Only five years left for pure fuel vehicles to withdraw from the market?

In the past two years, there have been fewer and fewer such voices in China, but in comparison, whether it is the main engine factory or the intelligent storage surface, the progress of electric or electric drive in the automobile industry will be faster, but it has formed a knowledge. An interesting phenomenon is that many car companies have announced the timetable for pure fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage in advance after announcing full electrification.

Wen Hao Ott is driving? Wang shuoqi

Since the emergence of new energy sources, the news about banning the sale of fuel vehicles has never stopped, but recently the comprehensive information seems to emphasize the "comprehensive electric drive plan" rather than banning the sale of fuel vehicles. This has been clearly declared in the technical roadmap of energy-saving and new energy vehicles 2.0 released at the annual meeting of China Automotive Engineering Society not long ago (see "Comprehensive Interpretation of Automobile New Technology Roadmap and Its Six Major Problems" for details).

Such a technical roadmap seems to have formed a * * * knowledge among major automobile brands around the world, and they have given their own all-electric drive schedules.

10 June 19, Volvo announced that it would stop selling fuel vehicles in 2025, and the models sold after 2025 will be half pure electric vehicles and half hybrid vehicles.

Just this month,165438+10.5, Nissan also announced that it plans to stop selling its fuel vehicles after 2025 and shift its research and development and sales direction to pure electric and hybrid vehicles. It is reported that Nissan originally planned to electrify 50% of its sales models in 2023, and at least five pure electric vehicles will be launched in China in 2025.

The wording of "comprehensive electric drive plan" is obviously smoother than banning fuel vehicles across the board, which affirms the direction of electrification and makes the importance of hybrid vehicles rise again.

1654381On October 8th, China Municipal Government issued the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035), which stated that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles.

At present, there are still five years before 2025. During this period, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China needs to rise from about 5% to about 20%.

Xin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the policy briefing in the State Council that if the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 5% this year, it will be difficult to achieve the goal of 20% sales of new energy vehicles in the next five years, and the compound annual growth rate must reach more than 30%. He believes that to achieve the goal of 20%, we need to learn from European countries and work hard from both supply and demand.

Xin said that after comprehensive consideration, the target was finally set at 20%, but according to the current state of industrial development, it still needs the joint efforts of * * *.

If the total automobile sales in China in 20 19 are calculated as 25 million vehicles, if the sales volume remains unchanged, the proportion of new energy will reach 5 million vehicles in five years. The new energy here refers to pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen fuel cells. Of course, with the continuous growth of car sales, this number is likely to increase.

654381October 27th, during the 2020 annual meeting of China Automotive Engineering Society, Li Jun, academician of China Academy of Engineering and chairman of China Automotive Engineering Society, officially released the technology roadmap of energy-saving and new energy vehicles version 2.0.

Li Jun said: "Roadmap 2.0 will strongly support China's research on new energy vehicle planning in 2035 and science and technology planning in the 14 th Five-Year Plan."

Li Jun also said, "It is predicted that by 2035, traditional energy-powered passenger cars will be fully converted into hybrid power, and new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, accounting for more than 50% of sales." That is, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50%.

Now, after the 2.0 roadmap is officially released, there is another one: "By 2035, traditional energy-powered passenger cars will be fully converted into hybrid power."

In this regard, the outside media misread that pure fuel vehicles will be banned in 2035, but the road map 2.0 does not give a specific and detailed plan or timetable for banning fuel vehicles.

When talking with the experts who drafted this road map, Zhi Jiajun got the answer that as far as the overall market of China is concerned, the sale of fuel vehicles will not be banned, but it is possible in some cities, but it is common knowledge in the industry that pure fuel vehicles will be eliminated. Light mixing, especially 48V light mixing, will surely become the main direction of upgrading the main fuel vehicles in the future and become the market standard.

According to the latest planning of the automobile industry, according to the description in Technical Route 2.0, the future vehicles will be either new energy vehicles (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles) or energy-saving vehicles (including extended-range hybrid vehicles and light hybrid vehicles), and the fuel vehicles will be all-light hybrid vehicles.

Combining the plans of Volvo and Nissan, it seems that the market life of pure fuel vehicles will end in 2025, with only five years left?

Will this be the timetable of the whole industry?

Compared with the previous radical, why did China soften the "ban on the sale of fuel vehicles"?

At present, in the international community, many countries have been circulating a timetable to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. This is a mixed bag of fish and dragons. The research reports or motions of some political parties and even some associations were wrongly transmitted to China and misrepresented as the real timetable.

For example, Norway and the Netherlands have announced that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2025, Germany and India will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, and France will set the time as 2040.

Only Norway is true. And how can a fuel car giant like Germany ban the sale of fuel in 2030?

* The timetable for countries to ban fuel sales is widely misinformed.

However, at the planning level, it is Britain that really has this intention. Around 20 18 years ago, the British government announced that from 2040, newly-produced internal combustion engine vehicles were not allowed to be sold in China, and ultra-low emission vehicles (including hybrid and plug-in hybrid) with carbon dioxide emissions below 75g/km were still allowed to be sold.

But on February 4th this year, Reuters reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson? Johnson) announced that Britain plans to ban the sale of newly produced gasoline and diesel vehicles, including hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, by 2035. He also announced that Britain will set the goal of "net zero emission" in 2050 this year.

