How did the conflict between Israel and Lebanon arise?

The "first cause" of the Lebanon war was that Hezbollah attacked Israel across the border and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, which triggered a large-scale military retaliation by Israel. But there is often no such simple causal relationship in the world.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is determined to act.

Hariri's assassination led to Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon, which supported Hezbollah, and the establishment of a pro-Western Lebanese government. Although Hizbullah still has the ability to influence the government in parliament, it prefers to redistribute power. The current situation also proves that under the background of Hizbullah's adventurism, the Lebanese government and army are almost powerless, and the Beirut government has been put aside. Objectively speaking, Hizbullah not only supported its troops in southern Lebanon, but also became a state within a state and a seat in the parliament, which also made the Beirut government lack the focus of persuasion. On the other hand, the stalemate between Palestine and Israel forced Israel to open a "second front", which was also echoed by Hamas.

Israel's military plan also seems to be beside the point.

Now, this rescue operation has rapidly escalated into a battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since Hizbullah has always been regarded as a thorn in Israel's side, and the UN resolution to disarm Hizbullah is difficult to implement, Israel still hopes to take this opportunity to "drive Hizbullah out of the border areas" and replace it with another force, although it is not easy.

If military strength can simply determine the outcome, then Hezbollah's strength of more than10,000 is far from being Israel's opponent. However, don't forget that the Middle East issue has always been complicated. In addition to Israel's continued military actions, it may cause resistance in the Islamic world, and behind both Lebanon and Israel, there are also the shadows of foreign forces that cannot be shaken off.

If traced back to the source, Hezbollah in Lebanon has had a good interactive relationship with Iran since the establishment of 1982. Its birth was not only supported by Iran's supreme leader Khomeini, but also by Muslim Shiites. It has the same value orientation as Iran-opposing Israel and advocating imitating the Iranian model and establishing an Islamic Republic in Lebanon. Objectively speaking, Iran is now facing increasing pressure from the West on the nuclear issue, and the emergence of new regional hotspots can naturally ease its pressure and increase its bargaining chips.

As an important influence on Israel, the United States is not putting enough pressure on Israel at present. Although the United States calls on Israel to exercise restraint, it still emphasizes the right to self-defense. Of course, the Iraqi dilemma, the Iranian nuclear issue and the North Korean missile issue have kept the United States a little overwhelmed, but why not let Israel defeat Hamas or Hezbollah, which it has always regarded as a "terrorist organization", weaken or even destroy their strength and share the pressure for them?

In this way, Hezbollah will not stop easily, and Israel will fight again. If ground troops are involved in cross-border attacks, the situation may further expand. Professor Zhu Weilie, a famous expert on Middle East issues, also said that although this is not a war, the situation in the region is in danger of getting out of control. At present, compared with the Lebanese war, there may be more room for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to turn around. At least Abbas is an Israeli-recognized negotiating partner.