What impact will the bank's collective restriction on the fast payment transfer amount have on Yu 'ebao and Licaitong?

The influence of "collective restraint" in banking industry;

The banking industry has indeed been ridiculed by many people: Yu 'ebao seems to have moved the bank's "cake". However, regardless of the data sheet, this is actually hooliganism.

According to the figures in the third quarter of last year, the balance of RMB deposits in China's financial institutions has exceeded 100 trillion, of which personal deposits are close to 50 trillion (please check Baidu and Google). With the substantial support of Yu 'ebao products, the total amount of money funds should now reach 1 trillion (including Yu 'ebao 400 billion). In other words, Yu 'ebao only accounts for 0.5% of the deposit balance. Therefore, the cake that Yu 'ebao can share is actually pitifully small.

However, from the perspective of new deposits, new RMB deposits in June and February this year decreased by 840 billion compared with the same period last year. During this period, the increase of Yu 'ebao is about 250 billion-in short, the emergence of Yu 'ebao has led to a 30% decrease in deposit funds. This is the "savings move" in the news.

The relocation of deposits will indeed lead to a decline in the profits of the banking industry. However, the reduced 250 billion will actually become the fresh blood of the money fund, which will flow back to the banking system to supplement the lack of liquidity of banks. In other words, the loss of the bank is only about 5%-6% of the annualized interest of this 250 billion yuan-for a society with liquidity shortage, the income of bank loans will be significantly higher than this figure. Banks don't "lose money", but "earn less".

However, the balance treasure with an inflow of 250 billion yuan is a new product, which has the risk of a run: in the past, the communication between depositors and banks was relatively simple and was less affected by market sentiment fluctuations. However, there are many users of Yu 'ebao products. Whether it is investment agreement deposits or other financial products, users' understanding of the products is quite limited. Once in operation, this pressure will be immediately fed back to the banking system: banks have to bear the liquidity risk that is magnified several times if they don't make money, which is obviously not worth the candle.

Therefore, although banks have not restricted the purchase of Yu 'ebao products, they have begun to set obstacles for the inflow of funds into these products, which is also a helpless move.

On the other hand, some commercial banks are also ready to sell their own money fund products. This is actually ridiculed by internet people who "despise everything" and say that they are "too late". The liquidity and risk tolerance of the money funds of commercial banks with huge cash reserves and deposit insurance will be significantly better than that of Yu 'ebao-unfortunately, marketing and marketing are their weaknesses.