What impact did climate change have on the history of China in the historical period?

1972, Zhu Kezhen wrote a paper "A Preliminary Study on Climate Change in China in Recent Five Thousand Years". On the basis of the snow map of ten thousand years drawn by Norwegian glaciologists and the Greenland temperature map of 1700 drawn by Danish scholars, according to the archaeological findings and phenological data of China, it is pointed out that the historical climate of China in 5000 years can be divided into four warm periods and four cold periods. This paper had a great influence, and later historians in China were inspired by this paper to study the historical climate of China. On June 5438+February 2004, an article entitled "Climate Change and War, Social Turbulence and Dynasty Change in China" was published in Science Bulletin. In this paper, the temperature change curve of the northern hemisphere in recent 1 150 years obtained by foreign scientists based on tree rings, lake boreholes, ice cores, corals and historical documents is quoted. Since 850, seven of the eight cold periods have led to the establishment and demise of the dynasty and the great turmoil of the country. In ancient times, the social economy depended on agriculture and animal husbandry, and climate change also caused changes in the output of agricultural products, which in turn affected the tax revenue and population of the dynasty. According to Malthus' cycle law, in addition to population growth, climate cooling will also aggravate the decline of labor productivity, leading to famine and war.

The model of climate change is very complex, and there are many factors that affect climate on a large time scale. At present, scientists have put forward the following influencing factors: the change of the earth's orbit (Milankovic cycle), the composition of the atmosphere (carbon dioxide, oxygen, methane concentration), plate movement (the position of the ocean and land on the earth), the sun's activity cycle (sunspot cycle), the earth-moon interaction, meteorite impact, large-scale volcanic eruption and so on. Some people think that the climate change of the earth on the time scale of 100 million years is also related to the position of the solar system in the Milky Way. There are many studies on the impact of climate change on human history. For example, European and American scientists put forward the climate cycle of North Atlantic 1600 years by studying the "thermohaline circulation". Many studies on China's history and climate were first studied by foreign scientists and introduced by domestic scholars.

Let's divide the historical period of China into 10 stages, and talk about the influence of climate change on the history of China, which will be briefly introduced in the above paper. Finally, the map of climate change in China since Qin and Han Dynasties published by the Institute of Geography of China Academy of Sciences in the monthly progress of earth science. Notes and links to the original map are attached.

1. About 4200 years ago, that is, in 2200 BC, a Holocene climate cooling event occurred, which was called "42000 event" by paleoclimatology. This cold event was global and lasted for the whole 22nd century BC, which led to the end of the Egyptian "ancient kingdom period" in which pyramid of khufu was built and plunged into turmoil and hunger for more than one hundred years. In China, the Longshan culture in Shandong moved south, and it was replaced by the rough Yueshi culture.

After the "4.2 Millennium Event" ended, around 265,438 BC+000 -2050 BC, global warming and melting glaciers triggered a flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. According to the current archaeological data, the first phase of Erlitou culture began around 2080 BC, which is almost the time when the legendary Xia Dynasty began to take shape. The reason for the formation of the Xia Dynasty may be the organization and management of manpower and material resources caused by the flood after this warming. At the same time, around 2055 BC, ancient Egypt began to be unified again.

2. About 1600 BC, Xia and Shang dynasties changed. At the same time, the Thebes dynasty in ancient Egypt was also threatened by the Asian immigration regime Hyksos from 1650 to 1555. According to the chronicles of bamboo slips, there were "yellow frogs, dim nursed back to health, frost on the third day and July, and grain withering" during the change of Xia and Shang dynasties in about16/8 BC. According to the records of modern archaeology and "Storm Monument", earthquakes, frogs, plagues, hail, poisonous gas, locusts, river depletion and other disasters also occur from time to time in Egypt. "Mandarin Zhou Yu" contains: "Ilo died in the summer." It shows that the rivers in China dried up during this period. Some historians associate these events with the "eruption of Minos volcano" in Greece at the same time. According to geologists, the eruption of Minos volcano (also known as Mount Scylla or Mount santorini) occurred about 1628- 1645 years ago, which is the largest eruption in human history since 1000. The eruption of the great volcano affected the climate, which led to "volcano winter", the temperature dropped, the crops were reduced and died, which led to famine and unrest.

