Is the "encirclement and suppression" of Dong Mingzhu excessive or insufficient?

Is the "encirclement and suppression" of Dong Mingzhu excessive or insufficient? (This article has depth and is recommended to read. )

I believe you already know what Lei Jun and Dong Mingzhu call10 billion gambling. I won't say much about the matter itself. Next, I would like to recommend this comment by Mr. Bai Gang, which is the most in-depth one I have ever seen.

If you want to ask my attitude, I just want to use two metaphors of management scientist Collins to illustrate it.

Collins studied tens of thousands of enterprises, trying to find similarities between great entrepreneurs, and finally he found several laws, one of which he called "look in the mirror and look out of the window".

He pointed out that excellent entrepreneurs, when everything goes well, are used to external factors such as luck, that is, "looking out the window." When I encounter difficulties, I will find the reason from myself, that is, "look in the mirror."

However, many entrepreneurs who ultimately fail are just the opposite. When they succeed, they look in the mirror and think they are capable. When the weather is bad, they will look out of the window and think it will be bad luck.

Dear, Lei Jun and Dong Mingzhu, who is looking in the mirror? Who is looking out of the window? (Tan Hao)

Dong Lei bet that Ma Yun won! ?

Comments: Bai Gang

You know we're not arguing about the result. No one takes this gamble seriously. But there is a smell in it. I want to distinguish it.

Deep reading expert: Bai Gang (disciple of Mr. Bao Zheng)

In the past two days, the gambling between Ms. Dong Mingzhu and Mr. Lei Jun has occupied the headlines in the commercial field. This is not a dispute of passion, nor a dispute of mode, but a dispute of two ideas. I didn't want to join in the fun, but many friends called to discuss it. What they care about is not who wins or loses, but the truth behind winning or losing. Try to explain.

First, Ms. Dong Mingzhu will lose. It doesn't take five years, three years is enough.

The basic principle of management science is that enterprises must always ask themselves: How did they win in the past? Can these factors support enterprises to win continuously? What else do enterprises need to continue to win? Therefore, it is asserted that Ms. Dong will lose. This needs to start with how she won.

The first person who realized the value of Gree was Mr. Yuan Xincheng, the former president of TCL Group. In 2004, he wanted to invest 654.38 billion yuan to control Gree, but was banned by the local government. Gree has also developed rapidly since then, and the reasons for its growth are mainly in three points:

First of all, urbanization has opened a huge market for air conditioners and refrigerators. In this process, not only Gree, but also every enterprise is growing rapidly. This is no different from Mr. Lei Jun's success in the field of smart phones, thanks to external market opportunities. It's just that Mr. Lei admitted that he was a "sow who climbed the tree by typhoon", while Ms. Dong mostly admitted herself. Here, she has made a high judgment, and Ms. Dong lost the case.

The home appliance market spread from the city to the countryside, starting with the TV that consumers need most, commonly known as black electricity; Then there are washing machines, refrigerators, air conditioners, commonly known as white electricity. Because of customer demand, air conditioning started at the latest and the market was the largest. Because the refrigerator and washing machine are only one for each household, but the air conditioner is one for each room. In the past ten years, with the help of the typhoon of urbanization, the air-conditioning market has skyrocketed, which is the primary condition for Gree's success.

Therefore, in this decade, not only Gree, but all enterprises in the air-conditioning field have succeeded. TCL has done so badly in recent years that the annual sales of air conditioners have exceeded 654.38+0 billion. And not only air conditioners, but also enterprises in the field of refrigerators have succeeded. Cologne was vandalized, and several people from Cologne and Wal-Mart started from scratch, specializing in refrigerators and listed companies.

Second, Gree, like Midea, has established a manufacturer alliance. In many fields, there has been obvious separation and even opposition among manufacturers. 90 years ago, Si Long of General Motors overtook Ford with the help of the manufacturers' union. In China, it was also Mr. Yuan Xincheng who first practiced this concept, relying on the integration alliance of manufacturers in the TV field to defeat Changhong, which was also arrogant. Then, Mr. Yuan told Mr. He Xiangjian that Midea had succeeded.

Moreover, the United States has gone further and even set up joint ventures with some dealers, which are deeply bound. The reason here is that the air conditioner is a semi-finished product and depends on installation. The consumption time of air conditioners is very concentrated, and having a huge amount of installation is the basis for controlling the market. The installation ability is not in the hands of the manufacturer, but in the hands of the dealer. Therefore, vendor alliance is more important and powerful. The semi-finished characteristics of air conditioners are the reason why Gree can compete with Suning Gome, and the reason why air conditioners are not the darling of e-commerce sales so far.

Gree follows the example of Midea's manufacturer alliance. Ms. Dong is a heroine among women, generous, good at drinking, unpretentious, and very easy to produce personality charm among dealers. This is the internal reason for Gree's success.

