Prediction: Eight Social Scenes in 2025

20 15 years, you may still be in middle age. At present, there are about 2.8 million old people in Taiwan Province Province, including your elders. You still have physical strength, vitality and working ability. Maybe you have the ability to take care of your elders for life with some capital and social resources left by them. But soon, after 20 17, the elderly population in Taiwan Province Province began to surpass the newborns.

After 2025, you gradually approached or entered the so-called "elderly people over 65", turned around and turned around, and no one came. In the relay races of past generations, you ran forward with the sticks of your predecessors, but when you wanted to hand in the sticks, the next stick fell far behind. At that time, the "elders" of Taiwan Province society already included yourself, and the number of children doubled. Go ahead, the gap is getting bigger and bigger. By 2060? The number of "elderly people over 65" will increase to more than 7.8 million, four times that of children.

A society where there are more old people than children, a society where you will grow old together, will be the future world you will meet in the near future.

What would that be like? You may not have medical insurance such as credit card to see a doctor. At present, the medical expenditure of health insurance is about 550 billion a year. Under the supplementary premium framework of second-generation health insurance, premium income including cigarette donation and public welfare lottery can still have a small surplus. The safety reserve of 20 15 years is maintained for four months, with 200 billion yuan. However, the medical insurance expenditure of the elderly is 3.5 times of the national average, and the aging population will rapidly increase the medical demand and expenditure. If the rate and charging mode remain unchanged, in theory, the supplementary premium of the second-generation health insurance will soon make ends meet. In the future, there will inevitably be many ways, such as raising the rate or limiting medical payment, increasing medical out-of-pocket payment and so on. This means that if health insurance can be maintained in the future, it will either increase the premium or increase the burden of medical treatment, or it may be both.

You may not get the expected pension and annuity. By 20 14, the liabilities of various annuity insurance in Taiwan Province Province will exceed 18 trillion. If the annuity is not reformed, it will face bankruptcy after 20 19. The earliest meeting will be the military retirement fund, which went bankrupt on 20 19; The Education Staff Retirement and Labor Protection Association will go bankrupt in 2027; The Civil Servant Retirement Foundation went bankrupt in 2030; Even the national annuity insurance, which just started in 2008, will face bankruptcy in 2046.

20 15 On July 4th, AFP posted a photo on its Facebook page, which made people all over the world tremble. Gios Chatzifotiadis, a 77-year-old retired Greek gentleman, went to four banks to help his wife get a pension, but she couldn't get one. He has worked hard all his life, but it has come to nothing. He sat in front of a bank in Thessaloniki crying, and his passbook and ID card were scattered all over the floor. The sad song under the Greek financial storm, retired people are the most desolate. In Taiwan Province Province, where the annuity insurance debt is high, the annuity reform is related to whether we will sit in front of the bank and cry one day.

You may face a lonely old age. Think about it. When I was a child, I was afraid to have children because I was eager for freedom and worried about high housing prices, or I only dared to have one child and didn't want to be a burden to children, so I let them pursue their own lives. Old, only my wife cries.

Single or couple's "small" family has become the mainstream unit of Taiwan Province society. In 20 15, there were 300,000 elderly people living alone, and only the old couple lived together; In 2050, one in every five families will be an elderly family living alone. You should learn to stay healthy and lasting, you should learn to go out and make friends, and you should learn to keep looking for the motivation and enthusiasm of life.

But what you have to worry about is that you are willing to go out. Is there a place suitable for you to take a walk and rest? Is there any transportation that can take you there? And when health, action and mind are gradually losing, can you find someone to take care of yourself? Is there any organization to manage? Are you worried that when the farewell day comes, you will die alone?

In 20 14, the National Health Department of the Ministry of Health conducted a survey on the elderly's friendly satisfaction with more than 2,000 elderly people over 60 years old. The results showed that the lack of employment opportunities for the elderly, uneven sidewalks and arcades, unfriendly bus waiting environment and too fast automatic voice service system were the most distressing things for them.

Yes, the world will not follow the same rules, and the new era before us is no longer the law of life of your parents' generation. Taiwan Province Province has entered a slow era from a young and vibrant society. You have to look at the possible changes in the future before you can get ready. How to "define" one's "age", how to adjust one's mentality, and how to coordinate and guide social planning, so that those "troubles" will not become mottled and bleak predictions in later years.

Eight sights of an aging society: the disappearance of the retirement finish line

In 2008, the 52-year-old world's richest man, Bill? Bill Gates announced his retirement from Microsoft after working for 33 years (he founded Microsoft at the age of 20), and Microsoft made a film "Bill Gates' Last Day at Microsoft" for him. In the film, he is busy making appointments for fitness, golf and other leisure and retirement life, but before long, he is eager to make phone calls everywhere, wanting to join U2 band, record, make a movie, go on a talk show and go into politics ... The richest man can't stand the days when he suddenly stops and loses his focus, but he is frequently rejected for actively seeking a second job.

