Demand-side reform is coming, how to seize the historic opportunity? Speak clearly in simple English.

I thought that few people would be interested in such a grand proposition as supply side and demand side, but the last question and answer about supply side got more than 3 million hits in a short time, and the discussion was very enthusiastic. It is also welcome to explain difficult concepts clearly and clearly in vernacular.

The last article was written for two days, so it happened that the top-level meeting produced heavy content, and this time the demand-side reform was put in the first place.

Looking back on 20 15, when the strategic proposition of supply-side reform was first put forward, everyone was a little confused, and people today may not be clear about this issue. However, great changes have taken place in the fields involved in supply-side reform in recent years. From 20 16 to 20 17, steel and coal stocks, high-tech stocks from 20 19, and a number of white horse stocks rose so high that everyone doubted life. A witty person can avoid the decapitated knife and climb the golden steps.

So this time, we can't fall behind, follow the strategic baton and take a good look at the demand-side reform.

Last time we talked about the supply side, we mentioned the demand side. Supply-side tube production, demand-side tube consumption, all areas of spending money can be included in the demand side, the words are as simple as that.

However, from the perspective of a common people, demand-side reform is even more unavoidable. There are many problems on your supply side that need to be reformed, and the reasons and methods for correcting these problems can be clearly stated. In a word, you can't recreate what no one wants, or you must create what the whole world is fighting for.

In order to achieve these goals, what are destocking, deleveraging and innovation ... these are either matters of the state or enterprises, and ordinary people can't help much. I spend money on the demand side. When something good comes out, I'll pay the bill. Now we need demand-side reform. What should we change? Self-remoulding?

I don't quite understand, do I? Then let's make the connotation of demand side clear. The last article clarified the relationship between troika investment, foreign trade and (domestic) consumption and supply side in China's economic development. But supply and demand are like good friends holding hands. The implementation of demand should also revolve around these three horses. Investment is spent by the state and capital, export by foreign financiers and domestic consumption by us.

There are two preconditions for spending money, one is to spend money, and the other is to have money to spend, that is, to have the willingness and ability to spend.

Therefore, the demand-side reform, no matter what complicated and profound terms are used to explain it, is carried out around the two major premises of Sanma, and it is aimed at solving all the problems that rich dads, including us, are unhappy with spending money.

Well, if the concept is clear, let's go on to say why we should carry out demand-side reform.

Let's start with three horses, 1 horse investment.

As I said before, all kinds of national investments are also spending money to some extent, taking it from the people and using it for the people, creating an environment where it is easier to make money and spend money. The growth of investment has an immediate effect on improving GDP.

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, especially after the reform, we have been talking about making up old accounts. Roads and bridges, industrial systems, hospitals and schools, cultural and sports facilities, water conservancy and disaster prevention, national defense and military affairs, etc. From a box of matches that could not be made at that time to the most complete industrial system in the world, the high-speed rail network, power supply network and water conservancy facilities with the scale of Top 1 ...; From the early days of the founding of the People's Republic, the average life expectancy was only 40 years old to 70 years old now; The level of urbanization is close to 60% of that of developed countries ... and so on. In recent years, everyone has the opportunity to go abroad. From the initial admiration to the present, the direct perception is more reliable than the data.

These great changes did not fall from the sky, but were piled up by a large number of investments, which were made by hardworking China people brick by brick. However, in recent years, the growth rate of all kinds of fixed assets investment has declined as a whole. In other words, the money began to spend slowly, which is understandable. Old scores have almost been made up in the way of developed countries abroad, and even families have gone more and more streets. At this time, should I open a new account, or continue to copy in the format of the old account?

For example, your township roads have reached every village. Is it necessary to connect high-speed rail and expressway to every village? The level of urbanization has reached more than 60%, which means that all the necessary facilities in the city are behind the level of developed countries 10% or more. If we are still trying to build a new city, are we waiting to become a ghost town? When we talk about the supply side, we talk about the concept of space filling. Now we are in the stage where traditional investment is slowing down and saturated.

