Outlook of Shanghai Auto Show: Dead wood meets spring, and all roads lead to the same goal.

"Falling red is not heartless, but turning into spring mud is more protective of flowers."

The biennial Shanghai Auto Show arrives as scheduled, which is a big platform for car companies to show their products and technologies. For the automobile market, this is an exciting event and a turning point in the future development of the automobile market and automobile enterprises.

After all, in the past three years, although Beijing Auto Show, Guangzhou Auto Show, Shanghai Auto Show, Chengdu Auto Show, etc. It has also been held in China. Due to the mask problem, the enthusiasm of participating car companies, media and audiences is not high.

Especially in 2022, the Beijing Auto Show was postponed and finally cancelled; When I arrived at the Chengdu Auto Show, I was forced to stop in a few days. The cancelled Guangzhou Auto Show was held in a hurry, which undoubtedly cast a layer of frost on the domestic auto market.

In this context, without the influence of the mask problem, the Shanghai Auto Show held as scheduled this year is even more eye-catching, pushing the enthusiasm of the market, car companies, media and audience to an unprecedented height in the past three years.

For the market and car companies, this Guangzhou Auto Show is like a watershed, breaking the "bad luck" of the past, welcoming a better tomorrow and starting again.

Falling red

Why do you say that?

After entering 2023, Tesla took the lead in setting off a wave of price reduction in the domestic market, and new domestic forces such as China and Tucki increased their chips following the BYD reform that officially announced the price reduction two years ago, thus realizing "the same price for oil and electricity".

Subsequently, the wave of price reduction spread to the traditional fuel vehicle market, and the Hubei government joined hands with Dongfeng to set off an unprecedented "price reduction frenzy" in the China market, with such jokes as "200,000 C6 is old-fashioned and 6,543.8+0.2 million C6 is mature and steady".

After that, more than 30 brands and dozens of provinces and cities participated and "added chips", and some marketing routines such as "buy one get one free", preferential/kloc-bicycle subsidies of more than 0/00000 yuan appeared. The former's "buy one get one free" preferential vehicles followed closely, and the latter's bicycle subsidy of 10 million yuan was obtained by participating in the lucky draw. This kind of hunger marketing and price reduction method with implicit terms allows consumers to enter the store with hope and then leave the store with "civilized greetings".

It is this eye-catching marketing method that makes the "price reduction tide" in the market have no heat, and at the same time makes consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars disappear.

Of course, there is no lack of price reduction and promotion in the development of the automobile market. As early as 20 17, the government introduced incentives such as preferential purchase tax and subsidies for new energy vehicles. Although it has promoted the sales of the whole automobile industry to a certain extent, it has overdrawn the demand of consumers for automobiles to a certain extent, that is, it has overdrawn the demand for future automobiles.

Similarly, this year's price war is the same. Whether it is because the preferential purchase tax policy for fuel vehicles expired at the end of last year or the national B emission policy was fully implemented in July this year, they are actually using price cuts to overdraw the sales of the future automobile market, and the essence is to clean up the six old models of the country.

However, this "price war" is different from previous years. The influence of joint-venture fuel vehicles is higher than that of independent new energy vehicles, and the oppression of weak brands is greater than that of head brands.

The data shows that as early as 202165438+February, the inventory of joint venture brands has surpassed that of independent brands. At the same time, according to Thinkercar statistics, the discounts of some joint venture car companies have been at a high level for half a year in a row, and the A-class and B-class cars in the US three days ago have a large discount range. For example, the preferential margin of traditional car companies such as SAIC-GM and Dongfeng Honda has exceeded 15%. Among luxury brands, Cadillac and Jaguar Land Rover also enjoy preferential margins of more than 15%.

In contrast, the preferential margin of independent brands in recent years is obviously lower than that of joint venture brands, which also proves that head brands such as BYD, Great Wall, Chang 'an, Geely and some new power brands occupy a dominant position in the development of the domestic market.

In this context, at the Shanghai Auto Show on April 18, you will find that many old faces have disappeared, such as traditional car companies such as Mitsubishi, finidi, Acura and Jeep, and new forces such as Weimar, Horizon and Aichi will be replaced by some new faces, such as Xiaomi, Baidu and Huawei.

