Some people say that once the dollar depreciates, the United States will become the next Soviet Union. What do you think of this?

After the US financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the quantitative easing policy and issued a large number of US dollar bills, which greatly devalued the US dollar and enabled the US economy to recover. Now, Trump has repeatedly asked the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in order to devalue the dollar and stimulate domestic investment and exports. The depreciation of the dollar is a technical means of economic regulation. How could it lead to the disintegration of the United States? Understand the basic knowledge of politics and economy before you speak, otherwise you will only make jokes.

What will lead to the disintegration of the United States? Only a serious and lasting comprehensive economic crisis will definitely lead to the disintegration of the United States. In that case, California, Texas, Hawaii and Alaska will definitely be independent, and the central and eastern parts may also be separated.

This is too erotic.

The strength of the United States is hard to shake, and it has accumulated too many advantages, which cannot be consumed in one day or two. The United States also has strong control over the dollar and will not devalue it.

One of the reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union was that there were powerful external enemies, so once the Soviet Union fell, there was no chance to catch my breath and get up.

Now if America falls, almost the whole world is waiting for him to catch his breath and get up, and the whole world is waiting for him to point out the maze, hehe.

It is untenable to say that the United States will not decline because it is strong. The British Empire was in its heyday, but didn't it also end in its heyday and decline? Before the reform and opening up, China was a big and weak country, and no one could believe the rise of China. Hillary Clinton, then US Secretary of State, once asserted that China should be the most failed, poorest and divided country in the world in 20 years.

Twenty years later, our country is not poor and divided, but much stronger than it was 20 years ago, which the United States did not expect. Americans themselves have lost the confidence to wait for China's failure, and are afraid of China's surpassing, so today they regard China as a competitor and an enemy.

If the United States is still as powerful as it was in 2000, will it still be like this today?

President Clinton's term of office was 1993 65438+20061October 20th 5438+0 65438+1October 20th. When he left office, the United States had only $5.67 trillion in national debt.

After the epidemic, it is estimated that the national debt of the United States will reach $30 trillion, equivalent to China's GDP for two years. At present, the size of US Treasury bonds has soared to $24.5 trillion. Due to the epidemic, another $6 trillion in national debt was issued, and the total size of national debt exceeded 30 trillion, which was something planned by US President Trump.

In 20 19, the interest paid by the U.S. government on national debt was as high as 658 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to the total GDP of Turkey, which ranked 20th in the world in 1 year. If the U.S. national debt increases to 30 trillion dollars, 1 year will pay debt interest of 1 trillion dollars, which is equivalent to the total GDP of Indonesia ranked 16 in the world.

If the burden of American national debt was placed on other countries, it would have collapsed long ago. Don't say that US Treasury bonds are increasing at a rate of 20% every year. Even if it does not increase, the national debt of the United States will never be finished, unless the United States launches a world war.

At present, the real economy in the United States accounts for 18.6% of GDP, and the service industry accounts for 80.4% in the tertiary industry. The service industry is mainly affected by the epidemic, so the economic downturn in the United States is a foregone conclusion. China's economic scale surpassed that of the United States much earlier. Western economists predict that China's GDP in US dollars will surpass that of the United States before 2025.

The main reason why dollar hegemony can be maintained is that the United States stands in the position of the world's largest economy. If the position of the boss is not guaranteed, the credit of US Treasury bonds will be in crisis.

The issuance of American debt is supported by American national credit, which is the real reason why the United States is desperately restraining China.

The United States is an immigrant country, and most of these immigrants go to the United States for social welfare. If the American economy declines severely and social welfare cannot be guaranteed, emigration is a high probability.

For example, in order to win the highest wages in the world for Detroit auto workers, the American Auto Union failed to reach an agreement with Ford and other auto companies, which eventually forced Ford and other auto companies to leave Detroit and set up factories in China and other countries to manufacture cars.

Now the United States and other western developed countries can hardly produce labor-intensive daily necessities at home. In order to maximize profits, enterprises have long moved inefficient industries to East Asian countries for production, leaving only high-tech industries with high profits in their own countries. As a result, China has a large number of surplus labor, and the government can only find jobs for the people by increasing the service industry. For example, the American cultural and entertainment industry accounts for 365,438+0% of the national GDP.

