What is the price of L- 15 trainer?

Hongdu Airlines, which announced its third quarter report yesterday, is the "star" of the recent decline list. Why did Hongdu Airlines lose its wings? There are many sayings in the market, such as the shipment of Guangfa Fund, the lower-than-expected performance and the internal adjustment requirements of stock price. The recent rumor that Hongdu wants MBO (management buyout) is a new statement related to the company's fundamentals. The other is "related to the fundamentals" from the public's doubts about its L- 15 trainer.

There are voices of doubt on the Internet.

As a flag of military concept stocks, the ups and downs of Hongdu Airlines affect the hearts of military fans. The reason why Hongdu Airlines is loved by thousands of people is largely because of the "beautiful" prospect of L- 15 and its popularity in the market. In fact, L- 15, which made its first flight at the beginning of this year, is now basically stuck in the "purchase intention" of domestic and foreign buyers. With the stock price falling, online voices began to question L- 15. It is understood that the related questions focus on one point: Can the export market of L- 15 reach the scale of several hundred?

The export market is difficult to be optimistic.

"India intends to buy 30 trainers" is considered to be a major reason why L- 15 is optimistic. Regarding India's purchase of L- 15, a netizen of China Development Forum denounced it as "making it up". "India's purchase of China fighters is just like Japan's purchase of China's J-7, which can only be regarded as a joke." As for the export prospect of L- 15, some military fans pointed out that the prospect of L- 15, which sells faster than Xiaolong fighter, is difficult to be as gorgeous as the legend.

As an avid military fan, Mr. Cheng, who works in a network company, is very familiar with the fighters of various countries, and is familiar with the design, weapons and equipment, electronic equipment and sales market of well-known fighters. It is no exaggeration to call him a "quasi-weapon expert". Mr. Cheng said that the L- 15 trainer developed by Hongdu Airlines cost more than US$ 10 million, which was mainly used to train pilots of the third generation fighters. It is suitable for Su -27 and J- 10, but it is "reluctant" to the gust of three generations and a half fighters and EF-2000. The future market focus of L- 15 should be at home. As for foreign markets, due to the price factor, "there is great uncertainty".

There are high and low market positioning.

According to Mr. Cheng, the main competitors of L- 15 in the world are Golden Eagle T-50 from South Korea, Jacques 130 from Russia and cutting-edge trainers from Italy and Britain. In particular, the "Golden Eagle" trainer jointly produced by Lockheed Martin and Korea Aviation Industry Corporation has high maneuverability and advanced electronic equipment, and can be used as the trainer of the fourth generation fighter (such as F-22). "Golden Eagle" is only about $20 million, and its competitiveness in the international market is quite strong. Because the two engines of L- 15 are imported, and some electronic equipment must be imported, these two parts account for a large proportion of the cost, and its price is difficult to come down. Moreover, 150 Xiaolong's export price to Pakistan at that time was only 10 million dollars. In contrast, the pricing of L- 15 is really high.

According to Mr. Bucheng, Hongdu's K-8 trainer sold well, and Egypt alone ordered 80 and bought a production line. This may also be the reason why L- 15 is so sought after by domestic brokers. However, some online military fans pointed out that the L-15 with a cost of $0/50,000 may be in an embarrassing situation at present. "/kloc-0.5 million dollars trainer can only be bought by big countries or rich countries, and those third world countries who only bite their teeth and buy 4 million dollars can't afford it." On the other hand, capable countries will not buy L- 15 for some reasons or to support their own military industry.

Even Guangfa Fund began to whisper about the prospect of L- 15. Zhu Ping, investment director of Guangfa Fund, also said in his blog that it is not certain that "Hongdu's aircraft will be equipped to relevant departments or exported as expected".

The earnings per share of Hongdu Airlines, which announced the third quarter report yesterday, was 0.245 yuan, which was lower than many people's expectations. Despite the frequent bad news, there are still professionals who are optimistic about its technical trend. "In any case, the power of short-term rebound is accumulating."

2006/ 10-26