I would like to ask our government and enterprises their own countermeasures and influences after China's entry into WTO.

First, according to the terms of the current preliminary negotiations, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on China.

After Premier Zhu's visit to the United States, the U.S. government announced the preliminary contents of the Sino-U.S. negotiations on China's accession to the World Trade Organization, which aroused great repercussions in China and the international community. It is generally acknowledged by the international community that China has made a major "concession" to join the WTO, and the American political and business circles also acknowledge that the China administration has made a major "concession". Many people in our country think that joining the WTO under this condition will bring great impact to China, so they have more doubts about joining the WTO.

Of course, some of the conditions promised in this negotiation have some influence in some major areas, and will indeed have some influence on China's economy, but this needs to be analyzed in detail. In fact, if we carefully analyze the conditions of China's initial commitment to join the WTO, we can see that this influence is not "opening the door" to allow foreign enterprises to enter as described by some newspapers and foreign media, but there are actually many restrictions and protections, and there is still a certain transition period; The initiative is basically in China's own hands. We should have a clear understanding of this.

1 agriculture. There are many fields under discussion at present, the first is agriculture. For American agricultural products, the first thing is to allow the import of wheat infected with TCK disease. However, lifting the import ban actually has little impact on China, and it is not a problem of the WTO itself. After China's entry into WTO, the greater impact will be to increase the "commodity quota", that is, the annual "quota" of imported grain will be increased to 2 1 10,000 tons. The import amount is less than 2 1 10,000 tons, and the low tariff of 1%-3% is implemented; High tariffs will continue to be imposed on imports above the quota of 2 1 10,000 tons, but it will gradually drop from the current level of 30%-40% to the level of 17% in 2004, and partially to 14%. The quota of 2 1 10,000 tons may have a greater impact on China's economy at first, because China only imports more than 3 million tons of grain every year at present. Even if the import quota was only 7-10.2 million tons in the previous two years, the increase in imports is still relatively large. At present, the sales of agricultural products in China are difficult and the supply of products exceeds demand, which may have a certain impact on domestic agricultural products prices and farmers' income in China. But in the long run, firstly, the import of 2 1 10,000 tons still accounts for only about 2%-3% of China's total grain consumption, accounting for about 10% of the market transaction volume (the part that enters the market), and will not affect China's grain market. Second, the decline in food prices has an impact on farmers' income. However, at present, 70% of the grain in China belongs to farmers' self-sufficiency, which mainly affects 30% of the commodity grain sold to the market, which has a great impact on the market price, but the impact on farmers' income is still limited. Third, the further decline of agricultural product prices will have a positive impact on the reform of agricultural product price system and grain circulation system, and will also have a positive impact on the adjustment of agricultural structure. Fourth, lower international food prices will curb the rise of domestic food prices, which will have an impact on farmers' current income, but it will have a beneficial and positive impact on promoting the transfer of rural population to industry and other non-agricultural industries. Because of the reduction of food prices, the average wage level can be reduced, which is conducive to the development of industry; Through the improvement of industrialization, the current speed of rural population entering the industry and tertiary industry, the possibility of rural labor transfer and obtaining higher-paid employment opportunities will also increase. Therefore, if we admit that the increase of farmers' income is unlikely to continue to rely on the increase of agricultural income, but mainly depends on the development of industrial and non-agricultural industries, then, although this will have an impact on agricultural product prices and farmers' income in the short term, it will benefit 300 million agricultural laborers and 700 million rural population in the medium and long term. Of course, if we join the WTO, we should take corresponding positive measures to minimize the negative impact on farmers' income in the short term.

As far as specific varieties are concerned, soybeans and cotton may have a greater impact on agriculture. According to the Sino-US agricultural cooperation agreement, by 2004, China's soybean oil import quota will reach 3.3 million tons. According to China's soybean oil yield 14%- 15%, importing 3.3 million tons of soybean oil is equivalent to importing 22 million tons of soybeans, which is greater than the total domestic soybean output. This will bring great pressure to soybean production in China, followed by cotton. Last year, China imported 200,000 tons of cotton. After the signing of the agreement, cotton imports will soon become 743,000 tons, and will reach 894,000 tons in 2004. At present, China's cotton inventory has reached 5 million tons, so the pressure is also great.