Although there were some climate anomalies in the Xia and Shang Dynasties, the climate in the whole Xia and Shang Dynasties was actually very warm, and many written records and archaeological discoveries proved this judgment. The bones of subtropical animals such as roe deer and bamboo rat unearthed at Banpo site represent Yangshao culture. In Yin Ruins in Anyang, Henan Province, the bones of subtropical and tropical animals such as roebuck, bamboo rat, tapir, buffalo and elephant were unearthed. Henan was called "Yu" in ancient times, and the word "Yu" is a symbol of a person holding an elephant. [1] The time interval between Banpo site (6800-5300 years ago) and Yinxu site (3400-3055 years ago) is very long, so we have to explain the "4.2 thousand year event" here. According to the ice age theory, the "42000 event" was an ice segment in the interglacial period of Holocene (1 1700 years ago), but the climate had a process of cooling and rising at the beginning of the 22nd century. Similar events include "5.9 Millennium Event" and "8.2 Millennium Event".

3. In BC 1059, the Zhou Dynasty was attacked, and in BC 1044, the Zhou Dynasty was established. In the early years of the Western Zhou Dynasty, the climate was still warm. The poems written in the Book of Songs in the early years of the Western Zhou Dynasty have appeared many times in drinking containers made of rhinoceros horns. The Book of Songs Nan Zhou Juan Er said, "If I take care of it, I will never be hurt." Qi Feng July: "When you are in court, you will be called One, and you will live forever." Mencius under Teng Wengong records: "The Duke of Zhou overthrew the King of Wu, exiled him for three years, found his monarch, drove Fei Lian to the cape and slaughtered him. Fifty vandals drive tigers, leopards, rhinos and elephants, and the world is happy. " It can also be seen that there were tropical animals such as rhinoceros and elephants in the early Western Zhou Dynasty.

From about the period of King Zhao of Zhou and King Mu, the climate began to get cold. According to the chronicles of bamboo slips, the Hanshui River was frozen twice in Zhou Dynasty, in 903 BC and 897 BC respectively. "Bamboo Chronicle" also mentioned that there was a drought after freezing. [2]

This cold period lasted about 1-2 centuries, which may have affected the economy for a long time and weakened the surrounding areas. After the week, there were many disturbances, including the "China Riot" 8465,438+0 years ago, a brief announcement around 865,438+00 years ago, and a dog 7765,438+0 years ago.

4. In 770 BC, after the Spring and Autumn Period began, the climate entered a warm period again. This warm period lasted for a long time, about 800 years, until the first century AD. This warm period is China's modern people, contending for hegemony in the Spring and Autumn Period, the Seven Heroes in the Warring States Period, the pre-Qin philosophers, the Qin King sweeping Liuhe, the Chu and Han Dynasties, and the Qin and Han Dynasties. During this period, the history of China was splendid and gorgeous, and countless romantic figures stepped onto the historical stage, leaving behind handed down words, immortal achievements and touching legends. This era can be regarded as the youth of our nation, high-spirited and striving for the upper reaches. During this period, China emerged from the chaos, and the first centralized unified dynasty, the Qin Dynasty, emerged, which also formed the concept of Han nationality state in the Han Dynasty.

5. The period from the beginning of AD to AD 600 was a 600-year cold period, which began at the beginning of Gong Yuan and ended at the beginning of Sui Dynasty. This cold period, including the Three Kingdoms, the Wei, Jin and Sixteen Countries, and the Southern and Northern Dynasties, is a chaotic period.

Wang Mang was in power, and the iteration period of the Han Dynasty was in a relatively cold period (the first 30 -30 years). It is worth mentioning that the Eastern Han Dynasty was in a relatively warm period of this cold period, which was about 30- 180 AD. 180 years later, the climate began to get cold. 184 years later, the yellow turban insurrectionary broke out, which started the chaos. The Battle of Guandu in 2000, Battle of Red Cliffs in 2008 and the Three Kingdoms in 220.