Chunlan, the first successful company, made a strategic mistake, and then Gree, Midea and Haier followed suit without making mistakes in the field of air conditioning, relying on the efforts of manufacturers' alliance to become the troika of the industry, while Gree's future growth is not as good as Midea and Haier's.

Third, Gree has a very solid quality gene. This is Gree's strength. It's not tricky, in order to reduce the cost and not damage the quality. Air conditioning troika, Haier sells service, beauty sells appearance, and Gree sells quality. Ms. Dong is wrong. Gree's advantage is not the manufacturing factory, but the quality gene. However, in the era when manufacturing specialization was not formed, Gree only relied on factories to ensure quality. This is not the credit of Ms. Dong, but the quality gene of the chairman.

So are these three articles enough to support the sustained growth of Gree? Obviously not. The rapid development period of urbanization is still two or three years, and then it will enter a flat period. More importantly, the future home appliances must be intelligent, which Ms. Dong does not understand; The consumers of home appliances in the future are young people, which Ms. Dong does not understand. If Ms. Dong is smart enough, she should understand that what Mr. Lei knows is not marketing, but understanding customers and using technology to make traditional household appliances intelligent. Ms. Dong did not exert her strength at key points, but prayed for Ma Yun, which not only lost her future, but also lost her reality. How does Gree balance e-commerce and dealers? How does Gree deal with Midea and Haier?

Ms. Dong understands traditional manufacturing and manufacturers' alliance. In recent years, Gree is learning from the United States, using the advantages of supply chain, manufacturing and channels to sell other traditional household appliances and small household appliances. Can this have a future? Once Gree falls, does the dealer choose to sink with it or choose another partner?

Ms. Dong reminds me of Ms. Wu Shihong, former president of Microsoft China and vice president of TCL Group. Their personalities, abilities, advantages and disadvantages are very similar. I am afraid that Ms. Dong's ending is not as good as Ms. Wu's. I used to think that Ms. Dong was an entrepreneur. After watching this gambling game, I was a little sad. Another hero fell. Gree is in danger!

Second, Mr. Lei Jun will win, but if he wins the bet, will he win the future?

I think Mr. Lei's original intention is to help fellow villagers change their thinking. Helpless to become a farce, one is that Mr. Lei is not good at words and hurts Ms. Dong's self-esteem; Ms. Dong's self-cultivation and self-cultivation are relatively weak and will be well-intentioned; The three CCTV families are unscrupulous, fanning the flames and adding fuel to the fire. This hurt Ms. Dong and made her a flash in the pan in the eyes of the whole country.

Mr. Lei has no intention of gambling. He knew that he would win. He is very sober, knowing that Xiaomi is lucky to grow up and catch up with the wave of mobile phone intelligence. He also knows that there are still three years left in the wave of changing planes, which is enough for Xiaomi to surpass Gree.

But Lei Jun's sight is no longer a mobile phone. He saw two things: one was the younger generation of consumers, Xiaomi relied on mobile phones to gather huge young people, Xiaomi came to the lifestyle and heart of this group of people, and created the voice and support of this group of people; The other is the intelligence of living equipment. Xiaomi won't sell Mi Tu (it's just a trick to make young people more excited). What Xiaomi wants to do is smart TV, smart refrigerator, smart washing machine, smart air conditioner, smart car ... and make these things interconnected and unified on customers' smart phones. Is it far?

When many people think that the Internet is an e-commerce, Lei Jun thinks of the powerful power generated by the combination of new technologies and mobile Internet, which will subvert many industries. Lei Jun is a clever boy. He is traveling across the ocean, saying everywhere that he is making an Internet mobile phone. In fact, what Xiaomi is doing is not a mobile phone or the Internet, but a community of young people. Xiaomi's business is mainly Xiaomi. Com and online and offline activities to organize young people. How many loyal customers does Xiaomi have? 1 ten thousand? 100000? 1 billion? How much value does Xiaomi provide to each customer every year? 1 thousand? 1 ten thousand? 65438+ million? Do a multiplication calculation, how big can Xiaomi do in the future?

Ms. Dong's understanding of Mr. Lei is too superficial. Mr. Lei knows very well that he will win this gambling game, saying that five years is just to leave some feelings for his fellow villagers and predecessors. Recently, an analytical article about Xiaomi was serialized. Let me explain the details slowly.

But I am worried about Xiaomi's future. Gree's fate will be the same as Nokia's, and it will die in the subversion of traditional business. But the crisis of Xiaomi lies not in the market space, but in its organization. Xiaomi has developed too fast and has not established a management system. Of the more than 3,000 employees, 1 1,000 are engaged in Xiaomi.com, 1 1,700 are engaged in call centers and 500 are engaged in research and development. Almost everyone in this group works more than 12 hours a day, nearly 30 days a month. What do they rely on? If it is Lei Jun's personality charm, I think it is too exaggerated. The most important reason is that option incentives stimulate young people's original desires, and then lead this group of people to task orientation in the simplest way. Will this last long?

