Why did the oil price go down and the fuel tax go up?

The recent rumors about the increase of fuel surcharge have been "unfortunately" confirmed again, and the increase range and time have exceeded all previous expectations. Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration officially announced that the domestic fuel surcharge collection standard will be raised again from September 1 day, and the routes below 800km will be adjusted from 30 yuan to 60 yuan, and the routes above 800km will be adjusted from 60 yuan to 100 yuan, 40 days earlier than the implementation period stipulated after the last surcharge adjustment (10+00).

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For the soaring oil price, many people understand it according to the principles of economics, and think that oil is in short supply. However, relevant statistics tell us that oil supply exceeds demand. In the first quarter of 2004, the daily supply of crude oil exceeded the demand by about 300 thousand barrels; In the second quarter, the daily output of global crude oil was 8010.9 million barrels, with an average daily demand of 80.4 million barrels, and the daily supply exceeded demand10.5 million barrels. In mid-2005, "the daily supply of world oil is about 84 million barrels, and the daily consumption is about 83 million barrels" (Mei Xinyu's "China has no pricing power" and "World Knowledge" 2005. 15), and the daily supply exceeds demand by 6,543,800 barrels. So the reason for the rise in oil prices is not the shortage of oil, but other factors. In fact, the main reasons for the rise of oil prices since the 20th century are speculation on oil, the decline of oil prices in the 1990s and the sharp depreciation of the US dollar since the 20th century.

In the past eight or nine years, housing prices in China and most countries in the world have soared, the most important reason being the speculative behavior of real estate developers and "investors" who take housing as futures investment. A large number of "investors" who have no housing demand but want to make money by speculation put speculative funds into real estate, so that the sum of speculative funds and housing purchase funds is greater than the amount of funds needed to purchase residents' housing under normal circumstances, artificially causing strong demand and soaring housing prices. Similarly, the main reason for the surge in oil prices in recent years is speculation in oil futures. The difference is that oil speculation is stronger than real estate investment. On August 18, 2004, Economic Daily published an article entitled "Turbulence in the International Crude Oil Market", which wrote: "The speculation of investors trying to make a big profit from the rise and fall of oil prices has also contributed to the soaring oil prices. In recent years, due to the strict prevention and restraint of hot money in the international financial market, a considerable number of hedge funds began to enter the international crude oil futures market to buy and sell futures and seek high profits. At present, the trading volume of oil futures is several times that of spot trading. It is estimated that in the crude oil futures market, the real demanders only account for 30% of the total trading volume, and the rest are arbitrageurs. Chen Guangyuan, a researcher at Asia-Pacific Apollo Company who has been tracking the international crude oil market for a long time, said: "A few years ago, US funds accounted for about 7% to 8% of the oil industry, and this figure was five years ago. The latest data shows that the proportion of some hedge funds in the United States in international oil prices has risen to 1/4. "This article says that two years ago, speculative' investment funds' far exceeded the funds for buying oil because of' real demand'. The sum of the two causes the funds in the oil circulation field to far exceed the funds needed to buy these oils, which leads to "inflation" in this field and the rise of crude oil prices. As mentioned above, in 2005, the average daily supply and sales volume of global oil was more than 80 million barrels, "but the daily trading volume of the New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures reached 200 million barrels, and the daily trading volume of London International Petroleum Exchange was closer to 400 million barrels; Calculated by the amount, when the oil price is $50/barrel, the daily oil consumption in the world is about $4 billion, while the daily trading amount in the international oil market is as high as tens of billions of dollars. "

In 2005, the global average daily oil supply and sales volume was more than 80 million barrels, "but the daily trading volume of the New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures reached 200 million barrels, and the daily trading volume of London International Petroleum Exchange was closer to 400 million barrels". This means that crude oil will be sold by speculators several times a day. During the price increase period, every time the house is reversed, the general house price will rise once. Similarly, during the price increase period, when crude oil reverses once, the general oil price will also rise once; The oil price rises several times when it reverses (only falls several times when it takes profits). "In terms of the amount, when the oil price is $50/barrel, the daily oil consumption in the world is about $4 billion, while the daily trading amount in the international oil market is as high as tens of billions of dollars." When a product costs only $4 billion a day, but tens of billions of dollars pour in, then the price increase of this product will become the norm. Therefore, oil prices are based on speculators' speculation. "Oil futures prices are the pricing benchmark, and oil speculators like pickens have greater influence on oil prices than the oil ministers of the Gulf countries." ("China has no pricing power")

In addition, in the 1990s, prices in the United States have been rising, with an average annual price growth rate of several percent, while oil prices have been falling. According to Agence France-Presse data reproduced in the reference news on July 6th, 2006, the oil prices traded in new york market in June 1990 USD 40.40, March 1994 USD 14.08, 1998+02 USD. It rose to $37.78 in March 2003, but it still did not return to the price level of 1990 10. Considering the price increase in the United States in the1990s, the real price of international oil fell more seriously than that in the trading market in the whole decade of the1990s. Therefore, the rise of international oil price in 2 1 century is largely due to the recovery rebound after a large number of speculators participated in the bargain-hunting after the oil price fell about 10 years.

