What do you think of Huawei’s upgrade of Hongmeng system in April 2021?

Huawei is progressing very quickly this time, even too fast (I had expected to start internal testing in April or June, and public testing in June or September). . . This is natural. Huawei's chip manufacturing was banned in June last year, that is, 8 months ago. In theory, even though the user base of Huawei (including the former Honor) mobile phones is still very large, at best, after 16 months, according to According to statistics, 52% of users may replace Huawei mobile phones that are at least 2 years old. In other words, Huawei will lose half of its end users in 16 months, and may not even have 30% in another year. If Hongmeng wants to win over Google, the basis for its popularity is the huge number of Huawei users. But if users change their phones, the base will be gone. Therefore, the sooner Huawei must popularize Hongmeng, the better. The sooner it is popularized, the more feedback can be obtained. Today's Android users upgrade to Hongmeng through a very large-scale public beta. Only when the huge base of Huawei mobile terminal users have experienced Hongmeng can they have confidence in Hongmeng, and at the same time can it promote the use of third-party manufacturers. The new phone is equipped with Hongmeng system. . . . . It is not impossible for Hongmeng to fail. After all, more than one mobile phone system has died in the past 10 years. But it is too fanciful for some people to try to force Hongmeng to die just by relying on public opinion. You must know that even junk products like Samsung's TIZEN have been struggling in the Indian market for a while.

Enterprise competition is war, so shopping malls are like battlefields, so it is okay to use public opinion warfare as a war, no matter which side of the war.

So no matter whether Hongmeng is a shell or not, in the end, it still has to rely on its technical capabilities. No matter how Hongmeng is slandered now, if it cannot realize the functions of Hongmeng, it will not prevent users from buying Hongmeng mobile phones; similarly, if it can be used Android implements the functions of Hongmeng, which means that Hongmeng is nothing more than that. Just like Alibaba's YUNOS, it just replaces a middle layer. Netizens are not fools, and users are not fools. A yunOS with a real Android shell without any features cannot attract users, and users do not need a copycat version of Android, so failure is inevitable. . If Hongmeng is also a similar Android shell, then failure will be inevitable. There is no need for some people on the Internet to repeatedly emphasize that Hongmeng is an Android shell;

But when Hongmeng is released in April, Huawei will face two problems :

1. Can Hongmeng achieve the performance and stability advertised? It is not said that it can instantly kill all systems, but at least the stability should not be worse than Android, and it must even reach IOS. After all, this is what Huawei’s propaganda says; of course, there should not be big bugs, this is a rigid rule;

2. In addition to its own performance. . . Can Hongmeng come up with the highlights of the new era of IoT systems that users can experience immediately? In addition to stable performance, Hongmeng's IoT system features were initially promoted by Huawei. So what are the highlights of Hongmeng that users can intuitively understand and have to use? And it is a function that only Hongmeng can embody, at least Android cannot achieve it no matter how it is improved.

I think these two points are the key factors for whether Hongmeng is accepted by users. The former is to make users realize that "Hongmeng has reached the same level as current Android and IOS" which can enhance the most basic confidence, while the latter is This allows the anti-Hongmeng faction to find excuses to oppose Huawei through crooked means (such as continuing to talk about 251), and they can no longer use Android shells to slander Hongmeng.

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I saw the news about ZTE mobile phones yesterday. . . Haven’t seen it for N months. . . . Then I saw the news about Meizu last month (although it didn't involve mobile phones), but I haven't seen it in months. It seems that Lenovo has also made a mistake. . . Therefore, as an already OTHER mobile phone company, if ZTE, Lenovo and Meizu continue to play Android, it will be difficult to defeat OVM. If you don’t give up on the mobile phone market and want to seize OVM, Hongmeng might be the way to go. . . On the contrary, it is the OVM itself that is in trouble;

Huawei will definitely adapt all past models to Hongmeng, even the Kirin 710A model. I personally think so (after reading the reply, I will add : Kirin 710A is the first domestic 14nm chip mass-produced by SMIC. I think it makes sense to go to Hongmeng. In theory, the more basic users of Hongmeng, the better). . .

Unless there are already third-party mobile phone companies that are ready to sell a large number of new mobile phones with Hongmeng pre-installed (except for Honor, which is the OTHER mentioned above), otherwise, there is no better way to expand the user base (to experience it) than to adapt Hongmeng to old models. There's a solution. But in any case, increasing the number of old Huawei mobile phone users using Hongmeng as much as possible will be more conducive to the popularity of Hongmeng. After all, upgrading Huawei's old phones to Hongmeng is equivalent to giving old users a free trial test.

In addition to the above, I personally think that the biggest difficulty in the popularization of Hongmeng is: Can manufacturers of HMS mobile phones pre-installed by Hongmeng benefit from it? This is something I mentioned repeatedly in several posts about Hongmeng on Zhihu. . . No domestic mobile phone company dares to say "Hongmeng is open source, so I can use Hongmeng without installing HMS, and I can build my own store to match Hongmeng." . . Which company has the guts? Because domestic Android does not have GMS, can domestic Hongmeng not have HMS?

Since Hongmeng must be paired with HMS, the issue of interests must be faced. There is only one Android whiteboard in China. The revenue from all mobile phone store advertisements belongs to the mobile phone companies themselves. Now that Hongmeng is used, how to calculate this account? Huawei takes a 30% commission, of which 10% goes to mobile phone terminal companies? I think this is an issue that must be seriously considered. How does EPIC threaten steam? It’s not just about lowering the commission, but in the end it’s not really fun for both developers and players.

PS: One more thing, Hongmeng has an inherent advantage. Because Huawei is completely controllable, Hongmeng must be equipped with HMS, so there should be no such thing as Android because there is no GMS in China, and APPs in shopping malls are regulated. , restricting permissions, which leads to problems such as the need for constant awakening between apps, and there is no need to establish a unified push alliance or the like. This will greatly benefit Hongmeng’s ecology. If you add Huawei's various controls on Hongmeng, such as restricting the types and areas of advertising, theoretically, due to the lack of Google leadership and GMS problems in domestic Android, Hongmeng will not have any problems (I believe that after using foreign native products, GMS Android phones understand that they are different from domestic Android phones). It can be said that this experience alone can surpass domestic Android phones. For Huawei, the only problem is how to convince third-party mobile phone companies to use Hongmeng and how to make Concession of interests, otherwise third-party companies will buy Android for free, and there is no GMS, and the advertising revenue will be all their own, why should they use Hongmeng? I hope Huawei has a good solution. . . Those who are anti-Huawei and anti-Hongmeng are better off starting from these aspects instead of twisting Android cases all day long. Personally, I feel that the probability of success is greater.