Who will have the last laugh in the reshuffle of new energy vehicle companies?

After so many years of talk about “overtaking in corners”, has any Chinese automobile company really completely surpassed overseas brands? No. From the early years of the 21st century to 2018, we invested too much optimism, but Chinese automobile companies have not truly achieved "qualitative" and "quantitative" transcendence, even though we have taken the global lead in the new energy era. The pioneer role of sheep.

Today’s new energy automobile market is extremely tense. The barbaric growth in the past few years has resulted in a series of waste of resources, money and talent. The laws of history tell us unceremoniously: from an "automotive power" to an "automotive power" there will be pain, and the laws of the market economy will make companies with outdated technology continue to withdraw from the stage of history.

For Chinese automobile companies, the official implementation of the new energy national subsidy policy in 2019 has once again sounded the rallying cry for this "era of great reshuffle".

As of now, 486 new energy vehicle manufacturers have been registered in mainland China, and their brand influence, technology accumulation and actual production and sales vary widely. With so many car companies, can half of them survive? The answer must be no.

At the first China New Energy Vehicle Summit Forum in 2018, Wang Cheng, deputy director of the Beijing Office of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, predicted that the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 7 million units in 2025, accounting for approximately Passenger car market share 20. However, within these seven years, the market will naturally eliminate hundreds of new energy vehicle brands that have neither R&D capabilities nor considerable production and sales.

Who will be removed first? OEM brands bear the brunt. The author first wants to elaborate on a key point: OEM is not a crime, but cost is. Because new energy car companies that choose the OEM model have no way to control costs. The three expensive components of batteries, motors, and electronic controls must be outsourced. The entire manufacturing process and quality control process are controlled by the OEM. There is only one thing left in his hands - the brand. I'm kidding. For a new brand like yours, your popularity is about zero and the market value is extremely low. There is no way to follow the OEM model of Nike and Apple. How can you talk about brand value?

The prospects of the "OEM model" are slim

According to foreign media reports, China is formulating a new "Draft of OEM Management Measures", which requires OEM companies to meet the following conditions :

1. In the past three years, domestic R&D investment has reached at least 4 billion yuan;

2. In the past two years, global sales of pure electric passenger vehicles have reached at least 15,000 vehicles;

3. The OEM contract must be signed for at least 3 years, and the annual OEM production capacity at the same location must reach at least 50,000 vehicles;

4. The company must have billions of RMB

5. At most two car companies can OEM for it.

If the above OEM management regulations are finally promulgated, it will make it impossible for a large number of new energy vehicle manufacturing forces that are currently unqualified and have insufficient R&D investment to stand up, and all investment will only become a "PPT car manufacturing" joke. . At present, NIO, the leading new car-making force, basically complies with the above stringent regulations, but the vast majority of new car-making forces cannot support such huge expenditures.

Why does the government issue such strict regulations to manage the "OEM model"? This is related to the current situation in which a large number of new car-making forces have broken away from the heavy industry base and directly turned to foundries to produce immature products. OEMs cannot guarantee that their OEM products fully meet the original design standards, and the parts design of new car-making forces is not very sophisticated. Coupled with the high error rate of OEM management and OEM production models, the "OEM model" It has gradually become synonymous with "inferior products".

The "joint venture model" has a bright future

However, with passenger car production qualifications so scarce, how can new car-making forces with real technical strength achieve large-scale production? There are many ways to do this. For example, the "joint venture model" between Bordrin Automobile and Tianjin FAW Xiali (000927), AIWAYS Automobile and Jiangling Motors (000550) is a new way for some new car-making forces to find a new way to achieve mass production in advance. In just a few months, Bojun Auto and AIWAYS have successfully obtained production qualifications to avoid becoming victims of the "era of great reshuffle" of new energy vehicles.

The paths of Bordrin Automobile and AIWAYS becoming regulars are quite legendary. When Bordrin Automobile and Tianjin FAW Xiali planned to establish a joint venture, the former invested approximately 1 billion yuan and held the dominant position. Those who invest in vehicle-related land, factories, equipment and other assets and liabilities hold a small share of the shares. This allows Bordrin Auto to not only retain as much funds as possible for R&D when carrying out R&D and production work in the future, but also have the production qualifications and stable and reliable production systems that other new forces covet, and also gain strong initiative Power and control can be said to kill three birds with one stone.

AIWAYS’s capital increase of 1.7 billion to acquire 50% stake in Jiangling Holdings (Landwind Motors) is a solution to “obtain qualifications in a roundabout way”. Both partners have state-owned assets backgrounds in Jiangxi Province. This cooperation was mostly facilitated by the local government to promote the development of the local new energy automobile industry. With this, Jiangling Holdings Shangrao Branch's production qualifications for 100,000 pure electric passenger vehicles were naturally put into AIWAYS's "pocket".

For more new electric vehicle companies that have not yet obtained production qualifications, insufficient R&D investment or even financing difficulties, the introduction of the new "OEM Management Draft" may mean a knockout competition. It's officially here.

