Ma Guangyuan: Uncover the secrets of real estate information!

In my personal WeChat official account article, I analyzed the news that "Beijing house prices have dropped by 20%" which was hotly debated by the media recently, and thought it was false news. The real situation of real estate in hot cities represented by Beijing is that after strict regulation, the real estate market has officially entered a wait-and-see period: sellers are unwilling to sell at reduced prices, buyers are unwilling to sell at current prices, the game status of buyers and sellers has changed, and the real estate market has entered the buyer's market. Over time, the loosening and downward adjustment of prices is a trend. At this point, we can say with certainty that the real estate cycle has basically ended from 20 15 to 20 16, and the days of real estate have indeed changed. However, if you believe that house prices have dropped by 20% now, you really should pay IQ tax.

The crux of the matter is, a fake news, why is the media hot? In addition to the mood and professionalism of the media-the news of price reduction is easy to attract attention, and the real estate market is always full of false news, which is the key to the problem. People are so keen on spreading false news that the real news in the market is unknown at all or monopolized by local governments and developers. This is one of the biggest shortcomings of China real estate market, but unfortunately, few people realize the importance of this problem. There are many problems in China's real estate market. Whether it is market management, market transactions, land system or house price statistics, a series of basic systems are seriously incomplete, but in the whole real estate market, the biggest chaos is the confusion and opacity of information. There are serious incomplete and untrue information in housing price statistics, basic housing supply, construction area, basic sales data and basic networking of real estate information.

First of all, the annual land supply information is opaque.

The government's annual construction plan, affordable housing construction plan and annual land transfer plan are either incomplete, not announced at all, or announced and not implemented. In the case that the primary land market is completely monopolized by the government, the transparency of land supply information is extremely important for the expectation of future housing prices, but for a long time, the progress of land supply information is extremely limited. Most cities only publish a lot of figures, such as the specific supply plan, the amount of land stock and the severity of land hoarding. Except for the estimates of research institutions, the government never makes it public, resulting in the illusion that land is getting less and less.

Second, the supply information of the house is opaque.

After obtaining the development right of a specific area, the developer actually becomes the only product provider of this local area in a specific period. It is not uncommon to use information asymmetry to develop by stages, speculate on concepts, drive up housing prices and hoard real estate, which leads to the real estate market becoming a "lemon market" with opaque information, and developers have absolute right to speak and price. Some hot-fried Japanese CDs are true or false, and how the sales progress of various properties is, in fact, property buyers simply have no way of knowing.

Third, the statistical indicators of housing prices are chaotic and the statistical data are distorted.

Since the housing reform from 65438 to 0998, China's real estate market has been short of authoritative housing price statistics. Under the monopoly of developers and local governments, the data sources of academic and scientific research institutions are limited, and the indexes compiled by some institutions are not authoritative, but also realize their own commercial interests by manipulating information indicators. In the case of distortion of housing price statistics, some official housing price statistics are not only divorced from reality, but also have a lot of jokes. In 2009, the housing price in China skyrocketed, and the official statistical conclusion was that it only rose by 1.5%. However, the official statistics of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have lost their statistical value and significance because of constant distortion. Here I emphasize that the statistics of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities are actually a joke.

When the government monopolizes the land supply and developers monopolize the real information of housing prices, the whole real estate market becomes the "iron curtain" of information, and people can only dance under various information baton that is difficult to distinguish between true and false. For example, since 1998 housing reform, China's statistical department has never conducted a housing basic survey. At present, how many houses are in stock in China, how big is the gap between supply and demand in each city, and what percentage of people own more than two houses? These questions are actually very simple. Because the house itself is real estate, housing management bureaus all over the country have detailed statistical data, but such a simple question has become the biggest information mystery in the field of real estate in China.

In 20 12, Beijing Public Security Bureau conducted a comprehensive inventory of Beijing residents at the social security management level, and there were 3.8 million vacant houses. However, as soon as the information was published, it was immediately denied by the relevant departments, but what the real data was was not made public. The author's CPPCC proposal this year requires the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to publish the housing stock data in Beijing, and calls on relevant departments to conduct a housing census. Judging from the feedback and results of the current proposal, the situation is still not ideal, because many houses in Beijing simply do not have the right to know this information.

In the absence of public basic data, we will only see the conclusion that land will never be enough, houses will never be in short supply, and house prices will definitely rise. What supports this conclusion is data that will never be made public. Everything is speculation, everything is artificial speculation, and there is only one purpose: to maintain the high housing prices and the status quo of land finance in China. 20 12 according to the requirements of the State Council, the personal housing information systems of 40 key cities in China should be networked with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development before June 30, 20 12. Now, we are engaged in unified registration of real estate, but it is still unknown to what extent these data will eventually be made public.

We have seen that while carrying out the most frightening regulation in history, all walks of life have made suggestions to establish a long-term mechanism. But in the mainstream discussion, everyone seems to ignore the importance of information. I would like to remind you that without the basic information disclosure system and basic data, any supervision is empty talk, and any long-term mechanism is just a castle in the air. Once again, I call on everyone to speed up the idea of establishing basic data and data disclosure systems such as house price statistics, housing stock and housing transactions, and ensure the openness and transparency of data through legislation. At the same time, it is the basis and premise for the healthy development of the real estate market in China to make use of the advantages of unified registration of real estate to conduct a comprehensive survey of the housing situation in China. Otherwise, we can only use all kinds of false news to panic and worry.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-06-08. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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