Generally speaking, the "price war" at the beginning of this year was a great benefit to consumers, but it was a tragic knockout for car companies. Moreover, the "price war" will not end because of the Shanghai Auto Show. Friends with money to buy can wait.

Melting spring mud

As mentioned above, this "price war" is dominated by joint-venture brand fuel vehicles, supplemented by independent brand new energy brands, which directly illustrates a phenomenon: independent brands are gradually leading the trend of domestic vehicles.

(Image from: China Automobile Industry Association)

The data shows that in 20 19, the market share of independent brands is less than 40%, and most of them are low-end models, and most of them can only take the volume and make no money. But by 2022, the market share of independent brands has reached 49.9%, especially in the new energy vehicle market, and the market share of independent brands has reached 70%-80%.

In the same period, the sales volume of joint venture brand fuel vehicles decreased by 6% year-on-year; Even if a "price war" started in the first quarter of this year, the sales of joint-venture brand fuel vehicles still fell sharply, with a drop of more than 30%.

In other words, the market share of traditional car companies such as Mitsubishi, finidi, Acura and Jeep has been occupied by independent brands, but the joint venture brands have not benefited from it.

At the same time, according to third-party data, the cumulative insurance coverage rate of BYD brand has reached 357,278 this year, which has exceeded the sum of FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen and officially became the first brand in China.

This also means that joint-venture brands have gradually lost their dominance in China, and independent brands have gradually become the "steering wheel" of the domestic automobile market. At the same time, they are releasing the signal that "the joint venture is dead and independent", which makes the head independent brands such as Great Wall, Chang 'an and Geely excited, and they want to pursue it, crush the joint venture brands and win more market share.

Therefore, the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year will be a "catalyst". Joint venture brands will seek changes after being overtaken, and independent brands will continue to increase their chips and seek self-breakthrough.

Flowers bloom

By the way, Brother Bing forgot to tell you that the theme of this year's Shanghai Auto Show is "Embracing the New Era of Automobile Industry". It goes without saying that this auto show will be a stage for new energy vehicles, while fuel vehicles can only stand by silently.

I don't know if you have noticed that, in addition to independent brands, the preheating theme of overseas brands in the official WeChat account is to embrace electrification, release powerful new energy technologies, present brand-new products, and show their strength in transformation.

Mercedes-Benz EQS pure electric SUV from Maibakh will make its debut at the Shanghai Auto Show, while Maibakh's S 580 e plug-in hybrid car and Maibakh's S-class Haute Voiture will also be on the market. BMW will bring BMW XM Label Red to complete the world premiere.

Volkswagen's first pure electric B-class car ID.7 will also be officially unveiled at the Shanghai Auto Show. In the future, this model will be introduced by FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen. The second model under the Honda e:N brand will also usher in the world premiere. At the same time, the new 1 1 generation Accord equipped with e:PHEV hybrid technology is expected to announce the price before.

Naturally, Toyota will not lag behind other overseas brands. It will not only bring two models of Toyota bZ series, but also show a new generation of automobile engine system newly developed by China and a new generation of intelligent cockpit with a new concept.

Of course, independent brands have also brought many heavy models, such as Geely's Galaxy series, BYD Wang Chao's upcoming brand-new model-Song L, Star Road's high-end series-Star Age, Xpeng's brand-new model G6 and so on.

According to media statistics, more than 40 new cars will be unveiled or listed. At the same time, there will be future product planning and new technology release of various car companies. Who can shine on the stage of Shanghai Auto Show? Let's wait and see!

It can be said that this year's Shanghai Auto Show is somewhat different. Although all car companies are very competitive, this year seems to be a new beginning for them. At the same time, they all have a goal, that is, actively embrace electrification, get back the market share lost in the past three years, or win more market share, which will gradually intensify the competition in the new energy market.

Shanghai Auto Show is an opportunity for all auto companies, hoping to attract consumers' attention while showing their brand-new products and technologies, so as to win the initiative.

Edit abstract

It is most appropriate to describe the current auto market with "a long drought meets rain". After three years of turmoil and cold winter, automobile enterprises need a "spring rain" to moisten and grow new leaves of hope.

Shanghai Auto Show is the first "spring rain" in the automobile market, which makes all automobile enterprises get rid of the "bad luck" of the past, actively embrace electrification and usher in a new tomorrow. In the future, the achievements of all automobile companies in the new energy automobile market depend on their own abilities!

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