A story told by the teacher asked us to write a paper. .

Looking at the "moisture" of China's GDP growth from power generation data

There are too many things about China's economy that people cannot understand. A large number of classic theories in classic Western economics are China has been subverted, and that's all for the common people, but for economists who specialize in this kind of food, it is a bit embarrassing. Not only domestic scholars, but even Western "teachers" are also shouting that China has created a model and trying to deal with it with reconstructed theories. However, there are some facts for which answers must be found and can be found. It just depends on the perspective. Right?

At the 2010 Economic Situation and Electric Power Development Analysis and Forecast Conference held by the China Electricity Council on the 27th, Hao Weiping, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said that this year, driven by stable and rapid economic growth, the national electricity consumption Rapid growth will be achieved, and the growth rate may exceed last year, reaching 8% or 9%. However, judging from the predictions of all parties, it is definitely a high probability that China's GDP growth will reach 10% in 2010, and electricity consumption will once again be left behind by GDP.

In economic theory, the high correlation between electricity consumption and GDP is recognized, but this theory is always "acclimated" in China.

The sharp deviation in 2009 aroused "shock" at that time. In the first quarter of last year, electricity consumption in the entire society fell by 4.02% year-on-year, but during the same period, GDP and industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% and 5.1% respectively. In this regard, foreign scholars were also confused, and in the end they could only conclude that China's GDP data was watery. This is certainly not a statement that the relevant authorities can accept. A large number of domestic economists tasked with the mission of "counterattack" have racked their brains to explain it from various angles. There are no more than two paths: one is the "normal theory", At that time, Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this kind of deviation could not be explained directly from statistical data, and argued that this phenomenon had also occurred in Japan and the United States to prove that this kind of deviation was "normal." Of course, we know this statement It is "abnormal" in itself; the second is the "industrial structure adjustment theory", which believes that the decline in the proportion of the secondary industry and the increase in the output value of the tertiary industry are the main reasons. However, the adjustment of industrial structure is a long-term phenomenon, and the huge amount of investment under the goal of "maintaining growth" is very energy-consuming, and it is also unclear to analyze!

Is there really no answer to such an "unsolved case"? We should believe that things in the world must have "causes and effects." Anbang's research team has conducted in-depth research on this.

Chen Gong, chief researcher of Anbang, pointed out that China’s power generation growth data lags behind GDP growth, mainly due to investment efficiency issues, and the essence lies in the insufficient operating rate of enterprises. In fact, all Chinese people know that our investments are often made with a “hat”, such as “industrial revitalization” and “regional revitalization”, which makes investment have a strong government background and command-like characteristics. . Whatever you are told to do, you have to do it; if you can do it, you have to do it; if you can't do it, you have to create conditions to do it! But this kind of "doing" is superficial and perfunctory. The investment is in place, but no one pays attention to whether it is finally transformed into production. This is the current Chinese model of economic growth. In fact, the fact that the growth rate of electricity consumption is lower than the growth rate of GDP exactly reflects this, which in turn explains why the two often "break up". Because when investing, capital formation is reflected in GDP, the GDP data will naturally go up; and enterprise production must use electricity, but because there is no actual operation, or there is insufficient operation, the data on power generation will naturally follow. If you don't go up, the growth rate of the two will of course be different.

If planning thinking continues to be used to expand investment, and if economic decision-making continues to be administrative, the indicator of electricity consumption cannot be used for China.

Final Analysis Conclusion:

Foreign scholars are right to insist that there should be a high positive correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth, but they do not understand the true meaning of Chinese characteristics. What is it, and domestic experts always "copy from the books". Chen Gong pointed out that this is a problem of economic structure. In this sense, it is right to emphasize structural adjustment for China's economic growth. The fact that the growth of power generation lags behind the growth of GDP also proves that there are many problems in the economic structure. The root cause is that the government invests a lot and is not efficient.

How long will this go on, with state-owned enterprises leading investment and private enterprises blindly investing, something that is not allowed by the ecological environment and economic efficiency? These are questions that our leaders, especially the National Development and Reform Commission, must answer as soon as possible.