Where does the wind blow?

It is said that an old fisherman who has experienced many storms can know tomorrow's sea as long as he smells the salty air by the sea in the evening. This is not a special function, but a basic survival skill accumulated through experience. This skill is not only related to tomorrow's harvest, but also to the life and death of fishing boats. Since I went to Qiu Lai in summer, Ziguang has been listed for ten years, and its distribution business has gone through ten years. Ziguang Digital has also grown into one of the top five IT distributors in China. I always think when I'm free. In the next decade, where will the IT wind blow and where will we go? Ten years ago, in the ocean of IT, Ziguang Digital chose to distribute this fishing ground. We rowed freely like boats. The fishing ground is large enough and small enough. No matter where we row, we can always catch aquatic products that meet our requirements. People often laugh on our boat. We never ask:? We can watch those big fleets and follow them to sail and fish. The big fleet doesn't care about our existence, and we are not interested in stealing their thunder. We can coexist peacefully and develop together. Following the strategy always gains us a lot; Or occasionally the big fleet misjudges the wind direction, but the ship turns around easily-we are always out of danger as soon as possible. After ten years of hard work, our equipment has been gradually upgraded through thrift and hard accumulation. Marketing guru, Jack Trout and AL Ries called those big fleets market leaders in their masterpiece Positioning, while small boats were like American market followers. Market followers refer to enterprises that are in a secondary position and are not keen on challenges, and seek as many benefits as possible under the state of "peaceful coexistence". In the capital-intensive homogeneous product industry, market follower strategy is the choice of most enterprises. Mainly determined by the characteristics of the industry and products. The main characteristics of these industries are: (1) high product homogeneity and low opportunities for product differentiation and image differentiation; (2) Convergence of service quality and service standards; (3) Consumers are highly sensitive to price; (4) Any price provocation in the industry may trigger a price war; (5) Most enterprises are prepared to operate in this industry for a long time. If, followers are the only choice for positioning, if, if! We can always live in peace with the big fleet, they don't care, we don't go for a ride, which is actually a kind of beauty! Unfortunately, positioning theory has another role-market challenger. Through hard work, diligence, thrift and accumulation, we gradually got out of the small boats in droves and formed our own fleet. Willing or not, just following the fishing does not guarantee that we have enough output; Like it or not, the big fleet will no longer ignore our existence. We must smell it with our own noses. Boston Consulting Group once put forward an interesting "three-four rule": among influential leaders, the number of enterprises will never exceed three, while in the eyes of most enterprises, there are only three competitors. Among these three enterprises, the market share of the strongest competitor will not exceed four times that of the smallest competitor. Among the distributed fishing grounds, the three fleets are undoubtedly Digital China, ingram micro International and Lianqiang International. The "three-four rule matrix" is just a hypothesis drawn from experience and has not been strictly proved. But the significance of this law is very important, that is, under the action of experience curve, cost is a function of market share. If the market share of two competitors is almost the same, then whoever can increase the relative market share will increase the output and cost at the same time, and may get more than the price paid; or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium In fact, this is a very particular rule. If it is true, then today we must pursue a growth rate higher than the industry average, otherwise we will be gradually marginalized (unless we choose a "niche market"), and only by entering the top three positions in the industry can we gain a stable position. According to the law of 34, our fleet must reach a quarter of the largest fleet (currently Digital China) and at least exceed one of the three largest fleets. Yes, maybe this is our goal in the next decade, a stressful but attractive goal-to enter the camp of market leaders. Yes, this is also our choice-rapid growth. So is it necessary to compete head-on with the major fleets? I think I'd better have a look first. IT is generally believed that there are three trends (development trends) in IT channels: first, channel flattening; Second, channel appreciation; The third is the electronic channel. These three trends are also the reasons why many people are worried about the distribution prospects. In fact, it's not a bad thing if we think about it carefully. First, the channel is flattened, and manufacturers actively flatten the intermediate channels to reduce the