of the automobile industry is in the last four months. If we maintain a relatively large growth rate in the last four months, the automobile industry can overcome the epidemic and achieve a year-on-year decline, and we can expect to hand over a beautiful answer sheet.

This is reasonable:

Reason 1: The color of "Golden September and Silver 10" is undiminished. China Passenger Car Association predicts that the narrow passenger car market will reach 65,438+0,965,438+0.5 million in September, up 8% year-on-year.

Reason 2: At the end of the year, with the intensive development of auto shows in various places, coupled with the Beijing Auto Show and the Guangzhou Auto Show, auto manufacturers will increase the launch of new cars, product updates and terminal promotions, which will greatly enhance people's attention to automobile consumption.

Reason 3: According to the market research of the Association, the overall preferential margin of the automobile market in September was 16%, which was larger than that in August. This proves that the general idea of automobile manufacturers is to seize the opportunity and strive to sprint the annual sales target when the "Jin Jiu" comes, and there is no idea of giving up in advance. The marketing actions of mainstream automobile manufacturers will be more frequent and active.

Reason 4: Statistics show that the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased by 0.5% year-on-year. Among the 18 commodities above designated size, the retail sales of 14 commodities increased year-on-year. The consumer market continues to recover, the income of all walks of life increases, and the overall expectation is improving. In the next few months, people will have more and more confidence in buying a car.

Finally?

On the other hand, the epidemic has no impact on the automobile industry at all. That's impossible. In my opinion, the biggest impact is that through this epidemic, the automobile industry as a whole has come to a big "slimming". A number of low-quality zombie car enterprises and low-quality production capacity in the third and fourth lines were eliminated (about 20 or 30), and their monthly sales fell to 100 or even zero, basically announcing delisting. The market share of first-and second-tier brands has been further improved, and the overall market concentration has been further improved. For example, from June to August this year, the total market share of the top 15 car companies was 78.4%, and in August this year, the overall market share of these 15 car companies rose to 79. 1%. This proves that the China automobile market can't accommodate so many brands, and the epidemic has accelerated the process of "slimming".

In the case that the China market is close to 20 million vehicles, if we only talk about passenger cars, the remaining 20 car companies will reach a reasonable scale. From this perspective, this epidemic is not a bad thing for China's automobile industry, just as it is getting stronger and stronger after illness.

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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.