2. Automobile industry. Many people think that after China's entry into WTO, automobile tariffs will be reduced to zero, which will be a fatal blow to China's automobile industry. In fact, even after China's accession to the WTO this year, car prices will not fall immediately. Our promised condition is that by 2008 (the United States requires 2005), the tariff on automobile protection will be reduced from the current 80%- 100% to 25%. With such a long transition period, the domestic automobile industry has time to grow step by step and compete with foreign manufacturers. And at present, the car price in China is only 20%-50% higher than that in the international market. Therefore, after joining the WTO, the price will not be the biggest impact. The influence of investment and service may be greater than that of price. In terms of investment, we stipulate that the foreign investment in vehicle and engine production shall not exceed 50%, which will be phased out after China's entry into WTO. This has a great influence; Besides, compared with automobile manufacturing, there is a bigger gap between China and foreign countries in terms of sales and service. In research and development (R&D), there is a big gap between China and foreign countries. Big foreign companies like Toyota and General Motors spend as much as $5-6 billion on R&D every year, while the total R&D expenditure of the whole automobile industry in China is only over one billion yuan. The design and development of a brand-new car requires 2 billion dollars of R&D expenditure, and the modification cost is 654.38 dollars+0.1200 million dollars. China's R&D expenditure is only enough for refitting, so it can be said that it can't compete with foreign countries in this respect. Now, it seems that the only thing we can compete with foreign countries may be car maintenance services. The domestic automobile maintenance service system is perfect, and the automobile import volume in Taiwan Province Province is declining instead of rising under the condition that the automobile protection tariff is very low.

In a word, China's entry into WTO will have a comprehensive impact on the automobile industry, but it will never be washed away at once. We have a breathing space, and we should seize this opportunity to complete the transformation and take China's automobile industry to a new level.

3. Telecom industry. In fact, the telecommunications industry does not allow foreign companies to open up straight people. China promised to lift the import restrictions on pagers and mobile phones within six years, allow foreign investors to enter the mobile telecommunications business within two years, and enter the basic telecommunications business within four years. After China joined the WTO, foreign investment was allowed to account for 25% in the basic telecommunications industry. The value-added telecommunications industry allows foreign investment to account for 30%. However, these "beginners" have certain restrictions in varieties, regions, degrees, methods and so on. Especially in the field of mobile telecommunications and basic telecommunications services, foreign capital is not allowed to operate exclusively, but only allowed to participate in joint ventures. At present, the asking price of the United States in this regard is to require foreign companies to hold 60% of shares, at least 51%; Foreign companies can directly export internationally, thus bypassing the China International Import and Export Administration. This goal is different from that of China. What is uncertain now is how many shares they are allowed to hold in the future and whether they can have a controlling stake. You can hold 5 1% shares in the value-added service industry and paging field, but not in other aspects. Therefore, our main commitment is to allow them to set up joint ventures and participate in shares, instead of letting them control the telecommunications industry in China. From this perspective, this is also the need for us to develop the telecommunications industry. In the past, some of our telecom companies also tried joint ventures, just to introduce their technology in time through joint ventures. So the advantages outweigh the disadvantages for us. Of course, foreign companies will get some income, but this will not have a great impact on China's national industry. On the contrary, it can accelerate the development of China telecom industry and keep pace with the development of international information industry.

4. Financial industry, another controversial area is the financial industry, which is actually similar to the telecommunications industry. In terms of banking, the current negotiations are to allow foreign businessmen to conduct business in various places, mainly to set up branches in various places from now on. But this business is mainly that they can do foreign currency business for foreign-funded enterprises and joint ventures. After a certain period of time, they are allowed to operate some RMB businesses of foreign-funded enterprises and foreigners. At present, training in Shanghai and Shenzhen has been gradually liberalized. But this kind of RMB business is mainly the RMB business of foreign-funded enterprises. Then after a period of time, they may be allowed to operate the foreign currency business of China residents, but they are not allowed to operate the RMB business of China residents and China enterprises. And if foreign currency cannot be directly exchanged with RMB, many people will be willing to deposit foreign currency in China Bank. In addition, where foreign banks can conduct business still needs the approval of the People's Bank of China. From this perspective, it should be said that the restrictions are great. Second, another opening in the financial sector is to allow foreign investors to engage in joint venture banks, with shares accounting for 50%, but there are certain restrictions.

5. Insurance industry, the opening speed of insurance industry may be faster. The proportion of foreign-owned shares of life insurance companies can reach 50% when entering the customs, and 51%after one year; In the field of non-life insurance and reinsurance, foreign investors will be allowed to hold 565,438+0% of the shares of joint venture insurance companies, and wholly-owned branches can be established within two years to operate a certain range of insurance products, not all insurance businesses can be operated by them.