In view of the impact of globalization on domestic employment, American economists put forward the "nipple plan" in the 1990s, also known as the "warm plan", that is, just like giving a nipple to a crying baby's emotional and physical satisfaction, it will divert their attention, make them stop crying and prevent things from happening again. The pacifier program can only temporarily alleviate social contradictions and cannot fundamentally solve the deep structural problems of American society.

There is a crisis of division in the United States

So once the dollar depreciates, it is foreseeable that American society will split!

Personally, I don't think this assumption holds water. The background of the United States and the former Soviet Union is different, and the final conclusion will be very different. In fact, this problem is more complicated. This is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue. Let me talk about my views from the perspective of economics:

First, the international status of the US dollar and the ruble is different:

The US dollar is the international reserve currency and the most important trade settlement currency, while the Soviet ruble currency is mainly used in the country and neighboring countries. Once the ruble depreciates sharply, the local economy of the Soviet Union will be the hardest hit, and the sharp depreciation of the US dollar as a trade settlement currency will damage the foreign exchange reserves of various countries.

Second, the dollar is supported by strong economic strength and military strength:

Before the Soviet Union dissolved the system, the military strength of the United States and the Soviet Union was equal, but the economic strength of the two countries was very obvious. Moreover, the former Soviet Union paid attention to the development of heavy industry, the economic structure was extremely unreasonable, and the people's living standards were extremely low. Moreover, the ruble depreciated sharply at that time. In order to cope with the crisis, the former Soviet Union adopted the monetary policy of exchanging new roubles for old roubles, but this unequal currency exchange was a kind of "wool" in disguise, which aggravated social contradictions and eventually collapsed.

Third, the economic systems of the United States and the Soviet Union are different:

The United States implements a market economy, and the market has a strong ability to self-adjust economic contradictions, while the former Soviet Union implements a planned economy. When there is an economic crisis, the policy response will lag behind.

The depreciation of the dollar can stimulate the growth of American exports, while the former Soviet Union, as a planned economy, was closed to the outside world. A sharp devaluation of the currency will hurt your economy!

The above are personal opinions, please leave a message to discuss ~

Thank you for inviting me!

In today's world economic trends, the depreciation of the US dollar will never be caused by the monetary easing policy adopted several years ago to stimulate economic recovery and growth in response to the US financial turmoil, but by the failure of the Federal Reserve to implement the monetary tightening policy to prevent inflation caused by dollarization of most major economies in the world. The consequences of this devaluation are devastating, and the result will be many times more tragic than the disintegration of the former Soviet Union!

Due to the export of Iranian oil and Russian oil, which accounted for about 50% of the world's total more than two years ago, the monopoly position of GCC crude oil export based on the hegemony of petrodollars collapsed, and the necessity of dollars in the field of world circulation and reserves was greatly reduced. Under the background of Trump administration's priority to launch a trade war with the world and the United States, the world's major economies are moving towards dollarization in international trade and currency reserves. In the past, more than 70 trillion dollars of worthless currency that flowed to the world through the WTl market, the international commodity consumption of American consumers and the international business of American financial industry will quickly flow back to the American financial and commodity markets, causing super-scale inflation in the American market. In order to curb this trend and prevent the vicious depreciation of the dollar, the Federal Reserve is now preparing to raise interest rates for the third time to shrink its balance sheet and implement a stricter monetary tightening policy.

If under this policy of the United States, the dollar depreciates obviously outside the policy, it can only prove that the Fed's regulatory policy has failed under the constraints of American people's livelihood factors. This failure will bring inflation explosion caused by 70 trillion worthless dollars, unlimited depreciation of the dollar, collapse of the monetary system, financial crisis and debt crisis, which will make the American economy completely collapse, the country go bankrupt, the country fall apart, the internal debt burden and interest disputes, making it a powerful US military position, and it is unclear who to fight for, which will make the chaos in the United States unimaginable.