There is a meaningful passage in the Prairie Empire written by René Grousset: "In the historical process of Asia, there have always been two dominant forces. One is the leading force of the ancient settlement civilization (China, Indian and Iranian) on the outer edge of Asia, which conquered one "barbarian land" after another bit by bit and desperately by assimilation. In the long run, it is assimilated. The second dominant force is the violent force of nomadic people from the heart of this continent. This violent force is produced because they are hungry and because greedy wolves always get better livestock at any time and in some way.

The heart of Eurasia refers to the Eurasian grassland belt on the southern edge of Siberian forest. When the nomadic people in this grassland go south because of hunger, it often changes the historical process of settlement civilization. Nomads are hungry because the climate has come to a cold period and the originally suitable temperature zone has moved south. The most famous in history is the barbarian invasion that began in Europe in the 4th century. At the same time, the Five Revolts took place in China. In Europe, ethnic migration triggered by barbarian invasion stopped at the beginning of the 7th century. In China, nomadic peoples such as Xiongnu, Xianbei, Qiang and Bian entered the historical stage, which influenced the 300-year history of China until the Sui Dynasty unified China in 590. The explanation of this historical synchronization between Europe and Asia is relatively weak, but the climate factor is the key. The climate cooling in East Asia and Europe is not synchronous, but the trend is the same, and Europe has a certain lag. [3]

At the beginning of the 4th century, the climate in China reached a very cold period, and the Western Jin Dynasty unified China soon. The migration of nomadic people began after the climate became cold in the Eastern Han Dynasty, but the Yongjia Rebellion (365,438+065,438+0) occurred in the extremely cold period of the Western Jin Dynasty. In Europe, in 350 AD, Hungarians suddenly appeared on the grasslands of Eastern Europe and wiped out Allen. In the next century, Hungarians reached their peak in Europe. In 453 AD, Attila, the leader of the Hungarians, died suddenly, and the Hungarians fell apart and disappeared in the long river of history. Around 500 AD, the climate in China became extremely cold. In 493 AD, the Northern Wei moved its capital to Luoyang, but there is no evidence that the Northern Wei moved its capital to Luoyang because of this cold climate.

The climate warming at the end of the 6th century was accompanied by the unification of China. Climate is a factor in this reunification, but it is not a decisive factor. Climate warming makes the population and economy in the north have more advantages than those in the south. It is worth noting that the unification of the Sui Dynasty was somewhat similar to that of Qin. It is also the first time to get comfortable. China has been reunified for 40 or 50 years, and even two unification wars have taken about 10 years. "In the first 277 years, Qin established Shu County. In the first 230 years, Qin destroyed Korea and began to attack and destroy the six countries. In the first 22 1 year, the Qin dynasty was destroyed and China was unified; In 554, the Western Wei Dynasty won Liangzhou and Yizhou; In 577, the Northern Zhou Dynasty destroyed the Northern Qi and unified the North; In 589, the Sui Dynasty destroyed Chen Nan and unified China. Liangzhou and Yizhou were acquired in the Western Wei Dynasty 540 years after the climate began to warm. These two similar unified methods are worth pondering. There are many noteworthy things behind the unification of the Three Kingdoms, such as the reorganization of grass-roots units in the Northern Wei Dynasty and the Guanzhong-based policy. Especially during the unification of Sui and Tang Dynasties, the promotion and maintenance of the importance of Guanlong area may have a great relationship with the climate of Guanlong area during the warm period of Sui and Tang Dynasties.

6. The warm period from AD 600 to AD 1050 was the Sui, Tang, Five Dynasties and Northern Song Dynasties in the history of China.

During the Sui and Tang Dynasties, eight waters circled Chang 'an, and oranges could bear fruit in Chang 'an. This warm period in the Middle Ages lasted about 500 years, which was shorter than the warm period of 800 years in ancient times, but it was also a glorious historical period. Sui and Tang dynasties were the peak of feudal dynasties, and the culture of this era was dazzling, and heroes came forth in large numbers in this era. Like the last warm period, the imperial court passed through the western regions, and Luoyang in Chang 'an was very prosperous, with innovative political system and prosperous culture.