Just as you buy clothes for personal consumption, the earliest brothers took turns wearing a dress; In the coming new year, you can have a new dress of your own. You don't have to be careful when buying clothes in the future; Up to now, I don't know which one to wear in a wardrobe. After a certain critical point, the efficiency of investment and consumption will drop sharply. If you buy too much, it will be a big deal. Large-scale investment will go astray, and increasing debts at all levels will have no effective return, which will hurt the bones. There are too many lessons in the past. Therefore, repeated investment and blind investment have been particularly fierce in recent years, so it is better to slow down the development. This shows that the previous investment direction is no longer feasible, and going on is an infinite cycle.

In this regard, there is actually a close causal relationship between the supply side and the demand side.

The second horse is foreign trade.

We used to know that if you want to be rich, you should raise fewer children and more pigs. Well, this sentence may be wrong. If you want to be rich, you should build roads first.

In recent years, along the Belt and Road, as well as underdeveloped areas such as Africa, Southeast Asia and South America, we have vigorously exported infrastructure capacity, built bridges, paved roads, dams and laid nets, and all kinds of buildings and halls have covered the construction of the new capital of Egypt. Is it a waste of water, as some people say? From our own development, we can draw a conclusion that upgrading infrastructure is the only way to promote development. Our global invincible comprehensive production capacity of industrial products depends on global consumer demand. Under the fierce competition, the stock is so large. It is also a national tide model to improve one's ability to earn money and consume, and a global demand-side reform.

The third horse is domestic consumption demand, which is the focus we want to talk about.

Because it is closely related to everyone, it is easier to understand from a personal point of view. This horse, we pull from the two preconditions of demand mentioned above, that is, demand will and demand ability.

Are we willing to spend money now? The contribution rate of terminal consumption to economic growth has exceeded 60%, and the state has also proposed to vigorously strengthen domestic consumption. The "double cycle" strategy put forward under the international and domestic situation focuses on domestic consumption demand, encourages praise and even cajoles you into spending, but what is the real consumption trend?

Looking at this intuitive picture, there is no doubt that it will go down step by step. The decline in the growth rate of consumer goods has exceeded the decline in GDP growth in recent years. This also clearly tells us that the total demand for goods has failed to keep up with the speed of economic development, which naturally means that our willingness and quantity to spend money are shrinking.

But why do we feel that the domestic consumption environment is still very hot? That's because the scenes where you usually go shopping in food markets, supermarkets and shopping malls are far less shocking than the numbers jumping on the big screen when you double 1 12. In other words, the consumption of a large number of physical stores has been transferred to e-commerce platforms, online celebrity live broadcasts, and friends' circle to bring goods. It looks very lively, but the data will not be falsified, and the total amount is really getting worse. Why?

1. Our daily consumption field is saturated. From poverty and poverty decades ago, the family has gradually stepped into a well-off society, with a house and a car, and all the places in the house are occupied. Ordinary people have no reason or need to spend a lot of money again and again. In addition, education, medical care, culture and art, finance and other service consumption are not involved in this picture, and the display of residents' overall consumption expenditure is incomplete.

Personally, there are fewer and fewer things to be consumed in batches these years. The house and car are not so easy to change, the home appliances are all available, and the daily expenses such as food, clothing, housing and transportation can basically remain unchanged. Now, apart from young people, who will take double 1 1 double 12 as a holiday?

2. Spending money is not enough, medical care, education, and old-age care. Although it may not be a problem at present, can you sleep at night without saving a sum of money there? The per capita savings rate of China residents is still high, but it is easy to be afraid of spending the money in the bank, unless people of all ages make proper arrangements for their future.

3. It is high housing prices. It is common to empty six wallets for a suite, and the average debt ratio of China people has reached 70%. The young couple borrowed money to buy a house and raise their children, and carefully calculated the remaining days. Let go of consumption and hope for the time being.

If all the above are platitudes, revealing some bitter water that I have no place to spend, dare not spend, and have no money to spend, then this meeting puts forward another major topic while emphasizing demand-side reform.

That is, what impact does the Internet have on our consumer demand environment?

At this meeting, I made a harsh remark, "Strengthening anti-monopoly, disorderly expansion of capital", and then recalled a series of previous events, such as "Ma has already taken over" and the management guidance for the big platform. The direction is very obvious. How did the platform fathers who were still in the limelight suddenly become targets?

How do we consume on the Internet? For example, if you search for a non-mainstream product depilatory cream, in the next few weeks, as long as you turn on the screen of your computer or mobile phone, regardless of the size and color of the platform, all kinds of depilatory products will be forced on you, just like a gorilla sitting in front of your computer. This is the current big data portrait and algorithm recommendation. This year's epidemic has made a large part of our parents, grandparents, develop the habit of online shopping and collecting information, and once they have experienced it, they can't stop.

