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Will 20 17 be the most turbulent buying tide since 1949?

Looking back on the 20 16 real estate market, the biggest repetition is undoubtedly that the real estate destocking policy decided at the beginning of the year returned to the old road of "restricting purchases" and "restricting loans" in the fourth quarter. Under the wind of austerity policy, how will the real estate market in China go in 20 17?

Through two short stories,

We can get a glimpse of the real estate market in China this year.

Characteristics of Ice and Fire

On June 1 day and March 1 day, the Shenyang municipal government of Liaoning province issued a new real estate policy, which shocked the outside world: college graduates can enjoy the "zero down payment" policy when buying a house in Shenyang. This struggling northeastern city has fallen into a destocking cycle of more than two years and is in despair. As a result, the New Deal lasted only eight hours and became a joke.

Shenyang is not a fighting city. Behind this northeastern city are hundreds of small and medium-sized cities in China that are mired in destocking.

2. In September, on the day of the sale of a property of a real estate company in Hangzhou, the house-snatchers scrambled and even knocked down the door. Some people describe it as "crazy as a zombie". The following scene, I believe everyone will not feel strange.

In 20 16, in the second-tier star cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Nanjing, we witnessed the avalanche-like housing price rise, just like a relay race, with Shanghai and Shenzhen taking the lead, followed by Xiamen, Suzhou and Hefei, followed by Wuxi, Jiaxing, Zhongshan and Huizhou, until more than a dozen cities took control together during the National Day, 2008.10000000000005

Just like four years ago, after the regulation of a heavy rain, the visible hand and the invisible hand were caught in a confrontation, and no one dared to make a move. This is what we are seeing now.

What the outside world is most concerned about now is how to get to the 20 17 property market. 20 17 "The house is for living, not for speculation" Is it a promise or empty talk? 20 17 will the myth of "going north and deep, house prices will rise forever" continue to be fulfilled or shattered? The RMB exchange rate is close at hand, and the depreciation can't stop. Is it a blessing or a curse to the property market?

0 1, internal differentiation of third-and fourth-tier cities

20 16 property market, the differentiation mainly exists between first-and second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities, the former is hot and the latter is depressed; In 20 17 years, the differentiation will continue, only in the third-and fourth-tier cities.

At the end of the year, the Central Economic Work Conference said that next year, efforts should be made to solve the problem of excessive real estate inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities. It can be said that the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities has ushered in an opportunity for development.

If the prosperity of the property market in 20 16 first-tier cities benefits from the capital dividend, then the policy dividend will be the driving force for the destocking of small and medium-sized cities next year.

After the Central Economic Work Conference, high-level think tanks did not forget to make suggestions for selling houses in third-and fourth-tier cities when interpreting the conference. Wang Yiming, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, said, "Encourage agricultural migrants to buy commercial housing in third-and fourth-tier cities", and Pan Shengzhou, deputy director of the Central Policy Research Office, suggested "setting up residential policy banks in third-and fourth-tier cities".

We should know that in the characteristic market environment of China, when tangible people are determined to destock, it is generally a signal of rising prices: the prices of steel, coal and cement are rising all the way at 20 16, all of which are related to the "destock" promoted from top to bottom.

However, not all small and medium-sized cities have a chance to be winners. If the industry is depressed and the population continues to flow out, such a city belongs to a bucket that can't be helped, and the government can't slap it; Only those small and medium-sized cities where pillar industries are still competitive and young people are willing to stay have stories to tell.

The "differentiation effect" will further ferment, and may even be the last ticket for third-and fourth-tier cities.

According to the 20 16 National Urban Youth Index Report, the top five cities in the youth index of third-tier cities are Liuzhou, Guangxi, Guiyang, Guizhou, Jinhua, Zhejiang, Changde, Hunan and Yancheng, Jiangsu. The top five cities in the fourth-tier cities are Kaifeng in Henan, Zhuzhou in Hunan, Leshan in Sichuan, Chenzhou in Hunan and Deyang in Sichuan. Population mobility and economic rise and fall are * * * vibrations, and these cities are more likely to be winners of 20 17.

In addition, third-and fourth-tier cities around Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may also be beneficiaries. Langfang in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, Nantong and Jiaxing in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area, Huizhou and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area are important nodes in the metropolitan area strategy. They are not far from core talents, funds and data, and their development is quite imaginative. Real estate developers also have stories to tell.

02, the first half and the second half of the differentiation.

Real estate is still the pillar industry of China's economy. Behind the economic differentiation is the regional differentiation of property prices, and the surge of regulatory policies in June 5438+ 10 is also related to the highly leveraged financial risks. Therefore, whether the policy will tighten or relax the throat of the real estate industry ultimately depends on economic development and local financial situation.

In the first three quarters of 20 16, the contribution rate of real estate to economic growth was 8.02%, which was at an all-time high. Southwest Securities even pointed out that considering many industries in the upstream and downstream, the actual contribution rate of real estate to economic growth is as high as 20%-30%. In the first three quarters, there was no cliff-like decline in China's economy, and real estate actually contributed.

However, after the strictest regulation in the history of 5438+ 10 in June, there is still suspense about what impact the slowdown in real estate investment will bring to China's economy. After all, in165438+1October, the growth rate of national housing sales area and sales amount was lower than that in1October, by 18.5 percentage points and 26.9 percentage points respectively, just like a heavy punch.

20 17, no one knows whether China's economy, which shoulders the arduous task of "maintaining growth", can take this powerful medicine. Once the "GDP effect" breaks out, its influence is amazing.

UBS Securities recently reminded in a report: "It is estimated that the growth rate of new real estate starts will slow down to 0-2% in 20 17, and the growth rate of real estate investment will drop from about 6% this year to a lower level. The downward pressure brought by real estate adjustment will slow down the growth rate of real GDP. "

If China's economy can't be stabilized by new kinetic energy and infrastructure in the first half of the year, it won't be ruled out that some cities will loosen their control measures in the second half of the year.

At present, Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have the strongest regulation, while Suzhou, Wuxi, Tianjin, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Wuhan and Zhuhai are slightly weaker. If the restrictions on purchases and loans are loosened, we will start from a relatively weak place. The fastest, maybe in the second half of the year.

03. The heat of "haze-avoiding cities" has increased.

For northerners, almost every year in 65438+February, they will encounter a nightmare disaster-smog. Smog is driving people away: some asthmatic pupils go to Guangzhou and Shenzhen to study, some retired people fly to Hainan Island for vacation, and some people and their wives go to Zhangjiakou to worship and wash their lungs.

According to the hotel data of Ctrip. In the worst week of smog, the total number of hotel reservations related to the "avoid smog" label nearly tripled compared with last week. Beijingers love Sanya and Xiamen best, and hotel bookings in Sanya, Lijiang and Xiamen increased by more than 80% year-on-year.

The smog has come year after year, and we can't slack off in defending our lives. When people pay more attention to health, the greater the motivation to escape from smog. Thousands of northerners go to Hainan to see houses and buy houses every year. An important reason is the good air in Hainan.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-02- 18. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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