The number of births per child fell below 5 million. How to reverse the negative population growth?

In recent years, driven by urbanization, more and more people have entered urban development, which has brought great demand for urban housing. With the dividend factors of hundreds of millions of people entering cities, we The real estate market has ushered in unprecedented development. According to last year's seventh census data, as of 2020, the country's urban permanent population has exceeded the 900 million mark, and our urban rate has also increased to about 65% currently, which is 75% away from our target. % only has 10 percentage points left. It can be said that our economy has developed rapidly in the past 20 years and the demand for our property market is also very tight. After all, the first thing everyone has to solve when arriving in the city is the housing problem. Many people first solve the problem by renting a house, and gradually I have the idea of ????buying a house and settling in the city. After all, the city has superior resources. At the same time, the advantages of urban commercial housing in maintaining and increasing the value are becoming more and more obvious!

With such a huge demand for home purchases, the real estate market has been developing rapidly in recent years. People are very enthusiastic about buying houses. Many times it is difficult to find a house, so many developers still have houses. The houses were sold out before they were even halfway repaired, which shows how strong the market demand has been in the past few years. Buying a house has become a lifelong goal for many people. However, in recent years, our property market has gradually cooled down, and the increase in housing prices has significantly slowed down. Especially after the property market cooled down in the second half of last year, the national average housing price increase dropped to 2.8%. The property of maintaining and increasing the value of houses has disappeared, and housing prices in many cities have A drop of thousands of yuan is something that has rarely happened over the years, and the current round of cooling in the property market has been going on for about a year. With the support of various encouraging policies this year, the market sentiment for home buying is still not very high. There is no strong rebound like in the past, and many people are not confident that the property market will continue to be hot in the future. There are many reasons for this, but one that must be mentioned is the demographic dividend!

Many people should not be surprised to see the results of this data, because since the second child was liberalized in early 2016, in addition to the growth that year, our newborn population has continued to increase until now. , the number of new students every year shows a downward trend, and last year our new student population had dropped to 10.62 million, setting a new low in recent decades. This trend is almost unstoppable. The main reasons for this are: There are two aspects. On the one hand, people's concept of fertility has changed. Marriage and having children are not regarded as something that must be done in life. The marriage rate has been declining in recent years, which has affected the simultaneous decline of the fertility rate; on the other hand, Nowadays, the cost of having children has increased. It costs at least hundreds of thousands of yuan to raise a child to adulthood, and this does not include the cost of getting married and buying a house when he grows up. Under the influence of these two factors, the overall number of new students has been declining!

The reason why our real estate market developed so fast in the past was that the demographic dividend played a role in the importance of housing. But now the new population is declining year by year, about half of what it was ten or twenty years ago. For It is self-evident how great the impact will be on the future real estate market. We know that if market demand is large, then supply and demand will be very tight, and market prices will easily increase. If market demand is small, it will be difficult for market prices to rise. As As the demographic dividend gradually disappears, our real estate market will gradually return to a stable and healthy state, and housing prices will not fluctuate significantly. This is the general trend. The golden era of real estate is over. Real estate once relied on the demographic dividend to make great progress. With the rapid development, now that the demographic dividend has disappeared, the scale of real estate will gradually stabilize!