China has formed the world's largest e-commerce platform and mobile payment network. Online shopping is really convenient, and you can deliver it to your door without leaving home. At the same time, it also makes you feel that the goods are cheaper than 10 thousand. The habit of chopping hands is deep-rooted and difficult to get rid of.

But unconsciously, some extremely terrible problems also appeared:

1. A large number of offline stores have died out. Especially in recent days, the most intense community shopping platform has replaced the topic of selling vegetables. The impact of online e-commerce on a large number of small businesses, vendors and shops is undoubtedly fatal. These are actually low-income groups.

2. As long as the platform is willing to recommend, (more often, high-flow recommendation is bought behind), the sales of an online store and a festival can exceed the stalls of hundreds of small stores. It is extremely terrible to break the consumption power of geographical restrictions and quickly converge to one point. There is no doubt that there is a reshaping of the business pattern behind this. What's the destination? Do you really want to go to all the shops to mourn together?

3. Settlers of online platforms, including business operators and producers, are also having a hard time. On the one hand, they promote sales at low prices and occupy a place among a large number of competitors; On the other hand, it is to exchange traffic and opportunities through bidding and commission. Even some manufacturers are faced with the choice of either "choosing one from the other" (they can't enter two platforms at the same time) or leaving.

4. Wealth is gathering to the Internet community at a high speed. On the one hand, by collecting the consumption dividend of a huge population, on the other hand, the listed market value of Internet vendors can exceed the total market value accumulated by national strategic industries such as banks, petrochemicals and aviation for decades overnight.

5. Take advantage of the huge amount of money easily available to buy various sub-sectors violently, which stifles the real economy and stifles the environment of innovation and competition. The fund is not to cooperate with the state to attack the high-end, but to use the monopoly advantage to kill all small business hawkers.

6. Use the increasingly sophisticated and huge customer database accumulated over the years to make various fancy profits and infringe on the rights and interests of consumers.

In addition, it can continue, but it boils down to two points: monopoly and the gap between the rich and the poor have been formed.

In the past, we said monopoly, or technological monopoly. For example, Qualcomm made Microsoft chips and windows. My product can decide the life and death of a company or even an industry. One is market monopoly, such as Russian natural gas, which is rich in resources and can make European countries tremble ahead of schedule every winter. In the world, monopoly enterprises, even those in their own countries, are generally not soft, and high fines and forced spin-off are common means. Because everyone knows that monopoly is a fatal threat to a country's industrial development.

The phenomenon of platform monopoly like ours is unique. General monopoly, at least one specific product, e-commerce is a platform. Even with a little technology, it is an application platform developed on the basis of others. Just like a shop, it sells other people's goods, and the whole country buys them, but it can only make huge profits at both ends, and it can also control the huge rights and interests of both sides. Originally, I hoped that the e-commerce platform would open up intermediate circulation links to benefit consumers. This time, an online owner came, which is even more embarrassing.

We all have to admit that the wide application of the Internet has brought great impetus to our social progress, but today, the risk early warning and warning from the top from the strategic level have already explained the seriousness of the problem.

On the other hand, under the background that the consumption of China residents is decreasing year by year, the consumption of luxury goods in China is growing rapidly. This year is a contrarian growth, accounting for more than 40% of the world, and the gap between the rich and the poor has obviously widened. Without improving the overall consumption capacity, it is impossible to boost the demand side of the country by relying on the wealth carnival of a few people, which is bound to be a consideration of demand-side reform.

Therefore, the problems faced by the demand-side reform are that no one buys second-hand goods, money is afraid to spend, and there are still problems in the sales channels.

How to implement supply-side reform? It is difficult to answer the question of demand-side reform methodology, because the supply side has been engaged in it for five years and it has achieved fruitful results, and it only needs to be refined from reality. Demand-side reform has just been highlighted, except for several key points of high-level adjustment, other specific steps have not yet been introduced. But only asking questions, analyzing problems, and not solving problems are playing tricks on cows for self-protection.

Let's learn the spirit of the meeting first.

