How to interpret the city’s actual economy from its GDP?

I have been sorting and analyzing data for several years, and have been exposed to various economic indicators, such as GDP, taxation, finance, exports, fixed investment, labor regulation, social consumption, electricity consumption, per capita income, etc. However, due to the different standardization and standards of statistics in various places, there have always been many deviations in some important indicators.

For example, the regulated labor data compiled by Jushi has only been rectified by the National Bureau of Statistics in the past few years. In some provinces, the revenue and total profits of industries above designated size have been cut in half; the same is true for fixed investment, and the national The Bureau of Statistics is in the process of rectification. Judging from the data released by some cities, some have been cut in half or more than 30%. The same is true for GDP. In the past five or six years, provinces and cities have been recalculated and squeezed almost every year. There are still many regions (cities) whose GDP and basic data cannot be adapted, and they will be rectified one day.

So which economic indicators do you think are relatively credible and can reflect the true economic strength of a province (city)? Let me first talk about several data indicators that I think are relatively reliable and important. Domestic taxation or the three major taxes, and general budget revenue internal taxation

Tax data may not be true even 5 years ago. After two reforms: after the business tax-to-VAT reform and the merger of state and local taxes, it has basically been eliminated. The results were false reports, false increases and idle returns.

The Director of the State Administration of Taxation said that "the economy determines taxation, and taxation determines the economy", which shows the importance of taxation. The national unified market, unified tax system, tax reduction and exemption, etc. must be approved by the State Council. Therefore, except for a few regions and industries (certain industries in the west have a 15% corporate income tax discount, high-tech industries have a 15% corporate tax rate, enterprises under regulations have tax preferential rates, etc.), it can basically reflect the output and economic results of all industries in the region.

Of course, we must also analyze the industrial structure between regions. For example, cities with developed tertiary industries have lower taxes, while industrial cities have higher taxes (high industrial tax rates). In addition, large headquarters cities and provincial capital cities have different levels of tax absorption, mainly corporate income tax and personal income tax.

In my opinion, taxation is one of the indicators that best reflects the economic strength of a province (city)! Deposits and loans of financial institutions

The balance of financial deposits reflects each city's ability to absorb funds, investment and output intensity, etc. In particular, the competition between cities in the same category can certainly reflect the city’s potential and development trends. Capital flow is the most real, output intensity is strong, especially product output is large, and investors favor it. These are the most real.

The loan balance reflects the growth rate of investment. Many people misunderstand this data and think it is a liability. In fact, this is not the case. Most large-scale activities in the modern economy require loans, which can reflect the activity of various local investments. risk? What to do without risk? Reform and opening up also have risks, but it has allowed our country's economic development to this day! Moreover, all loans must be backed by assets, so there is no such thing as a free hand!

Of course, this data also has different degrees of money-attracting functions for large headquarters and provincial capitals, and cities of different levels cannot be directly compared. Residential electricity consumption and tertiary industry electricity consumption

Because the structural difference in industrial electricity consumption is too large, for example, Binzhou electricity consumption exceeds 100 billion kilowatt hours, but most of it is electrolytic aluminum energy consumption, and The value-added rate is extremely low. Therefore, industrial electricity consumption can only be compared in cities or regions with similar industrial structures.

Resident electricity consumption can reflect the scale of the city, and per capita residential electricity consumption can reflect the living standards of the region;

There are few structural differences in electricity consumption in the tertiary industry, and energy consumption has a low value-added rate. The financial industry, software information industry, real estate industry, etc. with high energy consumption are only less than multiples of the wholesale and retail industry and the traditional service industry with the highest energy consumption. What’s more, the scale of the former is not large. Overall, the average energy consumption of the tertiary industry in various regions Not much difference. Therefore, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry can reflect the scale of the service industry in various places, which is of great comparative significance especially for large and medium-sized cities. Per capita disposable income, consolidated industrial data, social security, etc.

Although per capita disposable income is sample data, the larger the sample deviation is smaller at the provincial level, I will write a special analysis later The composition of per capita disposable income is basically relatively reliable.

It can roughly reflect the income level of residents in a region (city).

After the regulated labor data was rectified by the National Bureau of Statistics, most provinces and cities have come close to the truth of the data, and only a few still have deviations. Therefore, we can roughly look at the industrial scale of various places through the latest scheduled labor revenue and total profits.

Social security can reflect the standardization of enterprises in various places, which is still relatively important in today's society.