Lin Yan: The "market value" of new car-making forces is a joke

Introduction The combined sales of all NIO’s current models are not as high as the sales of one of BMW’s models.

Since this year, new energy vehicles have performed strongly in the capital market. Tesla and NIO have become the market capitalization leaders in this smart electric vehicle sector, while Lideal and Xpeng, also from China, have also performed well.

Unexpectedly, on November 23, the U.S. stock market experienced another surge. Tesla’s stock price rose by 6.51%, NIO’s stock price rose by 12.45%, and Xpeng Motors’ stock price rose by 33.92%, which was huge. The gains gave these three electric vehicle companies unprecedented market capitalization and status.

Tesla’s latest market value ranks first, which is already about 2.5 times that of second-placed Toyota Motor, reaching US$494.32 billion.

The closing prices of Ideal, Xpeng and NIO that day were US$43.64/share, US$72.170/share, and US$55.38/share respectively, corresponding to market values ??of US$36.498 billion, US$50.104 billion, and US$75.287 billion respectively. The combined market value of NIO, Xpeng and Lideal reaches more than US$111 billion, exceeding the combined value of General Motors and Ford Motor Company.

Of the other Chinese companies on the list, SAIC Motor Group became one of the few companies to fall. Although Geely Automobile rose, it only increased by 1.3%, while Changan Automobile rose by 6.8%.

A few days ago, Xpeng, Ideal and NIO successively released their third-quarter financial reports, and their fundamentals have improved. The gross profit margins of the three companies have all turned positive, with Li Auto's sales gross profit margins at 19.8% and NIO at 14.5%. And all three car companies said they have sufficient cash reserves. NIO’s cash reserves amount to 22.274 billion yuan, while Lideal and Xpeng have close to 20 billion yuan.

In terms of sales, NIO’s cumulative sales in the first 10 months exceeded 30,000 vehicles, Ideal’s exceeded 20,000 vehicles, and Xiaopeng’s was close to 20,000 vehicles.

Bloomberg predicts that as the prospects of electric vehicles in the Chinese market continue to be optimistic, investors will still place large bets on the leading companies in China's new car manufacturing industry despite increasingly fierce competition in this field.

In addition to the aforementioned Tesla, Bloomberg also believes that Weilai’s potential opponents also include BYD and Great Wall Motors, which are also optimistic about the capital market.

In the international market, traditional automobile giants such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler, General Motors, BMW, Ferrari, as well as Honda, Hyundai, Ford, etc. are accelerating electrification transformation. In China, SAIC Group's new energy vehicle sales replaced Tesla as the new energy vehicle sales champion in October.

Data show that China’s new energy vehicle sales champion in October was GM-Wuling, a subsidiary of SAIC Motor, with 29,711 units sold. The second place was BYD, with 22,395 units sold. The fourth-place Tesla sold 12,143 vehicles in October. NIO delivered 5,055 vehicles in October, doubling year-on-year. This is also the first time NIO has exceeded 5,000 vehicles per month.

The popularity of the electric vehicle industry is unprecedentedly high, and the capital market is in a state of carnival. It has reached an abnormal state defined by Lin Yan as "no electric vehicles, no car companies." In the context of electrification, it is natural for traditional car companies to be impacted.

Lin Yan believes that the current "moisture" of new car-making forces certainly has its survival necessity and value, and its market value is so high that it far exceeds that of traditional car companies. It seems like a "myth", but in fact it is not. It’s just a “plaything” in the hands of the capital market. In other words, there are constant short-term highs but no lasting value. In the long run, such product companies remain to be seen. After all, the uncertainty of the capital market has destined new car-making forces to pay more attention to short-term "explosive" growth in order to stimulate the capital market to feed themselves back, thereby achieving a greater snowball effect. .

When things go wrong, there must be a "demon". The operating costs of the automotive industry are extremely high, requiring a large and stable supply chain, as well as a large amount of R&D expenses and marketing expenses. Compared with traditional car companies, new car-making companies do not have a huge system and strong funds accumulated over a long history. That is to say, their self-production capabilities are seriously insufficient. Every difficulty requires huge research and development expenses, including the development of Competitive pure electric platform, driverless technology, electrical architecture, etc.

Looking back at the new domestic car manufacturers, is the market value of the cars incredibly high? The combined sales of all NIO's current models are not as high as the sales of one of BMW's models. Why does it have such a high market value? Are electric vehicle concept stocks really so magical?

Lin Yan really couldn't understand this, and I believe many people couldn't understand the logic.

(Written at the end: All data and information mentioned in this article come from public channels on the Internet. The opinions of all media and self-media are quoted in the article and do not represent the position of Lin Yan Automobile.)

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.