Learn statistics well, what can you do in life?

First, learn to look at problems and understand the meaning of numbers.

For example, it is often said in news reports that the per capita income of a city is 6.5438+0 million yuan. Every time such a report appears, many netizens exclaim that they have been averaged. Why is there such a cognitive illusions? This is because news reports don't tell us what the distribution of data is like. For example, 20% of people may have 80% of the income, and the remaining 80% have 20% of the total income. Then these 80% people must feel that they have been averaged. Therefore, people who have studied statistics will ask a few more questions when they see such numbers, and then they can understand the real meaning behind the numbers.

In addition, if you learn the sampling principle of statistics, you may further question how this per capita income is calculated. Did you count the income data of all the people in the city, or did you just extract the income data of some people? If some people are selected, what are the principles? These will affect the authenticity and credibility of the data.

Second, speak with data, and let your persuasiveness break away from the chart.

When you report to the leader.

Newcomer A reported this way:

This year, it invested 1 10,000 yuan in the East China market. We have done a lot of influential activities and produced a good brand effect. Users are very appreciative of our products, and many of them have become our loyal users after use. Our market share in East China has further increased. I hope to increase investment in this area next year in order to produce better market effect.

Newcomer B reported this way:

This year, it invested 1 10,000 yuan in the East China market. Among them, there are 500,000 advertisements, 300,000 promotional activities and 200,000 promotional samples. * * * brought 30,000 new users and increased the market share by 5 percentage points. It is estimated that the sales in this area will increase by 5 million yuan in the coming year.

If you are a leader, which report do you prefer?

Obviously, most people will choose the latter. Clear data can convey clear information. It is ok to write those very, many and further possibilities in official documents, but in market reports, this word is simply paste. The leader has been training at home this morning, so don't give him any trouble.

Third, experience different ways of thinking.

Recently, a lovely conversation between two giant pandas became popular in the circle of friends. One of them said to the other, look at us and you will know that the world is either black or white. Another panda sticks out its red tongue. This joke tells us that the world is not black and white. Statistical thinking can never determine the true face of the world. Statistics is always about probability, that is, possibility. Zhuangzi said that a hammer of one foot is worth half a day, but it is immortal. This is a probabilistic way of thinking. So, um, I like Dong Ye. s。 He sang: Last night, I almost fucking died. Is he dead or not? Possibility is the most worth pondering.

Fourth, like the Buddha, he knows cause and effect and karma.

Statistics often studies the relationship between two factors, which is called causality. For example, the impact of your education on your income. Statisticians may say that with each level of education, the annual income increases by 6,543.8+0.2 million yuan. So don't believe in the futility of reading, believe in probability. If you believe that you can be Bill Gates, then reading is really meaningless to you. Similarly, this is only a small probability event, which will hardly happen to you.

For another example, there is an article called "Those Children Born in July and August", which discusses the influence of birth time on children's adaptability and academic performance. The conclusion of this paper is that children born in July and August are adapting to the crisis in many ways, and the possibility of entering key middle schools is the lowest. This is a very interesting study. Parents of children born in July and August don't know how they will feel after reading this article.

There was a man named Durkheim in history. He wrote a book called "On Suicide", which specializes in human suicide. He found that suicide is related to the degree of social integration, and also distinguished anomie suicide, altruistic suicide and selfish suicide. You will find that suicide is not entirely the cause of suicide.

Causality is probably the most important relationship in the world. Injustice has a head, debt has a master, and what is said is cause and effect. The dragon begets the dragon, and the phoenix begets the phoenix. The son of the mouse was born to dig a hole, which is also a cause and effect. So love experts often say, what is the antonym of love? Not hate, but indifference. I have no causal relationship with you, so how harmful it is!

In short, statistics is a way for people to know about society and the world. My life is limited, but so is my knowledge. Personal energy is too limited, so statisticians usually get a concentrated sample from the population according to certain sampling rules, and understand the whole through the study of the sample. For example, in the American election of 1936, Gallup successfully predicted Roosevelt's election only by investigating 3000 American citizens. This is the charm of statistics. It shakes human's cognition of complex phenomena in a way of four or two.

Unfortunately, such interesting statistics often become the most boring formula derivation and the most effective hypnosis course in college classes. Especially for liberal arts students, when your usual image thinking meets probability thinking, if the effect is proper, there may be an ecological reaction of "let's suffocate for statistics". If the effect is improper, it is very likely to be counted as "black for life". This is not what Bian Xiao wants to see. No, Bian Xiao found a special independent variable. His appearance will bring significant changes to your statistical study, and your dependent variables will be different. He came from a liberal arts background and failed in mathematics in the college entrance examination. But he has taught statistics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong for more than ten years and is very popular with students. He took a slant, cut into the study of statistics with philosophical thinking, cracked the learning password of statistics, and changed the realization of statistics from expert understanding to user understanding. He learned from things, tasted all kinds of herbs, appreciated the bitterness of statistical learning, and traveled all over the potholes and dangers of the long March of statistics. He is willing to contribute what he has learned over the years. He hopes that young students, especially liberal arts students, can build up confidence, avoid detours, improve their fun and learn to use statistics. He hopes to provide an interesting and knowledgeable statistics course and bring a brand-new statistical learning experience in a simple way.

He is Professor Li Lianjiang from the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Teacher Li himself called this course "Statistics for Jokes: You can learn quantitative research methods in everyday language".