How to view the recession in recent years

The Pearl River Delta has the highest agricultural production efficiency, the highest industrial production efficiency, and the highest commercial trade efficiency. The only shortcoming is that the strategic depth behind it is too small. It is certain that they cannot surpass Shanghai, but there is still no problem in staying in second place.

What can we say about the challenger behind Guangzhou? It is advisable to take a broad view of the scenery.

As for Guangdong’s economy, we need to examine the Guangdong economy from Shanghai’s perspective, from Beijing’s perspective, from China’s perspective, and from an international perspective.

1. Guangdong’s decline is relative.

1-1. Yangtze River Delta. Shanghai's control is too strict, but the surrounding urban agglomerations are growing like weeds, which is extremely scary. In fact, the surrounding cities in the Yangtze River Delta are all extensions of Shanghai's economic tentacles. When capital is strictly controlled, capital will overflow to surrounding cities in need of funds. Even Beijing has not thought of this phenomenon, because Beijing also controls capital, so why is there no overflow? It is surrounded by poor counties. In 2014, the Yangtze River Delta undoubtedly surpassed the Pearl River Delta. In 2018, the Yangtze River Delta will form the world's largest urban agglomeration.

1-2, Song Ziwen. Who should we thank for the Yangtze River Delta today? The answer is: Song Ziwen. In the 1930s, there were two philosophers who had the ability to dominate the direction of national economic policies and controlled two countries respectively. One was Stalin, who was a representative of the planned economy. The other one is Song Ziwen, who studied classical liberal market economics. Stalin said: We must give priority to the development of heavy industry. China has chosen to develop light industry. Anyone in the world who wants to ravage it can ravage it at any time. Song Ziwen: Unswervingly implement the line of a liberal market economy. Judging from the 1978 reforms, the planned economy has no way out. This is the fundamental reason why China’s planned economy did not collapse like the Soviet Union. Economic collapse is a very terrible thing. , see the acquisition of Japan in 1949 and the collapse of the Russian Soviet Union. Today we look back at the problem. From the perspective of 1949, Stalin’s disposal of social assets was correct. From the perspective of 1991, Song Ziwen’s disposal of social assets and expectations for economic development were correct. This is a matter of perspective on the practical science of economics. Some people can only see twenty or thirty years, and some people see a longer term. Today we need to review the decisions we make today. We are extremely wise, glorious, and correct. Where will our decision take us? Let me tell you a joke, where is Song Ziwen from Guangdong?

1-3. Resources of the Yangtze River Basin. It covers an area of ??1.8 million square kilometers and has a population of 400 million. It is connected to the Huaihe River, the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, and the Qiantang River. The Pearl River Basin is no match at all. It will be a matter of time before the Pearl River Basin is surpassed.

1-4. Reform of tax-sharing system. The so-called Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are wrong. China only has two economic zones, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Beijing is a non-coastal city and the so-called political center. That is, it achieves its own so-called economic development by depriving other places of the economic development results. It is euphemistically called the headquarters economy. In Chinese terms, Shanghai feeds Beijing. You must think that Shanghai has fed Beijing for sixty years. Beijing is very grateful, right? Shanghai wants to build Yangshan Port, but Beijing doesn't take a stand. Not taking a stand is just an attitude. After the reform and opening up, places like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong were heavily westernized, so the local governments were more open-minded and their management was looser, and the economy developed. Beijing continues to make big moves and reform the tax-sharing system, which is an open-fire grab. This is the so-called political economic development model of Beijing. If we assume that Beijing is not the administrative center of the country, then Beijing is probably the same as Shunping County, Baoding City, Hebei Province (a national-level poverty-stricken county). It is just a rope bed and a tile stove.

1-5. Anti-market economy. There is a saying at the 18th National Congress that the market controls social resources. Why do we say this? Because it can't be done. In fact, cracking down on pornography is very simple. You only need to collect the licenses of the pornographic establishments and no longer issue licenses to them. The pornography industry will not say that it has ceased operations, but it has retreated thousands of miles. The most ridiculous thing is to collect taxes and protection fees at the same time. While fighting against pornography. How much of the government tax revenue is contributed by weathered sites?