6. customs duties. This is another area with wide influence. On the one hand, China agreed to reduce agricultural tariffs, on the other hand, it also agreed to reduce industrial tariffs from 24.6% in 1997 to 9% in 2005. About 4%. In some areas, it has dropped a lot, such as chemical and pharmaceutical products, which have dropped to the same tariff of 5%-6% as other countries; The automobile industry decreased from 80%- 100% to 25% in 2005, and the tariff on automobile parts decreased to 10%. It should be said that the decline is relatively large. But we should also consider this influence comprehensively. In the past, the nominal tariff in China was relatively high, and the actual tariff rate was very low, only 3%-5% per year, which was not considered as smuggling (high tariffs made smuggling more motivated). In all imported products, we have implemented various tariff reductions and exemptions, preferential policies for joint ventures, preferential policies for large and medium-sized enterprises to import advanced equipment, and preferential policies for some raw materials and processing enterprises, so in fact, our tariff collection ratio is not large. This does not mean that lowering tariffs has no impact, but its actual impact may be smaller than the figures show. In addition, the impact of tariff reduction should be analyzed as a whole, not just by looking at the impact on a certain interest group. For example, in automobile and other industries, the reduction of tariffs will have a greater impact on the vehicle assembly industry, but it may be beneficial to parts manufacturers, and the employment of the entire automobile industry may increase greatly.

In addition, there is an understanding of reducing tariffs. At present, the tariff level in China is 16.8%, and we promise to reduce it to 15% in 2006 and 10% in 2005. At present, the average tariff level of developing countries is 14%, that of developed countries is 3%, and that of WTO members is 6%. It can be seen that China's tax reduction conforms to the international development trend and is not a concession; In addition, with the economic globalization, the protective role of tariffs is gradually declining. For example, China signed the Information Technology Trade Agreement (ITA), which means that by 2005, the tariff on information technology products will be reduced to zero. Why are we doing this? This is because the globalization of high-tech products requires the free flow of parts around the world. If the tariff is not reduced to zero, people will not come to you for production, so it is impossible to develop high-tech industries, especially in China, a country that needs to strive to catch up.

From all aspects, there is no doubt that China's accession to the WTO has costs and costs, and it has an impact on some fields, but the impact is not as great as people think now. Moreover, there is a transition period of 3-5 years, and some areas have a transition period of 6 years, which still leaves us some room for adjustment. What we should do now is to step up our domestic system reform, speed up the opening of all fields to domestic enterprises, especially to the non-state-owned economy, strengthen the development of domestic competition in all fields, improve the management ability in all fields, and enhance the competitiveness of China enterprises.

In the era of economic globalization, after joining the WTO, China will not only be the receiver of globalization rules, but also participate in the formulation of globalization rules, and can also use the WTO as a forum to resolve trade disputes. Under the impetus of developed countries such as the United States, the next round of WTO negotiations is about to begin. The core issue is how to expand the opening of countries to agriculture, information and service industries dominated by the United States and other countries. If China does not join the WTO now, it will not only be more difficult to join in the future, but also deprive us of the right to speak in the new round of negotiations, strengthen the bargaining power of developing countries, and make the outcome of the new round of negotiations even more unfavorable to us. This is also a "future factor" that needs to be considered.

The biggest advantage of joining the WTO is that it can promote the reform of the domestic economic system and the development of market competition in various fields of the domestic economy by making certain commitments to the international community. Moreover, facing the situation of insufficient domestic demand, joining the WTO may have a positive impact on China's economic growth and employment growth in the short term. On the one hand, because the markets of various countries are more open to our products, trade will increase and exports will increase; On the other hand, since China's entry into the WTO has made more commitments to the international market, foreign investors will feel that the investment environment in China has improved and will increase their investment in China, which is also conducive to the recovery of the domestic economy. Therefore, if we can see that such positive promotion has offset the negative impact, even in the short term, joining the WTO may not be a bad thing, not to mention that in the long term, China will always go global and carry out reform and opening up, so as to promote China's economic development and structural reform through opening up.

Second, the possibility of China's entry into the WTO at present.

During Premier Zhu's visit to the United States, the US government did not approve the signing of the final agreement with China. This has also caused a voice and opposition from the American business community. After Premier Zhu returned to China, the US-led NATO bombed China's embassy in Yugoslavia. Sino-US relations have deteriorated sharply. In this case, what are the prospects for China to join the WT0?

This problem should be analyzed from two aspects: the attitude of China and the attitude of the United States.