Every word in this passage is not superfluous, but you can't understand it when you read it together, can you? Let me distill it into three sentences (useless), grasp the key points, solve the problems and find the right direction. The general trend of investment and foreign trade is too macro, so let these two horses follow. Let's focus on the field of personal consumption.

Get to the point. Since it is the focus of demand-side reform, let's first look at the big needs of the people.

1. house: This is the first big head, no one refutes it, right? The document lists real estate as a special project, which also shows the degree of attention. Many people didn't see the words "housing is not speculation", but they began to cheer when they saw "promoting the healthy development of housing consumption", saying that chamber pot would bring it up again.

As a real estate practitioner, no matter from the perspectives of policy, financial environment, housing demand and asset inheritance, the era when real estate grew wildly and became a reservoir of funds is gone forever.

So how can we promote the healthy development of housing consumption? "Don't speculate in real estate", every word is fateful! Housing consumption originally includes two main channels, one is to buy a house and the other is to rent a house, both of which can meet the demand for housing.

Now house prices are in a strange state. First-and second-tier cities and regional central cities can't resist the rising hijab and passion, and the third-and fourth-tier cities and the cities behind them inevitably fall sharply. The population and resources of big cities are pouring in, which is difficult to change in the short term. However, the situation of real estate kidnapping the economy cannot but change.

How to change it? Gun uses blocking to control water, and Dayu uses dredging to control water. As a result, one died and the other lived. You should treat real estate in the same way! Controlling house prices by limiting prices, loans and sales is blocking. Most people who are blocked will shake the number around the sales department in the middle of the night, and winning the lottery objectively promotes people's psychological expectations of soaring housing prices.

How sparse? The method is: the government-led housing rental market+the same right to rent and sell. Why do you say this method can solve the problem?

A.this house is for living. Buying or renting depends on the cost performance. In addition to the residential function, the current house is also bound with many additional values such as assets, settlement, education, medical care and development opportunities. Otherwise, people have worked hard to buy that reinforced concrete shell?

Eggshell rental has proved that it is a disaster for the rental market to be dominated by unprofitable capital, so we can only engage in public rental housing similar to Singapore. If the rented house can have the same rights as the bought house, why sacrifice the quality of life for so many years? Now the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are trying to get through social security. Does this mean creating conditions for future equal rights?

B. another fundamental reason why the real estate market continues to burn money is land price. How to turn one-off land sales revenue into long-term fiscal revenue? Can the property tax of buying a house, the vacancy tax and the rent of renting a house be balanced?

Imagine that when the right to rent and sell and a large number of government public rental housing enter the market in batches, the housing is solved, and then the cauldron of real estate speculation is all paid. Can we achieve the goal of healthy development of housing consumption, reduce the proportion of housing consumption and free people's money bags? Nothing in the world is difficult for one who sets his mind to it. That's not what I said. Who did you ask? Go to Baidu.

2. That car. Cars are also the bulk of our consumption. China ranked first in the world in car sales in consecutive years 10, and its car ownership was also the first in the world with 250 million cars. Of course, there is still a big gap between per capita and developed countries. However, it also faces old problems. Since 20 17, sales have been declining year by year, and people who want to buy a car have basically bought it. In addition, due to environmental pollution, traffic congestion and other reasons, many cities have also begun to take control measures such as restricting purchases and licenses.

The big head of real estate can no longer be desperately developed. Compared with the automobile, it is still a consumable, and the related industrial chain has obvious driving effect, so the potential demand in this field will erupt again. How to fix it? On the other track, it is also overtaking in the corner, and the direction is new energy vehicles.

As the world's new energy vehicle boss, Tesla gave Shanghai land and money. In exchange, he said: 100% localization rate, except that the brand is American, all the parts on the car are from China. This is also the lesson of traditional car companies. If you don't exchange the market for technology, then you can exchange real money for the industrial chain.

Many people are worried that this behemoth will destroy domestic new energy automobile enterprises. Looking back at high-speed rail, home appliances and mobile phones, once the complete industrial chain is locked, China enterprises will be difficult to handle.

China's new energy vehicles will be completely replaced in 2030. According to the plan, by then, the sales volume will account for 40%, the number of self-driving vehicles with conditions will reach 70%, and the automobile energy consumption will lead the world. New energy vehicles will dominate the world, that is, the sales of hundreds of millions of vehicles will drive the popularization and application of basic products such as steel, rubber, glass and electronic products, as well as high-tech standards such as batteries, new energy conversion devices, charging systems and driverless systems under the Internet of Things, which will open up a huge demand side.