Starting a business is never easy, and starting a new energy vehicle company is a "hell mode" test that is even more difficult than Shu Road. The former No. 31 on the Hurun Rich List, the former No. 8 on the Hurun IT Rich List, and the former No. 37 on the Forbes China Rich List all belong to Jia Yueting, whose total personal assets are as high as 42 billion yuan. It's just that it only took this rich man two years to become a debt-ridden scorned by the whole of China. This all stemmed from the break in the capital chain for the start-up projects of new energy vehicle companies.

What do new car-making forces lack? Lack of talent, lack of land, lack of technology, lack of factories, lack of popularity... In the final analysis, they are all problems that can be solved with money. The question is, what should we do if we don't have money? Then no one can help you. However, 2019 has become a cold winter for China's economy. It has been so cold that "hot money" is no longer hot. Venture investors have been trying to protect themselves. Who is willing to share the same boat with the new car-making forces?

Yes, but large venture capital investments in difficult times will only be invested in technology-leading companies. In the first half of this year, local state-owned assets, central enterprise capital, and industrial capital once again pounced on the new energy automobile industry with 13.5 billion new financing. Among them, Weilai Automobile received the largest amount of 10 billion yuan, Bojun Automobile successfully raised 2.5 billion yuan, and AIWAYS Automobile raised 1 billion yuan.

In these days when the outside world is constantly attacking NIO and the media is eager to publish negative news about NIO every day, 10 billion is not only a solid financial chain for NIO, the leader of new car-making forces. It is a solid link in rebuilding confidence in the industry. For Bojun Automobile, which is still in the seed stage, 2.5 billion yuan is a huge sum of money, which is enough to support this technology-oriented company to continue to strengthen its hard power, and this investment comes with international and domestic capital ( Corporate actions supported by central enterprises, foreign capital, private sector, local industrial capital) are highly independent and sustainable, which is enough to help Bojun stand out and gradually become one of the leading companies in the new car manufacturing industry.

Of course, the more venture capital, the better. Byton Motors once said that the group is very careful to introduce every venture capital investment to prevent its shares from being used prematurely and excessively. be diluted to avoid giving up the final fruits of struggle to capital.

It can be seen that if the venture capital in the capital chain is insufficient, it will become the "LeTV model" and will inevitably die; if there is too much, it will face dilution of shares and hand over the leadership. NIO is about to face this risk. Bojun Auto and AIWAYS, which have a moderate proportion of venture capital, appear to be much more stable, which is the "golden mean".

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Updating, Upgrading and Smooth Resource Recycling of Key Consumer Goods (2019-2020)". The new policy will affect the consumption of new energy vehicles. New regulations have been issued: "No locality shall impose purchase or travel restrictions on new energy vehicles, and those that have been implemented should be cancelled."

Analysts such as CITIC Securities believe: "The final beneficiary of the "Plan" is the leading brands. For companies with weak brand power and poor product competitiveness, there is no advantage at all. "This analysis is not unreasonable, because the "license-owning" residents in cities with current purchase and travel restrictions often choose low-quality "oil-to-electricity" models with short range and low prices for transitional use. They are truly superior in terms of battery life, space, configuration, and price. Not many products that meet their needs have been released, and everyone is waiting to see.

As purchase restrictions and travel restrictions are relaxed, the consumption behavior of using cheap cars to "occupy a number" will be greatly reduced, and will be replaced by the release of more and more high-quality new energy vehicles. Fortunately, the development speed of China's new energy automobile industry is far faster than that of the traditional automobile powers in Europe and the United States. Consumers hope that the new energy automobile products they buy can be comparable to fuel vehicles at the same price in terms of product strength. The upcoming long-range models such as GAC New Energy Aion LX, Bordrin iV6, AIWAYS U5 and Xpeng P7 are the backbone of this "high cost-effective wave" of new energy vehicles.

However, don’t forget Tesla Motors on the other side of the Pacific. This “catfish” in the new energy industry is advancing the localization process at a high speed. The factory has almost reached capacity in half a year, which can be called “ A perfect blend of American technology and Chinese speed.” According to a news report from the Passenger Car Association, the Tesla Model 3 produced in the United States has become the sales champion of new energy vehicles in North America. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume reached 46,000 units. The Toyota Prius PHEV and Chevrolet Bolt, which ranked second/third, only had enough sales. with its mantissa. In the future, the domestically produced Model 3 will bring suffocating pressure to China's new energy car companies. To resist the power of the United States, they will have to rely on leading car companies with independent research and development capabilities such as NIO and Bojun.

In the ever-accelerating elimination race, how many of the more than 480 Chinese new energy vehicle companies will survive? Perhaps the answer will be very embarrassing, but we might as well regard this "race to extinction" life and death battle as a true interpretation of the law of the jungle in the automobile industry.

For the country, the "era of great reshuffle" is not a bad thing, because only by survival of the fittest can we free up those misguided and wasted talents and resources and let them return to the leading car companies , continue to work together to promote the development of our new energy vehicle industry.

The answer to the Jungle Game has become increasingly clear. “Many and nothing” companies with no products, no technology, no qualifications, and no funds will inevitably become the first batch to be eliminated. In the long run, we have every reason to believe that among the more than 480 electric vehicle companies, China's "Volkswagen" and "Toyota" will definitely emerge!