Although the content of the film is purely fictional and funny, it accurately depicts the reality and turning point that the retired ethnic group will face.

1. Should I retire when I am old? Do you really want to retire? )

2. Is life really better without a job? Does retirement mean doing nothing? )

3. When you are old, can you go back to the workplace and create new possibilities? (If you still have the heart to work, does society welcome older workers? )

The retirement tide is the first great wave that the old society faces. Since 20 13 years, the number of retirees in Taiwan Province province has soared to100000 for the first time, setting a record high, which started this wave of retirement.

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Scene 2: "Freshmen" Returning to the Team-Returning to the Workplace after Retirement

"A musician will not retire until there is no music in his center. 」

Hollywood movies have always been a social probe and a guide to the mass consumer market. The interns released on 20 15 are aimed at the silver-haired people who are employed for the second time after retirement. In addition to grasping the pulse of the times in an aging society, another meaning is that the "market potential" of the old and outdated silver-haired people in the new era is gradually being valued.

The hero of this film is a 70-year-old widowed old man. After working in the workplace for more than 40 years, he retired as a senior supervisor without any worries about the economy and health. After retirement, he traveled around the world, learned all kinds of new skills and played Tai Chi, still feeling empty. Because "the music in my heart is endless", I applied for the "internship vacancy for senior people" provided by the online clothing company in response to the employment policy for the elderly. Although I am not familiar with the operating tools of workplace scientific and technological information, I am loyal to the company and employers, good at interpersonal communication and pay attention to clothes and appearance, which not only shows the work value of the elderly, but also breaks through the original prejudice of young employers against silver-haired people.

Although this film only shows the "advantages" of the silver-haired people, the effect can almost be used as a "film to promote the employment of the elderly."

People with money and no money need to work. On October 20 14, 10/0, the "Silver-haired Talent Resource Center of the Ministry of Labor" was established to provide employment, consultation and training for middle-aged and elderly people. At present, it is still in the first stage, which is to eliminate the stereotype of silver-haired people in society and enterprises.

According to the experience of the silver-haired talent resource center, at present, when promoting the reuse of silver-haired manpower with enterprises, most enterprises do have a low willingness to hire silver-haired people. In addition, there are still some unfriendly aspects in the law, including the current Labor Insurance Regulations, which limit the relevant subsidy items, such as the Implementation Measures for Promoting Employment Insurance, and cannot benefit all silver-haired people.

Yu outspoken, director of the silver-haired talent resource center, said that first of all, it is necessary to remove the "obstacles" for middle-aged and elderly people to return to the workplace and strengthen advocacy for the "boss" class of real decision makers in enterprises. In particular, the Rotary Club, which brings together four major industrial and commercial organizations, is chosen as a publicity platform, and through various activities and speeches of the Rotary Club, bosses are persuaded to have "interest" in middle-aged and elderly people, and then silver-haired talents are promoted.

Surveys and data show that older workers have fewer accidents or injuries than younger workers; Older workers have stronger work ethics and loyalty, and their motivation and reliability in dealing with crisis events are higher than those of young and strong workers. Older workers are considered to have guaranteed work quality, lower absenteeism rate, lower turnover rate, better reliability and job stability; Training middle-aged and elderly workers is also a cost-effective investment, because they often maintain long-term relationships with employers and organizations. Most importantly, the interest of elderly workers in the job market is expanding.

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Scenario 3: The whole world is facing the risks of annuity and bankruptcy.

Can be said to be a popular joke in tax statistics:

A said to B, "I'm afraid to tell you something. 」

B: "As long as the horror is not more than the annuity bankruptcy and I can't get a pension, I can bear it. 」

This joke reflects two realities. The professional pursuit of finance and taxation experts all their lives is how to calculate the "balance of payments" of the whole society. In a person's life, there is no more terrible nightmare than working hard to deduct pensions and annuities when he is young and being unable to recover them when he is old.

This nightmare, unfortunately, may happen to the generation we meet. Under the trend of declining birthrate and aging, more and more people withdraw annuities, and fewer and fewer people pay annuities, which leads to losses and bankruptcy crisis. Only by delaying retirement and drawing years can we alleviate the great pressure of running.

According to the statistics of the National Audit Office, in 20 14 years, the hidden liabilities of the central and local governments exceeded 18 trillion yuan. In the next 30 years, the pension fund for civil servants, labor insurance and national pension will not be adjusted in the past few years. As the post-war baby boomers enter retirement age, they will all go bankrupt one after another, and * * * will face the crisis of a substantial increase in hidden liabilities.

