What did Wang Jianlin and Ma Yun gamble on?

Guo Yukuan's Column Recently, at an award ceremony, the leading figures of commercial real estate in China and e-commerce in China got engaged. Around who will dominate the future, e-commerce and traditional shops, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Dalian Wanda Group Co., Ltd., and Ma Yun, chairman of Alibaba Group's board of directors, will not give in to each other. On the question of whether e-commerce will replace traditional store operations, Ma Yun believes that e-commerce will win. Wang Jianlin compromised that "both sides can survive." Ma Yun said: "E-commerce is not to replace anyone, nor to eliminate anyone, but to establish a transparent, open, fair and just business environment. It's not Ma Yun who really created one trillion yuan, but the bartender who you may not look back today and the courier who won't nod in the street. They are changing the economy of China today. So I'm not replacing you, but helping them replace you. Finally, Wang Jianlin proposed: "I bet with Mr. Ma Yun: In 2020, if e-commerce accounts for 50% of the retail market in China, I will give him 1 billion, and if he doesn't arrive, I will still 1 billion." So the gambling of two business tycoons became a big news headline. In recent years, the Internet trade in China has developed rapidly, and the rapid development of large Internet companies has squeezed the market of traditional small and medium-sized enterprises. The popularity of Internet trade in China is first reflected in the rapid development of shopping websites. Sales of Taobao, JD.COM Mall and Vanke Eslite are all rising rapidly. Secondly, online shopping models are constantly being renovated, such as B2C, C2C, group buying, and so on. Moreover, consumers' enthusiasm for online shopping has always been high, and it is not uncommon to buy a roll of napkins or a pack of biscuits online. I have noticed that in Taiwan Province Province, Hongkong and other regions, traditional physical stores are still prosperous, the most successful business families are still obsessed with commercial real estate, hardly challenged by the new economy, and shopping websites like Taobao are not as popular as mainland China. In the United States, although e-commerce companies such as ebay and Amazon have developed very well, physical stores have not been so seriously affected, nor have they reached the point of being in the mainland. What caused this difference? In my opinion, three reasons determine the comparison of market advantages between e-commerce and traditional retail: First, it has a lot to do with China's tax structure and other business costs. In Chinese mainland, the government's tax level on small and medium-sized enterprises is too high, and the tax level on some large enterprises is slightly better. They can enter the market through the channel of "attracting investment" and enjoy certain preferential tax policies. Moreover, opening a physical store, in addition to the tax burden, industry and commerce, urban management, health and fire protection can all be inspected at home, which increases the operating costs of enterprises. Relatively speaking, e-commerce has great advantages. Secondly, this is related to the low labor cost in Chinese mainland. A large number of low-end labor forces make it possible to carry out large-scale terminal logistics. The scene of courier riding an electric car to deliver goods can be seen everywhere in the mainland, and a pack of melon seeds can also be delivered to your door. If the income level of Chinese workers is raised to a certain extent in the future, a considerable part of online procurement will shrink, because delivery is not cost-effective. Thirdly, a large number of young otaku and otaku have appeared in Chinese mainland in recent years. These otaku otaku girls are very familiar with the Internet and like to "stay at home". They constitute the main force of online shopping. Many people interpret the appearance of otaku as the influence of cultural factors, but in my opinion, this explanation is unconvincing. In my opinion, the reason why otaku and otaku appear on a large scale is because the urban construction in the mainland is too deformed. In Hongkong, Taiwan Province Province and many cities in Europe and America, the streets are not very wide, and many roads are paved with stones, which are suitable for people to walk. And there will be a small park not far away where pedestrians can go to have a rest. Small shops on the street are also very distinctive, and many shops have a long history. Even in new york, the most prosperous metropolis in the world, there are a large number of specialty stores, and many century-old shops are deeply loved by people. Therefore, in these places, shopping is not only to buy necessities, but also a social way and a pleasant life experience. However, on the wide roads like the Second Ring Road and the Third Ring Road in Beijing, it is difficult for us to imagine a scene suitable for friends to go shopping happily together. Not to mention shopping, this main street is not even suitable for cycling, but only for elite luxury cars. To make matters worse, the shopping places in Beijing are seriously polarized, either high-end stores like Yansha Mall or low-end wholesale markets like Xinfadi. The elite can drive directly to Yansha for shopping, but the ordinary middle class or white-collar workers who just graduated from college can't find a relaxed and happy shopping environment. High-end stores can't afford to buy things, the wholesale market is chaotic and poor, and the quality of goods is not guaranteed. Such an environment makes them have to shop online. It is these people who are forced to become otaku and otaku who have propped up the rapid development of Internet trade. Therefore, in my opinion, the prosperity of Internet trade is a good thing for China. These online businesses are really great. Their rapid development proves their entrepreneurial spirit and shows that their business model is in line with the current special situation in China. But prosperity to this extent is an abnormal and abnormal prosperity, and the amazing success of those large Internet companies is not something that people should be proud of. (The author is a researcher at Changce Think Tank)