channel cost. In practice, it is difficult for manufacturers to really reduce the level of first-class dealers. After all, the strong credit guarantee and perfect distribution network provided by the first-class dealers are difficult for manufacturers to give up because of the cost advantage brought by scale. The flattening of channels is a nightmare for second-and third-tier channels and small-scale first-tier dealers, and the market share they gave up just needs to be shared by big dealers. The second is channel value-added, that is, channels provide additional technology or services. This will provide higher profits, of course, there are greater risks, but for the three leading enterprises in the market now, they are willing to bear and enjoy, which is exactly their direction. Digital China is doing value-added services, their interest is IT services, and their fleet is rushing to the whaling ship in front; Ingram micro International is engaged in value-added management. Their advantage lies in the perfect management system. Their fleet is good at staying in the fishing ground with the highest yield, and their favorite food is abalone. Lianqiang International is doing value-added logistics, characterized by a strong distribution system, and there is always a transport ship behind their fleet. Value-added is not our core interest (not without interest). Our core is low-cost and fast-paced service, which means that our fleet is brave enough to catch a large number of economic fish, and the more the better. Therefore, the value-added channel just avoids the direct competition between us and the three major fleets. Thirdly, electronic channels, such as JD.COM, Newegg and other emerging e-commerce companies bring a lot of money into IT product sales, and then cooperate with major manufacturers to sell directly, which has greatly replaced distribution. However, I believe that distribution is not as simple as price and logistics. E-commerce companies still have a lot to learn and need time. For a long time, they may be the best partners of dealers, because they keep buying a lot of goods from dealers, which also shares a lot of inventory pressure for dealers. Therefore, the three winds are blowing hard, but we can still be calm. We focus on traffic distribution, focus on areas that leading enterprises are not keen on at present, focus on growth above the industry level, focus on refined management, and profit from management. Don't worry that the low-end strategy will hinder us from entering the ranks of market leaders. Professor Christensen of Harvard Business School told a story about sheep eating wolves: small steel mills in the United States squeezed into the steel bar market with the lowest profit margin, and gradually pushed comprehensive steel enterprises out of the higher-end market. When Newark Steel Company, the leader of small steel mills, launched an impact on the steel plate market, its market value dwarfed that of American Steel Company, the largest comprehensive steel company. However, many steel companies went bankrupt under the impact. Sheep can eat wolves because they keep a low profile and work hard to earn small money, which allows them to avoid direct competition and gain a firm foothold. Faced with the "evil wolf" who integrates steel companies with abundant resources and funds, small steel mills are like a tame lamb, but the sheep gradually squeezed out the wolf's living space and ate it. All this is a bit unexpected, but it is expected. Knowing the goal of the fleet, I can't help but continue to think about fleet construction. Can our fleet really judge the wind direction by its sense of smell? I remembered a joke about economics I saw recently: an economist returned to his alma mater and was very interested in the current exam questions. So he asked the teacher who had taught him to take out the examination questions. To his great surprise, the exam questions now are exactly the same as those he answered ten years ago. He asked the teacher why this happened. The teacher replied, "Although the question hasn't changed, the answer has changed." A fleet's judgment of wind and waves is no longer the logic of fishermen. First, the reliability of sniffing is unacceptable to the fleet; Second, technically, the fleet has a complete early warning system, which can judge the direction and magnitude of the wind; Third, the fleet can't just go out to sea with the wind, but must use excellent management system to resist the wind and waves, and even use the wind and waves to obtain greater benefits. I think our fleet needs to solve the following problems: 1. How to establish a strong leadership team and communicate the first-time wind direction judgment and countermeasures to all ships? And carry it out to the letter? 2. How to build more professional fishing boats to catch fish seriously, and how to train more sailors at all levels, even captains? How to establish such an internal training plan? 3. How to ensure that the fleet security system is in place so that fishermen can concentrate on fishing? Internal customer orientation is a concept that can be recognized by one ear, but how to implement and realize it?