Talk about the video of pork price increase after the year.

The price of meat rose by 30% in a single month, the price of live pigs hit a five-year high, and the "second brother" in the Year of the Monkey became an instant hit. In this regard, some insiders pointed out that the current rise in pork prices is caused by insufficient supply; Some insiders also believe that this round of pork rise is mixed with artificial "hype" factors. So, as the price of live pigs crosses the historical high point, where will the future go?

Recently, many people are saying that they can't afford pork. Since the beginning of this year, pork prices have continued to rise. At present, the retail price of pork is nearly a catty of 20 yuan, and the highest price of ribs is nearly a catty of 35 yuan. "Crazy rise" is the common feeling of ordinary people and people in the industry. So, what is the reason behind this round of pork price surge? Is the supply in short supply caused by the low price of pork in previous years? Is it weather and human factors or is there capital behind it? The reporter recently conducted an investigation on this.

location

Imported pork is nearly half cheaper than "local pigs"

Yesterday (5th), after visiting several large vegetable markets and supermarkets in Wangjing, Beijing, the reporter learned that the retail prices of pork in these markets and supermarkets are almost the same, with the front and back leg meat 17 yuan, pork belly 18 yuan, ribs 27 yuan and the most expensive ribs 35 yuan.

The stall owner told reporters that the Spring Festival was the high point of pork prices in previous years, and generally it will fall back after the Spring Festival, but after the Spring Festival this year, pork prices remain high. "The wholesale price is high, and we all follow the price of meat." . Another stall owner said: "This is because the slaughterhouse can't receive pigs now."

The reporter found that there were not many customers who bought pork before these stalls. A stall owner said, "Now vegetables, meat and everything are expensive. There is no way. If you can't eat vegetables, then eat less meat. " Another customer who came to buy pork said that he liked spareribs best, but the price of one catty in 35 yuan made him hesitate, so he only bought spareribs with ribs, which was cheaper than that in 8 yuan.

In addition, the reporter found a strange phenomenon in the supermarket. Compared with "local" pork, imported pork is much cheaper. For example, the pork ribs from Canada cost only 19.8 yuan a catty, which is nearly half cheaper than the local pork ribs of 34.8 yuan.

survey

Is the skyrocketing pork price artificially fried?

According to the data of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, in March, the national retail price of pork was 28.6 yuan per kilogram, up 35.2% year-on-year; The price of live pigs per kilogram 18.82 yuan, up 54.8% year-on-year; The price of piglets was 40.68 yuan per kilogram, up 10 1.3% year-on-year. So what caused this round of pork prices to skyrocket?

"Pork prices are related to hype." Zhan Jiabao, the propaganda department of Xinfadi Market, believes that the price of pork is mainly fried. After the high price, many farmers and farms are reluctant to sell pigs. They want to raise pigs to about 150 kg before selling them. This is a kind of "reluctance to sell". When the price of meat rises, pig farms are generally willing to postpone the slaughter for a few days, which can increase the single weight of pigs on the one hand and increase their income because of the price increase on the other. Therefore, the rise in pork prices is also mixed with human factors.

A related person from the Ministry of Agriculture said that the small number of live pigs is the main reason for the increase in pig prices. "Since the second half of 20 14, the price of pork has been continuously depressed, and the meager profit has led to a decrease in pig breeding. As of February 20 16, the number of live pigs in China was 3667 10000, which was about 2 1.7% lower than the peak of 46,856,000 in 20 13, and 38,973,000 in the same period in 20 15.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sohu, said. Com believes that the current rise in pork prices is indeed caused by insufficient supply at the supply end. "From 20 13 to 20 15, the whole industry was in a state of loss for three consecutive years, which led to the bankruptcy and withdrawal of a large number of pig farms and a sharp decline in production capacity; At the same time, due to environmental problems, the pig farm was demolished from 20 14, further causing insufficient production capacity. "

In addition to the above supply chain reasons, there are some natural reasons. From June 5438 to February last year, most parts of China suffered from "century cold wave", and the temperature plummeted, resulting in severe diarrhea of piglets and low survival rate. This affected the supply of fat pigs after the Spring Festival, and some slaughtering enterprises even suffered from "broken stalls" and could not receive pigs.

Urge sb. to give an interview

Does the government want to control this round of pork inflation?

Not long ago, there was a message circulating in various WeChat groups that the reserve meat was put on March 25. The total amount of the five provinces is 6.5438+0.85 million tons, but it has not been confirmed so far. In any case, the price of pork has not been controlled and remains at a high level today.