In addition, crude oil is denominated in dollars. Judging from the exchange rate relationship, in recent years, the dollar has depreciated by more than 40% against the euro and by about 20% against the yen. In the case of the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the price of oil denominated in US dollars remains unchanged, which actually means that oil prices in Europe and Japan can buy oil with less money than before. For example, in Europe, only the depreciation of the US dollar against the euro by more than 40% means that oil prices have fallen a lot in Europe. In terms of import and export relations, this means that oil exporting countries must import the same amount of certain commodities from Europe and exchange much more oil than a few years ago. Therefore, in order to make up for the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar, oil prices will definitely rise to "correct the deviation". Therefore, the depreciation of the dollar is also an important reason for the price increase of oil. We know from the depreciation (or appreciation) of the US dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen against the US dollar that for EU countries and Japan, the impact of the oil price increase during this period is less than that for the United States due to the appreciation of their currencies against the US dollar. In other words, the increase in oil prices in euros in the European Union is far less than that in dollars.

The situation in Europe and Japan also reminds us of the impact of the exchange rate relationship between RMB and USD on China. Specifically, if China's RMB appreciates against the US dollar like European and Japanese currencies, what impact will the rise in oil prices have on China?

At present, the RMB is basically pegged to the US dollar (it only appreciated by about 3% in 2006), so the oil price increase has a great impact on China. The multiple of price increase calculated in RMB is the same as that calculated in USD (take 2006 as an example with the latest oil import data, ignoring the appreciation of around 3% in 2006).

For example, the average price of crude oil in 2006 was $60 per barrel, which was $33 higher than that in 2003, that is, it was about 1.2 times higher. In 2006, China imported 654.38+45 million tons of crude oil. For the convenience of calculation, the crude oil imported by China in 2003 was also set at 654.38+45 million tons. A rise of $33 per barrel means a rise of about $247 per ton of crude oil. In this way, importing crude oil in 2006 will cost more than 65 billion US dollars, or about 533 billion yuan (calculated by converting 1 US dollar into 8.2 yuan RMB). Compared with 2003, it will cost about $35.8 billion more, and RMB will exceed 280 billion.

If China doubled its RMB appreciation before 2006 and exchanged 1 USD for 0 yuan RMB 4.65438+, it would still need to import more than $65 billion in 2006, an increase of about $35.8 billion over 2003. However, since the appreciation of RMB is twice that of 2003, only RMB 266.5 billion is needed, which is only about 654.38+0 billion more than that of 2003, instead of 280 billion more than the current exchange rate. Therefore, if the RMB appreciates twice against the US dollar, in theory, the price of gasoline and diesel per liter will be reduced by half. Of course, considering that China's crude oil has not been fully imported, whether the refined crude oil is gasoline or diesel oil may be less than half, but it will definitely be much cheaper than it is now. Therefore, the change of RMB exchange rate will also affect the sales price of China's petroleum products.

I remember that during the planned economy period more than 20 years ago, the exchange rate determined by China was 1 USD for 2.4 yuan RMB (once even $65,438+USD for 1.9 yuan RMB), and then China devalued the RMB to 1 USD for 8.2 yuan RMB. This has greatly increased the amount of RMB paid by China for importing oil and iron ore. Or in other words, in exchange for the same amount of imported goods such as oil and iron ore, the export goods such as clothing and hats denominated in RMB need to increase substantially. On the other hand, if the RMB appreciates sharply against the US dollar, China only needs to export fewer commodities, and it will get the same amount of imported commodities such as oil and iron ore.

According to the estimation of many international organizations, the current 1 USD is only a little more than 2 yuan's RMB (which is roughly equivalent to the exchange rate determined during China's planned economy period). At present, China is set at $65,438 +0, which is equivalent to more RMB than 7.5 yuan. Of course, China sets the exchange rate in this way in order to make exports cheaper and more competitive in the international market, thus increasing exports. However, this result also has many disadvantages: it is very expensive to calculate imported raw materials and other products in RMB (because China enterprises and people have to exchange RMB for dollars or buy them in RMB); Because China's export products are too cheap, the international community frequently implements anti-dumping against me, requiring us to pay anti-dumping duties, resulting in additional economic losses; Our export products are too cheap in dollars and euros, which objectively makes it difficult for workers in labor-intensive industries in many countries to find jobs (this is also an important reason why China's shoe warehouses and shops in Spain were attacked and burned); China's exports to western countries have greatly increased, and it has a large surplus with the United States and Europe, which leads to China's serious dependence on western markets. The United States and Europe (especially the United States) have also seen this. They ask China to pay a diplomatic price and cooperate with them in diplomacy (for example, on the DPRK nuclear issue, North Korean missiles, Iran and other issues), but we can only cooperate with them. In this regard, we often refer to this forced submission as "keeping a low profile".

Of course, RMB appreciation also has disadvantages. For example, the appreciation of the renminbi will make the export commodities more expensive in dollars, and the price competitiveness in the international market will not be so great. In addition, the appreciation of RMB will devalue China's huge foreign exchange reserves (calculated in RMB). The sharp appreciation of RMB will greatly devalue China's huge foreign exchange reserves, which is an important reason why it is difficult for China to decide the appreciation of RMB. This is an intractable sequela caused by our previous wrong policy of RMB depreciation against the US dollar.