Clearing up the countries and nations that have been bullied by American aggression, clearing up the true and false terrorists who have been defined by the double standard of American hegemony and abused by them, and clearing up the internal and external debts accumulated over the years of arrogance and extravagance will make the United States fall into a state of perdition, which is unparalleled in Russia after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Therefore, the depreciation of the dollar makes the outcome of the United States far more tragic than the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

First of all, we can see that the reason why America can dominate the world is nothing more than the following advantages.

First, recruit talents from all over the world. Second, dollar hegemony. Third, military power.

The core of the three should be the dollar, and the other two can be said to be born for their protection. So once the dollar depreciates, the United States will naturally decline.

If the dollar has no advantage, talents will be lost and there will be no financial resources to fight. The so-called younger brother will leave America. Because there is no perfect production chain, national life will be in trouble, Americans with many ideas will have new ideas, and people with different political views will have separation problems during this period. It is conceivable that the next Soviet Union will be born.

In recent years, the United States has become less and less like a world leader and more like an old peasant woman, calculating her own land every day. My first thought is to occupy the main body of foreign relations, * * * and rich * * *, which is not what he wants. He hopes that others are not as good as him, and this narrow racial measurement may really be the root of losing the credibility of the dollar and the last straw to overwhelm the United States. What did you say?/Sorry?

Historically, the dollar index has been depreciating. For example, in the Plaza Accord of 1985, the five countries jointly intervened in the exchange rate market, inducing the depreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen Deutsche Mark. Depreciation of 30% in three years. Continue to depreciate for ten years, remember that the yen has appreciated by 60% to 70%. Japan is the biggest loser, followed by Germany, but not the United States. This is the depreciation of the dollar led by the United States. In the future, the United States may also achieve a soft landing of the dollar under controllable circumstances. Moreover, the United States and the Soviet Union are fundamentally different, with the strongest scientific and technological strength, the strongest R&D and innovation ability, and none of the ten Soviet Union can compare with one United States. In the future, if the dollar withdraws from the core currency status, it will remain the most important international currency. The dollar may thus enter a long-term orderly and controllable depreciation cycle, with the cumulative depreciation rate exceeding 40% or even more. However, the competitiveness of American manufacturing industry will also improve, expand exports and reverse the trade deficit.

The dollar is constantly depreciating, and countries that hold dollars or US debt have to follow suit. Otherwise, the blood will be lost! Therefore, the depreciation of the dollar not only has no influence on the national strength of the United States, but also is a sheep shed for countries that hold dollars and American debts. That is, using the hegemonic position of the dollar to implement financial hegemony. Thereby continuously enhancing the national strength of the United States. In the Soviet Union, its ruble is not a hard currency, so not many countries hold it, and its holdings are very limited. Therefore, the devaluation of the currency cannot be maintained by shearing wool, and only the domestic people pay the bill. The result is inflation and soaring prices. People live in poverty! Leading to a vicious circle of society. When the national strength declines, it will naturally collapse!

Will America be the next Soviet Union? The answer is, it is possible! Will the dollar depreciate? I will! But is there a necessary relationship between them? Not necessarily!

Paying in dollars is an American credit card.

Let's focus on America. Why can America dominate the world? This system was established after World War II. American hegemony is embodied in many aspects, such as democratic system, universal values, economic strength, scientific and technological innovation ability, strong military strength and cultural influence represented by Hollywood. And the reliance behind all this is a strong financial system.

After World War II, 82% of the world's gold reserves were concentrated in the hands of Americans. Throughout World War II, the United States played the dual role of the world's factory and lender of last resort, producing millions of planes, millions of cars, millions of tanks and100000 warships. Only after the war, the number of demobilized people was as high as10 million.

What is another milestone? And 20 years later, the United States found that gold tripped Americans' legs, so the gold dollar was directly decoupled, which is also the reason why the first financial empire was established in history!

So Americans export dollars to the world as a special commodity. The dollar is both a currency and a commodity. Since then, American GDP has grown rapidly. In just 20 years from 1990 to 2008, the GDP of the United States has exceeded 14 trillion, which is twice that of 1990.

