Explanation of Elephant Thinking: What will happen if house prices fall?

The housing crisis tests the foresight and courage of policymakers! I once saw a message from the Internet: Faced with high housing prices, many people hope that housing prices can drop significantly in a short period of time, but it is basically impossible under the current policy situation. Therefore, low-income people are even more looking forward to the continued rise in housing prices. Anyway, it has nothing to do with them when the housing market normalizes. Even if the current housing prices drop by 50%, they may never be able to buy a house. Only by hoping for something unexpected to happen in the property market can you get a big bargain. If housing prices continue to rise, and the sky is dark, and the sun and the moon are dim, then the real estate market bubble will "pop", causing those real estate speculators to go bankrupt and lose their homes. They may also find some excitement in the ruins after the war is extinguished, and learn Ah Q's spiritual victory method. Although it is a joke, it seems that letting house prices fall has become the common wish of the majority of people. So what happens if house prices fall? Can I buy a house if house prices fall? After housing prices fall, there are two possibilities: One possibility is that the supply of houses exceeds demand and cheaper houses are more popular. However, the real estate market profits are small and the risks are high, which will make the market inactive and developers are no longer keen on acquiring land. , building houses, which leads to product shortages in the market and no more houses for sale; the other is that due to excessive demand for houses, housing prices rise rapidly, houses are still in demand, and most people still cannot afford to buy a house. . Neither of these possibilities will make housing affordable for more people, which is obviously not the core of solving the housing problem. Elephant believes that if housing prices fall, the majority of people across the country, especially low-income people, will suffer. The decline in house prices is not simply a matter of house prices themselves, but a problem of the entire national economy. Falling housing prices often mean economic downturn, lower national income, slow economic development, credit crunch, and increased financial risks. Will there be a situation where house prices fall, the entire national economy prospers, and the employment and income of low-income people increase? As house prices fall, fewer people may be able to afford a house. Housing prices are rising. If those who can afford houses are allowed to buy houses that continue to rise, it will become a factor in economic prosperity. Only then will fiscal revenue increase, more public welfare undertakings will benefit low-income people, and only then will the economy be prosperous. More job opportunities will give low-income people a chance to improve their economic conditions. Besides, the first generation of "only children" unique to our country are now at the age of marriage, so it is certain that housing prices will be temporarily inflated. But in 10 or 20 years, housing in most cities in China will be difficult to rent, let alone sell. According to relevant statistics, if calculated based on the current national housing construction speed and population growth rate, the per capita real estate area in cities will reach 70 square meters in 20 years. Therefore, the current housing prices do not necessarily have to come down. The key is how to scientifically and rationally solve the housing problem of low-income groups, which is also one of the ways and measures to eliminate the disharmony in Chinese society. Land control and financial control, the two main factors that affect housing prices, are all in the hands of the state, so the eve of the housing market collapse is actually very, very far away from us. The fluctuation of house prices is an economic problem, and the affordability of citizens is a social problem. However, the housing problem is related to people's livelihood, economic development, social harmony, and our governing philosophy and administrative philosophy in the new era and new stage. Therefore, it is also a political issue. question. House prices continue to rise, and public dissatisfaction is growing. Regulating property market prices hurts the economy; letting prices go unchecked hurts public sentiment. Therefore, housing issues such as difficulty in going to school, difficulty in seeing a doctor, difficulty in finding a job, etc. are not simply education, medical or employment issues. The housing issue has been elevated to a political issue, so the government cannot do nothing; the housing crisis tests the vision and courage of policymakers! Elephant Essay. (Taken from "Jinqiao Renjia", a national classic residential development developed by Commodity City Group)