Jokes about pork and vegetables

Before the winter comes, the "vegetable basket" sinks first.

Broccoli 10 yuan a catty, spinach 15 yuan a catty, leek is even more exaggerated, reaching 18 yuan a catty. According to the "National Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of vegetables has been rising continuously since 10, with an average of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets nationwide.

You know, at present, the average price of pork in bazaars is only 10.5 yuan/kg, and "vegetables are more expensive than meat" has become a real and magical spit, and various teasing jokes are also emerging one after another: the year before last, pork was fried with cabbage, and it was reluctant to put pork. This year, I became reluctant to put cabbage, and I was too poor to eat meat.

It can be said that the soaring vegetable prices have affected every family. Some netizens said that the price was too expensive for their wallets to hold, and some netizens thought that it was not easy for vegetable farmers to catch up with the "good market" and let them make big money, which was also a comfort.

Then the problem is coming, and the price of vegetables has doubled. Can vegetable farmers really benefit from it? The answer may be unexpected.

Why is the price of vegetables skyrocketing?

In fact, from September 19, Shouguang, known as the barometer of vegetable prices in China, discovered "abnormality". The vegetable price index has been rising for four weeks in a row, and there is a tendency to continue to rise.

In Shouguang Agricultural Products Logistics Park, wholesalers "made a big fight" to buy spinach. In the same period last year, the price of high-quality spinach was 2 yuan/kg, and this year it has increased to 5 yuan ~ 8.5 yuan/kg. Even if multiplied by several times, it is not enough.

"It's too wet, the leafy vegetables are too bad, and at least half of them are lost." Compared with wholesalers, the anxiety of vegetable farmers is increasing. "Water can't seep into the ground and turn into clear water. Many people's dishes are soaked directly."

Vegetables are planted twice a year, with early sowing around June 20th and middle sowing around July 10. According to the law, they can be fully supplied, but contrary to expectations, the rainfall this year is obviously more than in previous years.

Especially after the end of September, it rained continuously in a large area in the north and the temperature dropped rapidly. Affected by large-scale and long-term continuous rainfall, vegetable fields are flooded not only in Shandong, but also in northern vegetable producing areas such as Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi and Shaanxi.

Some villagers also built greenhouses to grow vegetables, which also caused heavy losses. Because the outer frame of the greenhouse needs to be placed on the soil slope, the soil is soft and collapses after being soaked in heavy rain, and the whole thing collapses. Although the greenhouse can stop the rain, it can't stop the water, and the seeds can't be planted at all. Even if you plant it reluctantly, the seedlings are very thin.

The difficulty in harvesting vegetables has led to a sharp increase in acquisition costs. Vegetables grown in the open field are generally harvested mechanically, but now they can only be harvested manually because of serious water accumulation.

To make matters worse, the prices of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides have risen one after another this year. Take compound fertilizer as an example. In September alone, the price of fertilizer raw materials rose by 1 many times. Coupled with the rising energy prices such as coal, the cost of greenhouses has increased, which has continuously pushed up the cost of vegetable cultivation.

Under the butterfly effect, many merchants have to take a circuitous route to collect vegetables. For example, the spinach in Beijing market mainly comes from Liaocheng, Shandong. Due to the serious reduction in production, only a small amount of spinach in greenhouse can be listed in Liaoning. Broccoli mainly comes from Langfang and Handan in Hebei, but this year it can only be purchased in large quantities from Yinchuan in Ningxia.

The non-main producing areas lack the advantages of economies of scale, and the transportation cost increases sharply, so the price naturally rises. It is worth mentioning that the price of gasoline and diesel increased by 13 times during the year, and a little bit of factors piled up together, which was finally reflected on the table through the price of vegetables.

As for how long this round of vegetable prices will rise, Zhang Jing, a researcher at China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, gave a prediction: "In the short term, it is easier to rise than to fall. In the future, with the recovery of vegetable production, some delayed vegetables will be listed one after another, and the prices of some varieties may also fall. However, continuous rainfall has affected the cultivation of vegetables in autumn and winter in some places, and it is expected that the overall price of vegetables in winter will be high. "

Zhu, a food industry analyst in China, also pointed out that with the decrease of rainfall, vegetable production will resume, but at present vegetables basically belong to the retail business model, and with the arrival of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will further intensify, and it is more likely that vegetable prices will remain high in the coming months.

Despite this, the vegetable farmers are not happy, but gloomy. Because of the weather, this year's vegetable output is not only much worse than before, but also the expenses of seeds, seedlings, land rent, labor, water and electricity, agricultural materials and so on are much less than before. I invested in it in the early stage and almost lost blood.

Can vegetable farmers really benefit?

The particularity of vegetables determines that they cannot be stored for a long time, and their timeliness is extremely short. Therefore, although the price of vegetables has gone up, if consumers are unwilling to pay the bill, wholesalers of agricultural products will reduce their purchases. Finally, vegetables can only rot in the ground, and neither end will benefit.

I still remember that at the end of March this year, a short video unveiled the "spinach farmer"-near a farmer's market in Handan City. Because the spinach in the car could not be sold for a long time, a farmer couple finally had to give 1300 kg of spinach to the vegetable vendor at the low price of 15 yuan.

Now, it's only been half a year, but spinach has gone from being neglected at the beginning to the point where "vegetables are more expensive than meat", while vegetable farmers who have no vegetables to harvest can only watch the price of spinach soar and sit still.

