What is the price increase after four years?

20 1 1 Beijing housing price outlook Tuesday, July 200718: 33 In 2004, Beijing sold 26.02 million square meters of commercial housing with an average selling price of 6 178 yuan; In 2005, the sales of commercial housing in Beijing was 22 1.7 million square meters, with an average sales price of 7534 yuan, up by 21.95% year-on-year. In 2006, the sales of commercial housing in Beijing was 22.88 million square meters, with an average sales price of 8,792 yuan, up16.7% year-on-year; According to my prediction of real estate trend in the next five years in 2006, in 2007, the sales of commercial housing in Beijing will be "obviously inflated", that is, the price will rise rapidly and the transaction will drop sharply! House prices in Beijing have gone crazy. In the first quarter of 2007, the average price of auction houses in Chaoyang District was RMB 14564 per square meter. Vacancy in Beijing has become a disaster, with 882,000 square meters vacant in Chaoyang District alone, which is still an open figure. Beijing's bubble is about to burst, and even the blue book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences admits that the ratio of house price to rent exceeds 270. So, in 2007, what will Beijing's housing prices be like? What about 2008, 2009, 20 10, 20 1 1? In fact, the reason is very simple, but we admit it or not, whether we want to see the paintings outside! At the beginning of 2006, there was a movement of not buying a house in China. This book is a joke, but it is worth reflecting on. Because this "joke" has been heated up, there is a "correct action behind wrong thinking" hidden behind it. Buying a house now is like taking over the stock at a virtual height of 3700 points, which requires great courage. Some people may say that I only buy a house for my own living, and the ups and downs have nothing to do with me. I just want to be practical! This is actually wrong, because it is not always just the location that determines the value of the house. As we all know, at the end of 2008, Beijing will inevitably experience a turning point in housing prices, believe it or not. So, what is the real power to pull down Beijing's housing prices? Does this power exist? Perhaps yesterday's central personnel transfer will open the curtain of this mysterious force. The core force to lower housing prices must come from the government and be attributed to scientific and technological progress. Although the house is a special commodity, it cannot be divorced from the general laws of commodities: cost, supply and demand and innovation. First of all, the cost: the cost of a real estate development project is basically divided into the following five categories: land cost, construction and installation cost, management cost, interest cost and tax cost. Before talking about cost, let's talk about what "floor cost" means. Floor refers to the unit cost of the above-ground quasi-construction area of new development projects. No matter how many floors the project is built, the cost cannot be reduced or increased. So, please stop imagining friends who reduce costs by building tall buildings and read it again. Land cost consists of two parts: 1. Land transfer fee: In 2006, the average floor transfer fee in Beijing was only 903.8 yuan. 2. Demolition cost: In 2006, the average floor demolition cost in Beijing was only RMB1970. Jian 'an cost consists of three parts: 1. Municipal expenses: In general, the municipal expenses of floors do not exceed those of 250 yuan. 1. Jian 'an cost: according to the total construction area, the average cost of a high-rise building meeting the standard of rough houses does not exceed 1.3 million yuan per square meter, but because about 1.7% of the construction area is underground, that is, the project with a total construction area of 1.3 million square meters, the Jian 'an cost should be less than/. 13. Energy-saving cost: Even according to the German standard of 80% energy saving in 2002, the floor cost can be controlled within 300 yuan by completely adopting "solar energy, central fresh air, floor energy exchange, ground source heat pump and advanced thermal insulation and sound insulation technology". After the completion of the project, the heating cost, air conditioning cost and hot water cost can be saved by about 50 yuan per square meter every year, which can be supported by national policies. Therefore, in fact, the cost of energy saving can be completely ignored in the whole life range. Management cost: it consists of the direct cost of the enterprise and the cost of the external organization. At present, the direct cost of enterprises is gradually decreasing, and outsourcing and outsourcing are becoming more and more common. From the planning, sales, publicity and management of the project, outsourcing will be the main task, and the management expenses usually account for 5% of the total project cost, within 250 yuan per square meter. Interest cost: Due to the limited self-owned funds of development enterprises, it is inevitable to obtain funds through financing channels such as loans. Because the state stipulates that the proportion of its own funds should reach at least 35%, in practice, Beijing can't even be lower than 50%. Therefore, according to two-year estimation, the total interest cost of the project should not exceed 7% of the total investment of the project, that is, it usually does not exceed 350 yuan. Tax cost: The crime of tax evasion by real estate enterprises is a comprehensive and universal phenomenon. Basic taxes such as business tax are difficult to avoid because they are related to customer contracts and mortgages. Only personal income tax, enterprise income tax and land value-added tax are easy to evade. Without corporate income tax, the normal tax cost is usually 8% of the total investment of each project, usually 400 yuan per square meter. To sum up, if an enterprise develops a project in Beijing according to the average cost in 2006, its cost is about: floor land cost (903.8+ 1970)= 2873.8 yuan+floor construction and installation cost (250+1566.2+300) = 2/kloc-. However, in actual sales, the supporting sales revenue accounts for at least 10%, that is, the actual floor cost is less than 5390 yuan. From the perspective of cost alone, even with reference to the average sales price of 8792 yuan in 2006, the project return rate of Beijing real estate industry is still as high as 63% ≈ (8792-5390) ≈ 5390. Therefore, there is still room and possibility for the cost of the real estate industry to fall. Due to the continuous sharp rise in house prices in the past two years, the state has strengthened a series of provisions to control its rising index, and it has indeed seen the effect. However, the national policy can only control the rise of some high-priced houses, but it can't completely affect those low-priced houses, so low-priced houses will inevitably rise, and because it is an economic society and the economy has improved, everything will inevitably rise. But now the national policy can only control the highest point, so it is better to borrow money to buy a house now, because the higher the economic level, the higher the low-priced house prices will definitely rise. Now that the state is controlling housing prices, the increase will not decrease. Einstein said: I never care about the future, because the future comes too fast. Do you want to buy a house in four years? Four years later, it dropped to 50% now. It is said that house prices will not rise sharply in recent years, so if you want to buy a house, it is better to buy it now. No one knows what the future will be like, let alone the ups and downs of the house. Anyway, the house is cheap now, so it's better to buy it first.

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