In the next 27 years, the pension of the old military education system will need to be paid 5.74 trillion yuan (that is, 18% preferential interest rate deposit); Under the new system, the actuarial net present value of civil servants' retirement funds in the next 30 years is about 3.36 trillion yuan, the number of funds paid is only 594.8 billion yuan, and the pension has not been withdrawn about 2.77 trillion yuan. With the new system and the old system, the total hidden debt is 8.5 1 trillion yuan.

According to the actuarial report entrusted by the Labor Insurance Bureau, the actuarial present value of accrued payment of labor insurance benefits is 9.45 trillion yuan based on the year of 20 14, but as of the end of last year, only 677.5 billion yuan of ordinary accident liability reserve has been accrued, but 8.78 trillion yuan has not been accrued.

Auditors pointed out that in recent years, the labor insurance fund has carried out a number of new businesses, including receiving 60% of the salary in the first six months of parental leave, but the labor insurance rate has not increased accordingly, the payment conditions have become more and more relaxed, and more and more subsidies have been provided, resulting in the failure of the labor insurance fund to accumulate liability reserves.

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Scenario 4: It is difficult for medical insurance to guarantee the quality of medical care for the elderly.

From 65438 to 0995, the national health insurance had only 59% of the insured population, and the premium income was only 76 billion. With the aging of population and the progress of new medical care, financial maintenance has always been a great challenge. In order to cope with the financial difficulties of health insurance, the health insurance department promoted the second-generation health insurance on 20 13 to collect supplementary premiums. According to statistics, as of the end of July, 20 15, the health insurance reserve has exceeded 200 billion yuan, which is enough to cover 4.5 months of health insurance expenditure, exceeding the statutory maximum of 3 months. The Ministry of Health announced that the threshold for withholding and remitting supplementary premiums in 20 16 years will be raised from 5000 yuan to 2006.

The original second-generation health insurance supplementary premium design emphasizes that the premium can be guaranteed not to increase for five years. However, the Ministry of Health and Welfare said that although health insurance is in an "unprecedented stable" state, Taiwan's population is aging rapidly, and health insurance will begin to reverse in 20 17, and its income will drop sharply. In 20 19, Taiwan's population growth will stagnate, the elderly population will increase, the newborn population will decrease, and the health insurance expenditure will exceed 560 billion yuan. By then, the safety reserve will be exhausted and the health insurance finance will be in crisis. It is estimated that by 2025, the medical expenses of health insurance may increase to 9 1000 billion yuan. The medical burden of the elderly society will become the key to the sustainable operation of health insurance in the future.

In the twenty years since the implementation of health insurance, although the scale of funds has been from 200 billion to nearly 600 billion, according to the survey on the living conditions of the elderly published by the Ministry of the Interior, the conscious health status of the elderly in China is getting lower and lower.

The scale of health insurance has tripled, and nearly 40% of it is consumed by the elderly, accounting for 12% of the total population. However, the elderly actually feel that their health status is getting worse and worse. According to general business logic, the more money is spent, the more dissatisfied the parties are. There must be some factors, such as not spending money on the parts that users care most about, or because of excessive medical labeling, which leads to the low satisfaction of the elderly with their own health.

According to the national health insurance research survey, the annual outpatient visits of the elderly in China are close to 30 times, which is nearly four times that of the United States (the average annual outpatient visits of the elderly in the United States are about 7-8 times) (note). However, there are many aspects to evaluate the quality of outpatient medical service for the elderly, and the number of outpatient visits may not be the most important one. "Potential inappropriate drug use" may be more defined as an indicator.

The definition of potential drug abuse is that under the guidance of reasonable prescription, when there is a better alternative drug, doctors choose a drug, and the risk of side effects may be higher than the benefit of treatment. This situation is called potential drug abuse. It is not because the doctor prescribed the wrong medicine, nor because the medicine has side effects such as liver injury and kidney injury, but according to the condition. However, the risk of adverse reactions of this medicine in the elderly is higher than the curative effect. It doesn't mean that the elderly will have serious side effects when they prescribe this medicine, but the probability of adverse reactions after taking it is higher.

According to the data of China's national health insurance, it is found that about 65% of the elderly in China have taken potentially inappropriate drugs every year; But in the United States, the situation of the elderly in the general community is about 20%. This high level of potential drug abuse has not decreased slightly in the past decade, but has increased year by year.

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This article is authorized by Human Life/Chen Lianggong, Yang Huijun's Young Generation in 2025: A Super-aged Society Meeting You and Me.

The younger generation in 2025: the super-aged society that met you and me. Authors: Chen Lianggong, Yang Huijun.

Publishing House: Life in the World