"Vegetable farmers with spinach in their hands may still make some money, but this money can only be said to be a reward from God, and they will lose money next year." A vegetable vendor who went to the northeast to buy spinach said, "Now the vegetable farmers in the northeast are very happy, but they can't think of it. As long as the supply of spinach returns to normal, who will bear the risk of paying an extra dollar per catty of spinach? "

Generally speaking, there are several participants in the vegetable trading process, including vegetable farmers, vegetable banks, wholesalers, retailers and buyers. Vegetable farmers at the bottom of the pyramid have no say in pricing, and it is often vegetable warehouses and wholesalers who can control prices.

Taking advantage of the asymmetry of information, the vegetable guild will buy a large number of vegetables when they are mature and sell them when the price of vegetables rises to the highest point. After that, vegetables will flow into vegetable wholesale markets in various provinces and cities across the country. Then the wholesaler goes to the major supermarkets for retail, and the supermarkets are finally priced according to the wholesale price. In the process of layer-by-layer overweight, vegetable farmers are always the weakest party, and they are very lucky to get a profit of 10%.

Regardless of vegetable production, processing or circulation, this industrial chain belongs to labor-intensive industries. The rising of various costs, on the one hand, makes the wholesale price of vegetables keep rising, on the other hand, makes the profit rate of vegetables keep falling.

According to the annual average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables detected by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from 20 1 1 to 20 19, the price of vegetables in China fluctuated and rose.

But rising prices do not mean "making money". According to the data of Agricultural and Rural Information Center, the profit rate of vegetable industry in 20 1 1 year is as high as 85%, and it will be 40.09% in 20 18. The overall profit rate of vegetable cost shows a downward trend, which has dropped by about 45% in eight years.

"If you want to manage the food, you have to spend more money." In Xishe Village, Zhengding County, Hebei Province, Huang Qingshan, chairman of Qingyuan Hotan Vegetable Planting Cooperative, said that due to environmental protection requirements, the cooperative has invested a lot of manpower and material resources in the use of pesticides in recent years. Although the price of chemical fertilizer has risen repeatedly this year, it can only be used.

"The promotion of these advanced and green technologies has improved the quality of vegetable products, but it has also increased the input cost." Huang Qingshan said that in addition, the investment in equipment such as vacuum precooling is also very large. "This account can't be calculated carefully, and it will cry if it is calculated carefully."

Just like a strange circle that can't go out, vegetable farmers just don't make money when the price of vegetables is high. In this regard, Huang Qingshan felt helpless: "Last summer, coriander on the market sold for 50 to 60 yuan per catty, even in 80 yuan. However, due to the weather, there is little coriander in the field, not much. How can we make money? In most cases, when the price of a dish is high, the majority of vegetable farmers are basically at a loss. "

Today, most people still blindly attribute the situation of vegetable farmers to "blindly following the trend of planting", but the vegetable market changes very quickly and it is not easy to step on it. We can feel the market demand for vegetables today, but we can't predict what the market will be like tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

Secondly, under normal production conditions, vegetables have obvious seasonality and regionality. In the listing season, they are basically listed in batches. There is often a bad market near the origin of related products.

Fortunately, the agricultural sector has begun to use digital means to guide agricultural planting, but vegetable farmers who are not yet fully mature and rely on the weather to eat still have to face the "game" of adventure.

Is inflation coming?

When it comes to rising prices, it is easy to think of inflation, especially this year.

Not only vegetables, but also the prices of all kinds of commodities are rising to varying degrees, from commodities and energy to daily necessities such as towels and paper towels, all over the world.

Under the pressure of public opinion that the price of vegetables in India doubled, KFC in Japan didn't sell French fries, and one kilogram of beef 1090 yuan in South Korea, there were different degrees of "crazy buying" abroad, and the shelves of IKEA and Wal-Mart were snapped up.

According to economic theory, if more money is issued, there will be too much money supply in the market, which will lead to rising prices and declining purchasing power. However, it needs to be clarified that the central bank has not issued a large amount of money. The surge of vegetables in China is more due to the large-scale reduction of vegetable production caused by extreme weather factors, which leads to the imbalance between supply and demand.

When the price of pork rose last year, some people on the Internet kept preaching that "inflation is coming". Now, pork has fallen below the cost price.

On the other hand, the increase in vegetable prices is mostly green leafy vegetables, and there are no outrageous prices for crops such as carrots and potatoes.

In addition, the production cycle of vegetables is short. The production cycle of leafy vegetables such as Chinese cabbage, spinach and leek is about 30 to 50 days, which is much better than that of pork. The production cycle of pork takes half a year. So the supply-side problem can only be alleviated at this time.

To say the least, we also have the "Vegetable Basket Project", which was established in 1988 to alleviate the problem of insufficient supply of non-staple food in China.

After 33 years of unremitting efforts, China has jumped from a country lacking vegetables to a country with the richest vegetables in the world. Its output and consumption rank first in the world, and residents can eat fresh vegetables all year round.

At present, China's vegetable production and sales account for more than 50% of the global market share, with an annual output of more than 700 million tons, and the per capita possession is 1000 kg, with an average of about 3 kg of vegetables per day. In the long run, there will be no problem with supply.

Therefore, the probability of inflation caused by rising vegetable prices is not great. Conversely, this increase in vegetable prices is not caused by inflation.

What's more, China is the only country with the most complete industrial categories in the world, and most of the commodities needed by the economy and society are basically self-sufficient.

In recent years, China has been continuously strengthening the strategic reserves of bulk commodities, especially in raw materials such as grain, energy and ore. When the price is obviously abnormal, China will use the reserve materials to ensure the supply, thus stabilizing the price. When commodity prices are effectively controlled, China's inflation level can be kept within the target range.

Although the supply chain is temporarily blocked, it is foreseeable that with the end of the rainy season in the north and the listing of vegetables in the south, the price of vegetables will soon drop gradually, so there is no need to panic.

It is better to enjoy the rare "freedom to eat meat" before the price of vegetables comes down.