How many J-20s does the PLA need at present? The result depends on our national defense policy.

J-20 is the most advanced fighter in China and one of the few fourth-generation fighters in the world. After the official announcement of the service of the J-20, the focus of countless Chinese people gathered on this star fighter. However, it has been two years since the official service of the J-20, but there are only a handful of them, only 10. This figure is difficult for many people to understand, but in fact, it is the embodiment of strategic thinking.

Many military fans believe that China needs more J-20s to break the deadlock in the face of the US-led multinational military blockade. Let's take the F-22 and F-35 fighters as examples, regardless of the third-generation fighters and the third-generation semi-fighters. The total number of F-22 fighters in the United States is 170- 180, and the number of F-35s will exceed 300 in the future. F-35 fighters purchased by Japan, South Korea and other countries will pose a direct threat to us. In this threatening state, quite a few people think that China needs to give its neighboring countries a numerical advantage, and the conclusion is 500. This conclusion is ridiculous both in thought and in action. China's national defense policy and economic and technological development will never support so many advanced fourth-generation aircraft.

First of all, we need to clarify the specific role of the J-20 fighter. As a stealth fighter, the J-20 has the greatest advantage over the American F-22 in terms of higher fuel load and lower cruise fuel consumption. Compared with the F-22' s voyage of only 750 kilometers without refueling, the combat radius of the J-20 is as high as 2,200 kilometers. At the same time, in terms of attack envelope and maneuverability, the J-20 with higher lift design is not worse than the J-22 with F-119-PW-100 vector engine, or even worse.

Therefore, in terms of tactical application, the J-20 is more like a stealth assassin in the game. Using its stealth and high-range advantages, it breaks through the enemy's three-dimensional air defense network and carries out "assassination" attacks on important enemy air targets such as tankers and early warning aircraft. In addition, the J-20 can also carry ground-to-ground weapons and attack local ground air defense forces and command centers in clusters. This is similar to the preemptive effect of the US military F- 1 17 in the Gulf War.

In cluster air-to-air combat, J-20 can be combined with J-16 fighter-bomber formation because of its strong guiding strike capability. Guided by the data of J-20, J-16 launched long-range and medium-range air-to-air bombs outside the defense zone, effectively attacking enemy fighter clusters. In the whole process, the J-20 doesn't need to move or even open the missile magazine except that it needs to lock multiple targets in the air with radar and use the data link module for guidance.

Secondly, we need to objectively understand the single-machine combat capability of the J-20 fighter. 歼 -20 is an incomplete fourth-generation fighter, and a considerable part of the initial design indicators have not been completed even now. The most important point is that WS- 15, which has vector propulsion capability, failed to complete the engineering finalization. At present, the air force's active J-20 fighters still use AL-3 1F engines and WS- 10B engines. Although the possibility of using AL-4 1F engine in the future is not ruled out, it is conservatively estimated that the PLA will not mass-produce an incomplete version of the J-20 fighter until the J-20 is replaced with WS- 15 to become the J -20A.

Many military fans believe that only the fourth-generation fighters can achieve the same level of confrontation capability as the fourth-generation fighters, but in fact, no matter whether it is the J-20 or the American F-22 or F-35, these fighters do not have enough combat capability of the same generation. The reason is simple, although both J-20 and F-22 are equipped with the most advanced active phased array radar and EOTS infrared system. However, neither the active phased array radar nor the EOTS system can find the other fighters beyond the line of sight. The only thing that can be found is the short-sighted distance, and at this distance, the possibility of air combat between the two sides is very small. In the event of an encounter, the two sides are most likely to notify each other of their vigilance, call the ground radar air defense system or the warship air defense system with real anti-stealth fighter capability, and then do their own work. As for air combat and dog fighting, let them go to the third generation, and the fourth generation is very busy.

Finally, we need to understand the role of the J-20 in the Air Force and the most critical cost-effectiveness ratio. For the air force, the biggest role of the J-20 is to open the door to the fourth-generation fighter. When we really have the J-20 and actually use it in the exercise, we think that we have touched the threshold of the fourth-generation modern air force. The influence of the fourth generation aircraft on the tactics of the Air Force is no less than that of 1993, when the American Gulf War affected the Chinese Army. It used to be said that the J-8 pile killed the F-22, which made people laugh and cry.

For the air force, the main task of the J-20 for a long time is to find out the tactics of the fourth-generation aircraft as soon as possible, as well as the air force's system strike and air-ground integrated combat system. Therefore, in a sense, the J-20 is more like a "blue army" that defeated the third-generation aircraft, and gradually understands the fourth-generation aircraft and the modern air force system in constant confrontation and running-in.

An important problem that restricts the production of J-20 is the manufacturing cost and maintenance cost. According to the lowest online estimate, the cost of a J-20 is about $654.38+600 million to $200 million. Without considering the overhaul, the annual maintenance cost is nearly $6,543,800+million. And this cost is more than 5- 10 times that of the conventional third-generation heavy fighter. For the air force with insufficient military expenditure and immature system, instead of using those military expenditures to buy more J-20s, it is better to replace all the completely outdated J-7J-8s with advanced three-generation fighters (don't cry for poverty to the people all over the country).

So the number of J-20 really doesn't need much. We have always pursued the national defense policy of homeland defense, which is essentially different from the expansionary national defense policy pursued by the US military. The J -20 is more responsible for the task of attacking the enemy and the key strike tasks in some areas. Therefore, China does not need a huge number to support the air pressure in the expansion area. Judging from the current air force establishment, the number of J-20 s is most likely to be five squadrons, mainly distributed according to five theaters. In addition to these five squadrons, there may be another squadron as an experimental unit for air force tactical research. So for a long time, the target number of J-20 should be about 4x6=24.