I dare not jump to conclusions. Lei Gong, who is in charge of Tibetan medicine, taught me not to use the known to deny the unknown. So I dare not say that Xiaomi's zero management can't be successful, but I have studied countless domestic and foreign enterprises with my tutor, Mr. Bao Zheng, and I have never seen zero management succeed continuously. For specific reasons, please see my previous article on analyzing New Oriental.

Xiaomi can't issue options to all key personnel like Huawei, covering more than 70,000 employees so far. Xiaomi has accepted several rounds of investment, and listing will inevitably limit the scope of option incentives. If this article is gone and there is no management, how can Xiaomi unite more and more people and let them continue to work hard? Expand incentives by constantly splitting businesses? This is feasible in the medium term, but further extreme zero management may lead Xiaomi to no return.

If Mr. Lei is wise, he should put down the gambling, slow down the business growth of Xiaomi after three years, and gradually introduce management. This is why I am worried about Xiaomi's future. Mr. Lei has never succeeded in management. Whether he can make greater progress is worth our expectation.

Third, Mr. Ma Yun fish in troubled waters. He wins the present, but loses the future!

I have been looking forward to Mr. Ma Yun, hoping that he will become more atmospheric and even surpass Ren, Zhang Ruimin and Liu Chuanzhi's generation of China entrepreneurs. After this gamble, considering its extreme resistance to WeChat, I saw Mr. Ma Yun's cunning, commonly known as "thief". In the history of business, we have never seen anyone who can succeed by cunning. At this point, I ended Mr. Ma Yun's expectation.

Mr. Ma Yun also took advantage of the panic of traditional enterprises on the Internet and began to compile these traditional predators. This will make Mr. Ma Yun by going up one flight of stairs in a short time. He is not only the savior of tens of millions of small vendors in Taobao, but also the savior of those big names who once dismissed him. But Mr. Ma Yun has been confused by this "achievement", which will affect his determination to change.

What comes to my mind is a picture that a big ship is about to sink. Mr. Ma Yun came to the boat and shouted, "Get on my boat quickly, and then count the money in one hand and collect the money in the other." As a result, the pleasure of counting money overwhelmed reason. Mr. Ma Yun's boat was overweight and unfortunately sank before sailing to the other side.

Mr. Ma Yun imagines himself as an aircraft carrier. Mr Ma is not Hua Teng. What he wants to build is a fleet with extensive cooperation, uniting all emerging forces such as Xiaomi and JD.COM. Therefore, Mr. Ma Yun established a huge Internet distribution platform, while Mr. Ma Hua Teng established a community. The great difference of ideas makes two horses compete with each other, and Mr. Ma Yun can only be Mark.

Mr. Wang Jianlin smiled. He found that he still had a chance.

Mr. Wang Jianlin's few words let me see his great progress this year. He resolutely put down the gambling contract a year ago and humbly asked the new generation. This is taller than Ms. Dong. If I guess correctly, Mr. Wang is playing a big game of chess. First of all, he took a small part of his business to unite with Mr. Ma Yun, which means that at present, Mr. Ma Yun's system is valuable, but its value is only in the channel, not in the community, so we should cooperate, but don't expect too much; Then, he will take out a large part of his business and cooperate with Mr. Ma, who represents the future; Finally, he will learn from Mr. Lei and shift his business focus to the lifestyle of young people, especially in the entertainment and tourism industries.

Therefore, Mr. Wang saw through Mr. Ma Yun's cunning and Ms. Dong's superficiality. He knew that he still had a chance to change and deliberately embraced the future.

5. CCTV is the winner of reality, but it has lost face.

The gambling for two years in a row made CCTV catch everyone's eye. This is the dream of ordinary media. However, we have never dared to regard CCTV as an ordinary media. Last year's gambling game, we thought it was the shallowness of Ma and Wang. Now it seems that CCTV is the player.

Mr Chen Weihong is wise. He thinks the debate between Dong Lei is very interesting, and puts forward the mode dispute. Mr. Ma Yun helped him improve, which became a dispute of ideas. This point has been well grasped, which has aroused extensive discussion and in-depth thinking in the commercial field, which is a great contribution.

And Mr. Lei Jun's one-dollar gambling game was directed by CCTV to be 654.38+0 billion. What has CCTV become? I don't want to imagine, but I know that CCTV has contributed to China's GDP. 10 years ago, we used to treat that story as a joke: two economists bet on eating shit and helped the US GDP increase by 200 million US dollars. Now this joke has a real China version. Neither Ms. Dong nor Mr. Lei will seriously come up with 654.38 billion yuan. CCTV intends to increase our GDP by 2 billion.

A wonderful argument was put on a ridiculous coat, and CCTV lost face. To show that I have a better sense of humor than Mr. Lei, I added this paragraph as a joke to relax everyone who has been reading this article, hehe.