This great warm period was a cold period from 850 to 965. In this hundred-year cold current, there were civil strife at the end of the Tang Dynasty, the death of the Tang Dynasty and the Five Dynasties War. Qiu Fu Uprising in Zhejiang in 859, Pang Xun Uprising in 868, Wang Xianzhi and Huang Chao Uprising in 875, Huang Chao's entry into Chang 'an in 88 1 year, Huang Chao's crushing defeat in 884, and civil strife in the late Tang Dynasty, which lasted for 25 years. In 907, the Tang Dynasty perished, and the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms began to be a little troubled. In 979, the Northern Song Dynasty destroyed the Northern Han Dynasty and unified China. The year 966- 1 109 was another warm period, which was the northern song dynasty (960- 1 127).

7. The period from1050 to 1200 is a cold period.

In the fourth year of Daguan in the Northern Song Dynasty (A.D.110), it snowed heavily in Quanzhou on December 20th. In the first year of Zhenghe in the Northern Song Dynasty (111), Taihu Lake was completely frozen. A.D. 1 125 Jin destroyed Liao, 1 127 Jin destroyed Northern Song. In the fifth year of Xichun in the Southern Song Dynasty (1 178), all litchi in Fuzhou froze to death. It is worth noting that Jin destroyed Liao and Song Dynasties in a period of sudden climate change (110-1152) [4]. 1050- 1 100, famine occurred in Egypt, Mexico, Britain, Palestine and France for half a century.

8. 1200 to 1350 is the warm period. From 1209, Mongolia began to expand abroad after the unification of various ministries. 1234 Mongolia joined the Song Dynasty to destroy the gold, 1227 Mongolia destroyed Xixia, 1278 Yuan Dynasty destroyed the Southern Song Dynasty. 1368 Ming dynasty lost yuan. From the Jingkang Revolution of 1 127 to the Ming Dynasty of 1368, northern China was ruled by nomadic people for more than 200 years, which was slightly shorter than the chaotic time after Yongjia Rebellion.

9. The period from1350 to 1900 was a cold period, and the Ming and Qing Dynasties were also called the Little Ice Age.

According to the division of Zhu Kezhen, the warmer periods of the Little Ice Age were 1550- 1600 and 1770- 1830, and the colder periods were 1470- 1520 and/kloc-. One of the coldest periods was 1650- 1700, during which the Hanshui River froze five times, Taihu Lake and Huaihe River froze four times, Dongting Lake froze three times, and Poyang Lake froze in the ninth year of Kangxi (1670). It is said that the frozen period of the Grand Canal at that time was as long as 109 days.

Long-term cold will affect the economy of agricultural society, lead to the reduction of tax revenue, and then weaken the power of the dynasty. Around 1350, the peasant uprising broke out at the end of Yuan Dynasty (135 1- 1367), the Red Scarf Army uprising broke out at135/,and Zhu Yuanzhang joined the Red Scarf in 1352. 1627, hungry people rioted in Chengcheng, Shaanxi Province, and civil strife began in the late Ming Dynasty. 1644, Li Zicheng was trapped in Beijing and was in a relatively cold period of 1620- 1720. Ming's death was related to the famine caused by the Little Ice Age, but famine was definitely not a single factor. 1650-17 10, there were great famines in Japan, Bangladesh, France, Ireland, Finland, Poland and Estonia, and there were more than one famines in some areas.

In the third year of Guangxu (1877), famine occurred in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places, and the death toll reached130,000. Some people analyze that this is due to the phenomenon of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. During the Little Ice Age of Ming and Qing Dynasties, Malthus' cycle law was mentioned by scholars many times.

10, 1900 is the warm period so far. With the improvement of productivity and the progress of science and technology, climate is no longer an important factor affecting the historical process. Even in the present warm period, the political and economic centers of China are still in the east and south, and the situation in Sui and Tang Dynasties has not recovered. It seems powerless to explain it with a single climatic factor. It should be because after the great geographical discovery, the economic ties around the world have become closer, and the oceans have become more important. The cold climate has caused the political and economic center of China to move eastward and southward. Because of some man-made ecological destruction, such as the Great Wall of the Ming Dynasty and modern industrial development, it is difficult to restore the geographical environment of the north to the warmth, humidity, water and dense forests of the Sui and Tang Dynasties.