What impact will North Korea’s possible missile launches have?

North Korea launched a ballistic missile during Abe’s visit to the United States, and it landed in the Sea of ??Japan, which made all walks of life in Japan angry and dissatisfied. "This is undoubtedly a mockery of the summit," said a Japanese Self-Defense Forces official. South Korean experts are worried that North Korea's move will cause Seoul to speed up the deployment of THAAD, which will in turn lead China to increase its "retaliation" against South Korea. In his New Year's Day speech this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that North Korea was "in the final stages of testing an intercontinental missile." At that time, Trump responded on Twitter, "This will not happen!" - Now the whole world wants to know, Trump What will Trump do next to prevent North Korea from launching an intercontinental missile?

As for the purpose of North Korea's test launch, South Korea's "Dong-A Ilbo" website stated that the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that from an internal perspective, on February 16, the birthday of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, On the eve of the war, North Korea demonstrated missile capabilities that could strengthen Kim Jong Un's leadership and seek institutional unity. Externally, North Korea wants to test and put pressure on the new US government's policy towards North Korea, spreading the theory that the international community's sanctions against North Korea are useless. For South Korea, this move can cause instability and contradictions in South Korean society.

Many experts in South Korea's diplomacy and security fields believe that North Korea's test launch was a "test provocation" against the new Trump administration. Some analysts also believe that this is North Korea's "fire salute" to demonstrate its ballistic missile capabilities before South Korea and the United States hold joint military exercises in March, and to use Kim Jong Il's birthday as an opportunity to strengthen internal unity.

CNN said that every military test by North Korea has two purposes: technical and political. Technically, even if the test launch fails, it will learn a lot from it. Politically, internally, Kim Jong-un is proving the foundation of his rule - that he is a strong leader. Externally, these military actions send a signal to Pyongyang’s opponents, reminding them not to underestimate North Korea’s military capabilities. The article quoted Shuster, a former senior U.S. intelligence official, as saying, "The political significance of the test is greater than the operational significance - this is the first shot fired by North Korea since Trump took office, just after U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis promised to Japan and South Korea It only took 10 days to respond to North Korea’s nuclear threat.”

Japan’s NHK TV station said that North Korea launched more than 20 ballistic missiles last year. This is the first launch in four months. , also the first launch since Trump became president. The choice of launching ballistic missiles at this time is in response to the condemnation of North Korea during the Japan-US summit talks. North Korea wants to show that it has improved its missile technology in order to shake the new US regime. A senior Japanese Self-Defense Forces official told Japan News Agency, "(North Korea's) purpose is to avoid being isolated by 'Trump diplomacy' by attracting the attention of the international community."

"North Korea's provocation may allow the United States to expand its military deployment in Japan," "Russia Today" TV station said on the 12th that North Korea's new missile test once again aroused strong reactions from the United States, Japan and South Korea. Trump has stated many times before that he will resolutely prevent North Korea from threatening U.S. allies. After North Korea's test launch, Trump expressed his 100% support for Japan. Therefore, North Korea's move will allow Trump to further strengthen military deployment in Japan.

"This is not surprising. North Korean leaders like to attract attention like this from time to time." An unnamed U.S. official told Reuters on the 12th that not long after the Trump administration came to power, It is expected that North Korea will take provocative actions. He also said that the Trump administration also intends to put more pressure on China to restrain North Korea, reflecting the new US president's earlier view that Beijing is not doing enough in this regard.

RIA Novosti also said on the 12th that "the United States will put pressure on China to contain North Korea." A Russian netizen left a message saying that North Korea's test launch of such a medium- and short-range missile does not constitute a threat to the United States. any threat. However, the United States may use this as an excuse to speed up the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea and force China to abandon its opposition to the deployment of the THAAD system.

“On the North Korean issue, China has once again laid its guns on the ground for no reason.” Lu Chao told the Global Times that the excuse for the United States and South Korea to deploy THAAD is to prevent missiles from North Korea. When South Korea discusses the deployment of THAAD, North Korea will always conduct some missile tests to objectively "cooperate" with them.

"The entire strategic balance in Northeast Asia will be broken by THAAD," Lu Chao said. Sino-South Korean and Sino-US relations have been severely damaged by the "THAAD" issue, which may not necessarily be a bad thing for North Korea. The real damage is to China and Russia.