Since then, the popular currency of international trade settlement has been paid in dollars, including oil, food, weapons and other necessities of sovereign countries. To measure a country's financial strength, foreign exchange reserves have also begun to be used as one of the reference conditions.

So up to now, the core logic of the dollar has become to pay in dollars. Therefore, the sharp depreciation of the dollar can cause a world financial crisis, impact the global financial system, and then the economy collapses, which is usually called the financial crisis. So this is the impact of the sharp depreciation of the dollar on the United States.

Of course, the collapse of a political power is not caused by a single reason, but by system, military and economy, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union is inevitable.

However, if something else happens-the dollar payment system crashes. The situation will be completely changed, and the world will no longer be a super-strong, that is, the United States will be the only one, and the European Union, emerging powers, Japan, Russia and so on will all be strong.

If you want to wear a crown, you must bear its weight.

From the moment when the US dollar reached the top as a global settlement currency, it acquiesced in some obligations, although it was not voluntary.

1. Monetary policy is based on the global situation, not just the domestic economy.

Because it is an international currency, the monetary policy designated by the Federal Reserve must follow the global economic logic, not just refer to the domestic economy. This is one of the reasons why the Fed has always emphasized independence rather than subordination to the US government. Because once it is subordinate to the US government, the Fed's policy will inevitably become selfish at the expense of others, similar to "US priority"-which is unacceptable to all countries in the world. In addition, the Federal Reserve has always been called a "private bank", which has the same meaning. After all, businessmen have no borders.

2. High liquidity.

The reason why the US dollar can become a global settlement currency is also closely related to its lax supervision. The characteristics of high liquidity enable anyone to circulate without worrying about regulatory issues. Unfortunately, this point has also been broken recently.

3. Stability

The dollar has become a settlement currency, and its stability is deeply rooted in human nature. As the largest safe haven currency in the world, its stability is directly compared with gold. However, Trump has been constantly interfering with this function recently.

Then the subject's question: once the dollar depreciates, will the United States become the next Soviet Union?

Its core should be: the United States depreciates wildly, loses its settlement status, and may become the next Soviet Union.

As mentioned above, all implicit obligations are settled in US dollars, so obligations and rights are equivalent. What rights does the US dollar enjoy as a settlement currency?

1, international currency issuance right

Since the US dollar is the international settlement currency, the Federal Reserve certainly issues the international settlement currency. We should know that although central banks have the right to issue currency, most of their currencies can only be used at home, so these currencies can only be a quasi-currency internationally. In this context, if the Fed is loose, it will release liquidity to the world; If it is tightened, it is to tighten the liquidity to the world. This shows that the central banks of other countries are not worth mentioning at all. In addition, the United States only needs to issue bonds in its own currency without any foreign exchange risk. At the same time, there are multiples in the global settlement system, and its credit is magnified by geometric figures, and the financing amount and cost are far lower than those in other countries.

2. Liquidation right

All central banks have the right to liquidate their own currencies, but since the US dollar is a global currency. Then this gives the Fed the right to clear global trade, and the dollar-based SWIFT clearing system can easily crack down on and monitor any potential opponent.

3, commodity pricing power

As the US dollar is the settlement currency, the prices of commodities are all measured in US dollars. Therefore, the Fed can control the changing trend of various material prices by adjusting the dollar policy, which is equivalent to controlling the pricing power of bulk commodities.

What happens when you lose your residency status?

The ancients said: from frugality to luxury, from luxury to frugality.

Once the dollar loses its settlement status, all the above three rights will be lost.

1, the dollar has been unable to control the global economy, and the dominant position of the United States in global trade has lost. The credit level is rapidly declining, and the United States is facing the risk of liquidation. It is difficult to borrow money easily, and the whole country will tighten its belt.

2. The United States lost the right to supervise world trade, which was equivalent to dismissing an imperial envoy.

3, unable to control commodity prices, inflation can not be exported, only internal fermentation. Domestic prices are soaring and people are living in poverty.

Faced with such a situation, will the United States become the next Soviet Union? This should be that different people have different opinions, but I believe that after reading this, I should have an answer in my heart.