As far as the capital market is concerned, some car companies and key enterprises in the industrial chain, which occupy the head scale and technical advantages, have fallen into the wine pool meat forest for at least 10 years.

3. Household appliances. Through home appliances to the countryside, traditional home appliances have become saturated in the market and entered the stage of stock renewal demand. To break through the bottleneck of demand, it is necessary to build smart home appliances based on 5G and the Internet of Things.

Smart home appliances are not ordinary home appliances with display screens. You clap your hands, the light will be so low. Do not pay attention to product functions, but focus on big data and intelligent platforms. You can search foreign science fiction movies if you have nothing to do. Maybe we'll do what they think first.

4. Rural system. Rural revitalization is one of the main engines of the next rapid development. We have just achieved all poverty alleviation, which is also a strategic layout to rapidly increase the income of rural population, significantly narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and release consumption potential.

China has a population of more than 700 million in rural areas and towns in Hou Xian County. How did Pinduoduo suddenly rise and quickly catch up with several platform bosses? Is to fight the battle of encircling the city from the countryside. Agricultural products are imported to cities quickly, and consumer goods enter the countryside at low prices. Cut a radish at both ends and dry it. Compared with other babies, the positioning is quite correct.

5. Enrich consumers' demand for cultural services. Cang Li is full of etiquette, warmth and culture. America's global harvest is enough for a big factory to work hard for a year. In fact, the demand in this area is far from being met, and it is still in the stage of rapid explosive growth.

Seeing this, many people think that I am stealing concepts. Aren't houses, cars, home appliances and agricultural products all products? Isn't it still the concept of supply side? In fact, they all have the same feature, not the upgrade of a single product in the past, but a brand-new consumption ecology. Simply put, it is the above-mentioned consumption ecology. Do you have a choice? Aren't you afraid of falling behind? In fact, it has opened up the consumption potential of millions of people, which is the essence of consumption upgrading that we often say. Why don't I mention any wine, food and medical care?

Similar ecosystems, such as 5 G, Beidou, big data and so on. , are the bottom independent basic platforms established by the state. See for yourself the seven major investment areas of new infrastructure. On these platforms, there will be a variety of new application scenarios, which will greatly change our future living conditions and consumption direction.

The supply-side reform was not initiated by China, but the demand-side reform was. Because of the guidance and change of this ecological consumption concept and living habits, we can complete it very efficiently and orderly, and it can be built as a systematic project. This is the starting point for us to open a new account. A few years later, I don't know who will shout to make up the old scores.

Solve the problem.

The problem to be solved is actually two points.

1. Increase actual income and reduce invalid expenditure. The capital occupation of housing prices and the worries of people's livelihood are systematic projects, so I don't need to say more here. As for how to increase income, in addition to rising with the development of society, more depends on oneself. Know the situation clearly, study hard, follow the future and seize the opportunity.

2. The second key problem is to straighten out all kinds of deposits in consumers' blood vessels. There is a sentence in the document that clearly States, "Improve the fair competition review mechanism and strengthen anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement".

Alibaba, Tencent (see article) and SF just received anti-monopoly tickets, each with a small fine of 500,000. The reason is that they didn't report in advance when they made the enterprise acquisition. Anti-monopoly, stop the disorderly expansion of funds, not for fun. How to implement it is demonstrated and implemented through this case.

I believe that the various phenomena of Internet platform e-commerce listed before will be gradually solved through self-examination and self-correction and external force correction, that is, once it starts, there is no turning back. Jenny stayed.

Find the right direction.

If you go in the wrong direction, no matter how fast you run, you will only get farther and farther away from your goal. "Strengthening the support of science and technology strategy and making the industrial chain self-controllable" is also clearly written in the document. The dispute between this kind of chip and 5G really hurts people, followed by meat pain, which is even worse.

When China is so powerful, the follow-up efforts will no longer be to safeguard the traditional territorial sovereignty, but to safeguard the scientific and technological sovereignty and economic sovereignty.

From covering new infrastructure, establishing a brand-new ecological cornerstone, and finally charging for rebuilding the world economic map ..... To open a new blue ocean of consumption, and then attack the sea of stars, there is only one technical weapon to attack: technological innovation.