Have you ever heard of Murphy’s Law?

Murphy's Law is a psychological effect proposed by Edward A. Murphy, also known as Murphy's Law and Murphy's Theorem.

The original text is: If there are two or more ways to do something, and one of the choices will lead to disaster, someone will make this choice. The bottom line is: if there is a chance that things will go bad, no matter how small the possibility, it will happen.

"Murphy's Law", "Parkinson's Law" and "Peter's Principle" are collectively known as the three major discoveries of Western culture in the twentieth century. The source of the law

In 1949, an Air Force captain engineer named Edward Murphy casually joked to one of his unlucky colleagues: "If something is likely to be If you do something bad, it will be even worse if you let him do it."

This is an innocent joke that does not have a deep meaning at first, it just expresses the helplessness brought by bad luck. Maybe it’s because there are too many unlucky people in this world, or maybe it’s because people always make mistakes of one kind or another. This sentence spread quickly, and finally it was interpreted as: If bad things are possible, no matter how small the possibility is. , it will always happen and cause the greatest possible loss.

Generation conditions

In mathematical statistics, there is an important statistical rule: assuming that the probability of an unexpected event occurring in an experiment (activity) is p (p>0), Then the probability that at least one occurrence occurs in n experiments (activities) is P=1-(1-p)^n. It can be seen that no matter how small the probability p is (that is, a small probability event), when n becomes larger and larger, P becomes closer and closer to 1.

This conclusion was applied to safety management by Edward Murphy. He pointed out: When doing anything, if there is an objectively wrong approach, or there is a possibility of some kind of accident. , no matter how small the possibility is, when doing this thing repeatedly, an accident will always happen at some point. In other words, as long as the possibility of an accident exists, no matter how small the possibility is, the accident will happen sooner or later. Specific laws

Murphy's Law has four main contents:

1. Nothing is as simple as it seems on the surface;

2. , everything will take longer than you expect;

3. Things that can go wrong will always go wrong;

4. If you are worried about a certain situation happening, then it will be more It could happen.

The basic content of "Murphy's Law" is that "anything that can go wrong has a high probability of going wrong." It means that as long as any event has a probability greater than zero, it cannot be assumed that it will not go wrong. will happen.

Example analysis

Accident case

On December 6, 2013, in the Ningbo-Zhoushan port area, the visibility was only 0.5~0.6 nautical miles, 9:25 Panamax Bulk carrier "J" (pilot on board) is fully loaded with cargo and sails through Xialan Mountain. In order to adapt to the poor visibility environment and conditions at that time, the main engine of the "J" ship used SLOW AHEAD to sail. Due to the high tide and high water, it sailed downstream. The speed was about 9 knots and the heading was 323 degrees. The pilot observed it using radar plotting and AIS. The dynamics of the ship "H" exporting from the north of the slip net and the ship "X" coming from the Fodu waterway (pilot on board, exiting Xiazhimen, 168 meters in length, 25 meters in width, 9.2 meters in the front and rear drafts), and discovered The "H" ship was located too close to the entrance channel, so it took the initiative to contact the "H" ship via VHF and confirm the red light meeting with it. Then I heard the traffic control center calling the "H" ship on the high frequency, asking it to adjust its course to the right and take the Xiazhimen exit channel. At the same time, it asked the "X" ship to follow the "H" ship to the exit. The "X" ship answered on the high frequency and agreed.

9:30 In order to keep a greater safe distance from the "H" and "X" wheels, the "J" wheel turned to 330 degrees in advance. 9:32 During the left-to-left intersection between ship "J" and ship "H", ship "X" was seen at about 40 degrees relative to the left bow of ship "J", a distance of about 0.4 nautical miles, and its bow was facing "J" "X" ship's bow, and observed that the "X" ship's right turn trend was not obvious. The pilot judged that a very dangerous situation had formed with the ship, and immediately used high frequency to contact it. At the same time, he operated the right full rudder, and the main engine was directly controlled by SLOW AHEAD. Added the car to FULL AHEAD; called the "X" wheel many times but there was no answer.

The pilot continued to pay close attention to its dynamic changes. When it was concluded that the collision was unavoidable, he urgently applied full left rudder to try to reduce the degree of collision by using tail countermovement and reducing the collision angle. 9:34 The bow of ship "X" crashed into the 7th cabin on the port side of ship "J", with an angle of about 30 degrees. At that time, the ship was located in the east-north entrance channel of Shangliuwangzhong, which was approximately at 29°50.23N and 122°12.74E.

Law Analysis

The Ningbo-Zhoushan port area is one of the busiest ports in the world. The ship types in the navigable waterways are complex, with a large number of ships, different sizes and speeds, and maneuverability. Problems such as uneven performance have led to increasing pilotage risks in the port, especially around the warning zone.

Although the "J" ship successfully washed up on the beach and anchored after the above-mentioned accident, and no casualties were caused, the accident still had a certain impact on port production and the pilots and crew members involved. The accident seemed accidental, but combined with "Murphy's Law" it was inevitable. The "J" ship involved in the accident sailed at a relatively safe speed on the entrance channel of the Xiazhimen Separated Navigation Channel. If each ship went its own way, the collision would not have occurred. In fact, ships sailing in this water area have been operating in this way for many years. However, this water area is near the warning area, with ships crisscrossing and dense traffic flow. Many hidden dangers exist for a long time. Once one party violates the rules (speeding, neglecting to look out, etc.), and If the other party does not have corresponding plans and precautions, accidents will inevitably occur. It can be seen that no matter how small the probability p is, when n becomes larger and larger, it is accidental that no accident occurs, and the occurrence of an accident is truly inevitable.

Law Enlightenment

“Easy to make mistakes is an inherent weakness of human beings. No matter how advanced the technology is, accidents will happen. If an accident is possible, no matter how likely it is, Small, it will always happen and cause the greatest possible loss. "According to statistics, the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port Pilot Station guided 36,858 ships in 2013, with an average of 101 ships per day, while non-piloted ships such as self-piloting. National ships, passenger ferries, fishing boats, sand transport ships, coastal transport ships and more. Such a large number of ships constitute a complex pilotage environment in the Ningbo-Zhoushan port area. If any one of the ships has sloppy work or minor violations, there may be no accident once, ten, a hundred, or a thousand times, but a thousand A major pilotage safety accident may occur in one go.

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