In this regard, Feng Yonghui said that even if the news is true, then 20,000 tons is still not enough to make up for the gap in the pork market. "Reserve pork is actually an enterprise's inventory, usually a rotation cycle of 4 to 6 months. The situation has been bad this year, so the company doesn't have much reserves. To put it bluntly, it is out of stock, so the government has not put it on a large scale. "

Looking back on March 9, the National Development and Reform Commission's "Suggestion on Farmers Not to Exceed the Bars when Pig Grain Prices Enter the Yellow Warning Area" 18.62 yuan per kilogram, which mentioned that as of March 9, the national average ex-factory price of pigs 18.62 yuan, up 52.8% year-on-year; The price of pig grain is 9. 13: 1, which has entered the yellow warning area. "Pig-grain price comparison" refers to the ratio of pig price to corn price, which is an important indicator to measure pork price. The higher the price of pig food, the higher the profit of breeding, and the higher the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column. At the same time, this is also the most important reference factor for the government to regulate pork prices. It is understood that the green area of pig grain price comparison ranges from 5.5: 1 to 8.5: 1. Recently, the price of live pigs exceeded 10 yuan, the price of corn was about 90 cents per catty, and the price of pig food exceeded 10.5: 1.

The relevant state departments will start the regulation plan in a timely manner according to the provisions of the regulation plan to alleviate the periodic fluctuation of the pig market price, and strive to alleviate the sharp fluctuation of the pig market price. In this regulation plan, it is stipulated that when the price of pig food is in the yellow area, the Development and Reform Commission will take the lead in consultation and put forward a central frozen pork storage plan, which will be organized and implemented by the Ministry of Commerce.

watch out for

When will the skyrocketing pork price come down?

Feng Yonghui introduced that the replenishment of the supply side is now resumed, but it needs a process. According to his prediction, the supply delivered to the terminal will take at least 10 months. He predicted that after September this year, there may be a round of price decline. Zhan Jiabao believes that the current pork price has basically reached the highest level in history, but he said that the price increase is not obvious compared with previous years, and there may be human factors, so it is impossible to predict the subsequent price fluctuations.

In fact, in addition to the government's reserve meat and farmers' supplement, there are measures to increase imported meat and increase subsidies for low-income households, college students and other groups. But at present, there is no corresponding regulatory policy in the country.

Similar to the price of pork seen by the reporter of Beiqing Daily in the supermarket, Feng Yonghui said that the price of imported pork is really cheap, almost half of that in China. But "no country in the world can fill the gap in China. China's pork market is 50 million tons, while the global pork trade volume is only 6 million tons ". Although the country has been increasing the proportion of imported meat, which increased by 66% in June at 5438+ 10, and in February at10/0%, the demand is still in short supply.

At the same time, the above-mentioned experts said that many farms and slaughterhouses are in a state of loss or meager profit, which is a great blow to the pig market, when the price of pork continues to fall from 20 13 to 20 15. At present, the price of pork is rising, and it is also a good thing to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers through market regulation. At this time, if we import blindly, it may further dampen the enthusiasm of domestic farmers, and the pork market will be difficult to adjust and recover in the short term.

Financial observation

Don't let the "pig cycle" cycle play out.

In aquaculture, there is such a "pig cycle", and the general trajectory is: the price of meat rises-the stock of fertile sows increases greatly-the supply of live pigs increases-the price of meat falls-a large number of fertile sows are eliminated-the supply of live pigs decreases-and the price of meat rises. This cycle is usually repeated once every two to three years, so "one year's profit, one year's flat, one year's loss" has become the "curse" of farmers.

At first glance, this adjustment is in line with the law of market supply and demand. But we should also see that some people have paid a heavy price in this "lagging" market regulation, and such tragedies are staged periodically.

In a market economy, market regulation is an after-the-fact regulation, that is to say, only when prices fluctuate first, participants in economic activities will expand or reduce the supply of goods at any time. Therefore, the imbalance between supply and demand affects the price, and there is already a time lag. It will take some time from making a decision to getting the result. The characteristics of aquaculture determine the long growth cycle from piglets to fat pigs, which leads to the lag of market supervision in this industry.

2065 438+03-2065 438+05, the price of pork continued to be low, and many enterprises had to close down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of live pigs. Now with the rising price of pork, more and more farmers make up for it, which may bring about the next round of price decline. However, we don't want to see the next "pig cycle" staged. Perhaps, the way to prevent the "pig cycle" from continuing is not only to educate farmers in the market and make them realize that they can't blindly follow the trend. More importantly, the relevant departments should also carry out scientific and predictable macro-control.