From the attitude of our country, the most fundamental problem is to analyze whether joining WTO is good or bad for our country. If the advantages of China's accession to the WTO outweigh the disadvantages, then we should actively strive for accession regardless of Sino-US relations. Because the more international relations deteriorate, the more vulnerable we are in the world, the more we develop our economy, the more we strive for the interests of China internationally, and the more we need to develop through further opening up. Western countries did not consider the interests of China, but to open our market and strive for the interests of other countries. This has not changed much now. We still have to strive for our best interests through negotiations as in the past, so as to realize the equality of rights and interests.

For the United States, this incident will not greatly change China's WTO accession negotiations, neither better nor necessarily worse. It won't be better, because they won't make China's entry into WTO better, because they feel that they have done something wrong to you, out of a sense of regret. The United States has the national interests of the United States, and the anti-China forces in the United States are still anti-China, and will not change because they bombed your embassy. But not necessarily worse. After this incident, including this round of turmoil, although the anti-China forces in the United States are clamoring that "the China government organized a March only to demand the price of joining the WTO", most people still look at the issue from the perspective of economic relations between the two countries. Lobbying activities in American business circles have also been strengthened, which will help offset the growth of anti-China forces, but it will not change much.

China leaders recently said: We will not give up our fundamental interests; It's no big deal to say 13. This shows China's position. After that, whether China can join the WTO this year actually depends on the change of the negotiating position of the United States. At present, it is still possible for China to join the WTO this year, but we might as well make an estimate of "50% to 50%".

Third, the necessity of further reform and opening up in China under the deteriorating international situation.

First of all, judging from the international economic situation, the growth of China's exports will not be very good in the long run. After entering the new century, we can't expect China's foreign trade conditions to be as good as in the 1980s and 1990s, nor will it have the relaxed international market enjoyed by Japanese and Asian "Four Little Dragons" when their economies took off. China's export surplus to the United States has reached a certain level, and the United States has taken various boycott measures. Europe also has various trade quotas to restrict China. Asia, Eastern Europe. Other developing countries in South America are also developing their own economies and competing with China. The world economy has once again entered a period of deflation. From this perspective, we must pay more attention to the domestic market and expand domestic demand. Under the new international situation, we need to realize that the more unfavorable the international situation is to us, the more determined we are to speed up reform and opening up.

First of all, we must speed up the reform of the domestic system and put us in your position as soon as possible. & gt； International trade documents >> (text of news report)

Weigh the advantages and disadvantages of China's entry into the WTO.

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Only by doing our own thing well can we really improve our national strength and international competitiveness. We can no longer "talk nonsense" and have no illusions. We can only proceed from the "three benefits" and accelerate reform and economic development.

The second is to speed up the pace of opening up to the outside world, even if it is to swallow some "bitter fruits" that we did not want to swallow in the past. This is because the so-called "development" concept means that backward countries shorten the gap with developed countries, not that backward countries themselves are better off today than yesterday. This includes the following meanings: first, developing countries must use the standards of the international market as a frame of reference to measure themselves and understand their backwardness and problems; Second, in order to achieve development, developing countries must grow faster, because your economic strength is growing, and so is the economic strength of others. If you grow slower than others, the gap will grow bigger and bigger in the end; Third, as a developing country, if it wants to catch up with advanced countries and stand among the nations of the world, it must pay a higher price than others, make more efforts and do more things, including some painful things. All this shows that to develop, we must open up, join the international market and stand the test of international competition. Opening up, like reform, is a difficult and painful thing, because for developing countries, it means going abroad to face the competition and squeeze of developed countries, and even risking letting foreign capital and products occupy the domestic market too much. But only by opening can we know that the frame of reference for international economic development is ten. Only in this way can we obtain the products, technology, capital, management and market needed for economic development in the world, and we can use and learn from the experience and lessons of other countries, take fewer detours and take more shortcuts, and gradually narrow the gap between China and developed countries. We can also achieve some economic development without opening to the outside world and closing the door. Life today is better than yesterday. However, as a country that has been greatly backward, the result of this can only be that the growth rate is not high enough, and the gap with developed countries will widen. In today's rapidly changing world technology and market, it is definitely not the way to close the door, because it will not achieve our goal of catching up with developed countries, and on the contrary, we may be bullied by others again. Now everyone is talking about the "gunboat policy" of western countries. The "gunboat policy" is to open the door of a country by force in history. In other words, if you don't take the initiative to open up and develop the economy earlier, you may eventually be passively beaten, forced to open up and be invaded. There is such a precedent in our history. In this sense, the purpose of our reform and opening up is, in the final analysis, to stop being bullied, so that we can develop and be on an equal footing with world powers. If we want to make our country strong, we must open to the world, measure ourselves by the high standards of the world, and make full use of all possible international markets, international capital and technology to accelerate our economic development and market construction.