According to the current plan in Britain, only pure electric vehicles and hydrogen-fueled vehicles can be put on the market after the implementation of the plan in 2035.

It should be pointed out that this is still a plan and has not become the government's decision.

However, although China, Europe and the United States have a heated debate about the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, it is behind the rigid requirements of the Paris Agreement reached by major countries in the world on carbon emissions.

China is under pressure to be carbon neutral by 2060.

In this regard, Hainan Province took the lead in taking the first step to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, and issued a regulation prohibiting the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030.

It is worth noting that among the independent brand car companies, Changan Automobile and BAIC also launched their own "no-burning timetable" when the no-burning order was raging.

Changan announced on 20 17 that it would ban the sale of fuel vehicles after 2025, and BAIC also announced on 20 17 that it would ban the sale of fuel vehicles after 2020.

However, BAIC's promise obviously failed. In 2020, in the case that the sales of new energy in BAIC were not as good as before, BAIC still launched a variety of fuel vehicles.

Today, it means a joke.

However, it is not feasible to prohibit combustion. In recent five years, the rise of the new energy vehicle market and the frequent fire incidents of electric vehicles are making light mixing an insurmountable technical choice in the transition period.

On the other hand, the popularity of Li Yizhong and the correlation between new energy sales and policies also make the substitution of new energy products for fuel vehicles quite different.

Only from the delivery volume of 65,438+00 months, Li ONE sold 3,692 vehicles in a single month, ranking first in the new energy SUV, while the ideal customer group is mostly users who are restricted to cities but need no mileage anxiety.

Shanghai's new energy market is particularly hot after Shanghai banned foreign vehicles last month. According to the forecast, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is expected to increase by 68% year-on-year.

It can be seen that the current new energy does not follow the policy orientation, and there is still a gap due to the cost and actual performance, distance and the equal status of fuel vehicles.

Wang Binggang, head of the National Expert Group on Innovative Engineering of New Energy Vehicles, said earlier that China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually stepped out of the cultivation period under the guidance of government policies, and will enter a period of rapid development. The rapid development has a great impact on the industrial chain, so it is necessary to make a good layout of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles.

At the above-mentioned the State Council policy briefing, Xin said that to push forward the 20% target, we need to learn from European countries and make efforts from both supply and demand. On the supply side, we should focus on key factors such as reducing costs and improving safety, constantly strengthen technical research, develop advanced, applicable and reliable products, and accelerate the formation of greater market competitive advantages.

On the demand side, it is also necessary to strengthen policy guidance, introduce some preferential policies to encourage the use of new energy vehicles, optimize classified traffic management measures, encourage business model innovation such as power exchange, accelerate the electrification of vehicles in public areas, increase the promotion of new energy vehicles to the countryside, and continuously improve the user experience.

So generally speaking, although the sales target of 20% new energy is lower than before, it is not low according to the actual situation, and it still needs the joint efforts of all practitioners, so it is a better choice to gradually transition from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles.

Light mixing is about to become standard.

At present, although the goal of new energy vehicles in the next five years has been determined, fuel vehicles will still be the mainstream in the foreseeable 10 year. In order to make fuel vehicles become energy-saving vehicles, 48V light mixing has become the standard for almost all families.

Different from the hybrid of Toyota and Honda, the 48V light hybrid technology only started in recent years. However, under the pressure of increasing fuel economy requirements of motor vehicles in various countries, this technology has made good progress in just a few years because of small design changes to existing models and low cost.

Most vehicles equipped with a 48V mild hybrid system usually have an extra battery and a small motor. Therefore, functions such as enhanced capacity recovery and motor-assisted engine starting can be realized.

Therefore, the light mixing system makes the engine have less load at the start, and can make the engine start-stop time longer when it is congested, with higher cost performance. At present, whether it is luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Land Rover, or domestic brands such as Geely and Great Wall, many big brands are equipped with 48V light mixing systems.

This light mixing system is not only more environmentally friendly, but also has a certain inhibitory effect on the vibration and engine jitter during starting.

Of course, what is more important is the cost, and the impact on the selling price is almost negligible.

The overall development trend of 48V mixed light technology has been relatively clear, and high-end luxury brands have gradually become popular. It's only a matter of time before top-down implementation. Energy saving and emission reduction is the general direction, and the era of 48V mixed light is coming. I believe that the team of young hybrid cars will multiply in the future.

Therefore, on the whole, the internal combustion engine will not disappear, but the era when the internal combustion engine exists alone is about to pass, and the direction of new energy development has not changed from the policy point of view, but the products of new energy still need continuous support and development, and for a long time to come, hybrid technology including plug-in, oil-electric type, extended range and light hybrid type will become the main technical route of competition in various markets.

China's pure electric road map was once the most radical industrial road map in the world. Since 20 14 Tesla entered China, the new movement of making cars promoted by the capital market has activated the pure electric vehicle industry in China. In the past six years, stories, legends and farce have made electric vehicles accepted by consumers, but its problems have also made decision makers reduce the industrial route policy of the Great Leap Forward and become rational and pragmatic.

In this process, the era between internal combustion engine and motor is coming quietly, and it will have strong vitality.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.