In the words of Guan Zhong: They are all career editors, so there is no need to rush into each other.

2. Guangzhou’s decline is relative.

2-1. The rise of Hong Kong.

We have drawn history into a straight line. With the public-private partnership between Beijing, Tianjin and Tang, Shanghai closed its stock exchange, and Guangzhou brutally promoted land reform. China's elites were all driven to Hong Kong. For a time, Hong Kong began to rise, replacing Shanghai as the financial center of the Far East. , the rise of Hong Kong means the relative decline of Guangzhou.

2-2. The rise of Shenzhen. What was Deng Xiaoping most worried about? They were worried that Guangdong’s economy would not be able to lose its tail as it developed, so they imitated Mao Zedong and began to play with sand. This sand was Shenzhen. With the brutal expansion of Shenzhen, the central government believed that it was time to kill pigs during the New Year, so it began to reform the tax-sharing system.

2-3. The potential rise of Macau. In fact, Macau can ask the central government for Hengqin Island, and then follow Hong Kong's example, engage in investment immigration, and use the money earned to invest in reclamation and land reclamation to build Macau's own Yangshan Port. As a rising star, Macau has many choices. many.

2-4. Zhanjiang, Yangjiang, Maoming, Taishan, Shantou, and Shanwei can all expand ports and undertake industrial transfers, but the thinking of people in these places cannot be changed at once.

3. Guangdong’s economic response strategies.

3-1. Dual currency reform. In order to clear the currency cost obstacle to Guangdong's economic development, my opinion is that Guangxi and Guangdong should complete their economic integration with Hong Kong, use Hong Kong dollars as trade settlement currencies, and develop independent economic systems. In 10 years, the economies of these regions will have a huge impact. growth.

3-2. Develop manufacturing industry. We will not let go of our efforts to develop the manufacturing industry. In terms of regional economic competitiveness, the Pearl River Delta is not a rival to the Yangtze River Delta at all, and its social and economic resources do not allow it to compete with the Yangtze River Delta. Therefore, the Pearl River Delta must prepare an economic development plan in advance, develop the economy asymmetrically, and avoid conflicts with the Yangtze River Delta. There's an economic crash in the triangle.

3-3. Foreign workers. Guangdong's economic development is actually created by migrant workers. When the second generation of farmers is unwilling to move bricks, Guangdong will introduce foreign workers on a large scale to ensure that Guangdong's economic development cannot be interrupted. Regarding this issue, we must deal with it in advance. The shortage of labor in Guangdong is not a shortage of one or two days, but a long-term shortage.

3-4. Prices force reform. Guangdong has abolished highway tolls. The asymmetric competition between the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta will start with price competition. The first thing is to cancel highway tolls. Guangdong's production and living costs will decrease, and costs will in turn be reduced. Promote economic development and increase the speed of accumulation of social wealth.

3-5. Seek benefits from reform. All administrative fees will be cancelled. Why can’t Taobao survive in Shanghai? Because Shanghai is full, the control is relatively lenient. And if we take Beijing as an example, Shanghai is simply a paradise for entrepreneurship. Taobao wanted to set up a branch in Beijing, but it gave five temporary residence permits in one day. It is really outrageous for Beijing to treat the richest man like this. If Guangdong's economy wants to develop, its administrative costs will be lower than those of Beijing and Shanghai.

3-6. Expand the South Asian and Southeast Asian markets. Shanghai is Shanghai because behind it are the Yangtze River, Huaihe River Basin, and Qiantang River Basin, and on the other side of the East China Sea are Japan and South Korea. Guangdong's strategic depth cannot be expanded, but its strategic frontier can be advanced, that is, exporting influence and value to Southeast Asia. Every year, a thousand places are allocated to the second generation of rich and official officials in South and Southeast Asia to form a cultural bond. Expand economic and political influence to South Asia and Southeast Asia.

3-7. Infrastructure construction. Large-scale ports will be built in Zhanjiang, Yangjiang, Maoming, Taishan, Shantou and Shanwei, sea reclamation will be carried out, and labor-intensive industries will be prioritized to be transferred to the two wings of Guangdong.

3-8. Futures market. Establish the Asia-Pacific futures trading market.