What exactly was the Internet bubble in the United States in 2000?

It is true that the development of the Internet is too fast, too magical, and too exciting, beyond the scope of human understanding, so using the word "bubble" to describe it is naturally the safest and most appropriate. However, the Internet itself seems to contain endless connotations that far exceed our current wildest estimates and predictions. Therefore, when you look at the Internet, it is different whether you look left or right, and you will make new discoveries every once in a while. Likewise, our view of the dot-com bubble must evolve over time. Human thinking also needs to adjust its speed and frequency from time to time, even though it is the most inert thing in the world. Looking at the Internet statically and unchangingly will inevitably become a joke, and sometimes you even need to constantly deny yourself. For example, a year ago, I strongly agreed with the Internet bubble. Half a year ago, I became half-convinced. Now I believe even more firmly that the Internet is not a simple bubble. Although the Internet field is ups and downs, one after another, it is quite suspected of being a bubble.

In 1720, the British South Sea Company and the French Mississippi Company used the securities market to drive up stock prices and commit financial fraud, causing the stock market to plummet and causing millions of people to go bankrupt. The situation is like the inflating and bursting of bubbles, known in history as "Economic Bubbles". Hence the name "Bubb le Economy". Then this excessive speculation and bubble bursting, or "fanatical speculation-panic selling- There are endless financial dramas of "market collapse". Since the Asian financial crisis, the word "bubble" has become fashionable, and when combined with the "Internet", it has reached a higher level.

The formation of bubbles is naturally caused by fanaticism and excess. The result of speculation. When the bubble exceeds a certain limit and becomes out of control, it will burst. The bubble in the Internet is certain. The key to the question is whether the bubble is reasonable, whether it is benign, and whether it will explode. It must be understood that the basic core of the development of the Internet is not technology, or even capital, but users. If the Internet is a bubble, then when the bubble bursts, it will be the time when users withdraw, that is, when investors withdraw. How?

We can hear people complaining about the Internet every day, such as tariffs, speed, content, time, etc. But what we see is: we rarely see a person online. They will decide not to go online anymore due to various dissatisfaction, and will never look back; we rarely see a person who uses e-mail saying that it is expensive and will never send e-mail again. In fact, as long as it is. Once a person is on the Internet, he is basically stuck with it. Internet applications are also inseparable. And it is unlikely that many users will withdraw from the Internet one day, because the Internet has a kind of gravity and charm that we have now. It's hard to explain. Free email, search engines, news content, instant download software, all kinds of information, and emerging e-commerce, etc., are not likely to have similar experiences in the real world. Therefore, many of the values ??created by the Internet. (Intangible and tangible) cannot be replaced by the physical world, and even if it is replaced, it is of great value. Otherwise, it is not enough to explain the current attraction of the Internet. After all, everyone is not forced to go online. Everything on the Internet is improving rapidly, the services are getting better and better, the use is more convenient, the content is becoming more and more abundant, and new things are more dazzling. The attraction and charm will naturally be further enhanced, and the speed of new netizens joining the Internet has not slowed down at all. Users make up the most solid content of the Internet bubble. As long as users continue to increase, the Internet bubble is unlikely to burst quickly.

Many people are worried that the Internet will exhaust investment at a burning rate. But if we take a broader view, the capital market is an internal circulation system, not an isolated black hole. The investment flowing into the Internet will inevitably be reflected in consumption, and the money will flow back through various channels. Capital market. Moreover, Internet investment is dominated by retail investors, which makes the source of funds more stable. Moreover, the performance of the Internet industry is improving, and the company's operating conditions are improving. Of course, the overall trend has not disappointed investors. The flow of capital is selective. If more capital flows into the Internet, less capital will flow into other industries.

Fortunately, the flow of the capital market is determined by attention and market development. At present, apart from the Internet, who else can compete with the global investment focus? Besides the Internet market, who else could I choose as the busiest and craziest market? Yes, investors are investing in a dream, but what dream is bigger and more real than the Internet?

Of course, the Internet is currently a destructive force. Just like the accelerated metabolism, there will inevitably be batches of companies that cannot keep up with the trend, and batches of more spectacular novices will rush forward. superior. From a single enterprise perspective and from a local perspective, we can indeed feel the violent emergence and bursting of bubbles, but from an overall perspective, there must be continuous growth. This trend is the key to understanding the nature of the Internet.

Netscape was acquired, Microsoft lost billions of wasted money, and Wired also relied on others... These tragic stories seem to be the best evidence of the bursting of the bubble. But in reality, the worst losers benefit more from being at the forefront of the Internet than the lagging winners. The final sale price of Netscape was US$10 billion. Think about it, if it was not the Internet, but just a browser product, would it be sold for such a high price? Which of the founders of Netscape doesn't have a lot of money? . And if Microsoft didn't have so much "waste", it's very likely that there would be no room for survival today? Not to mention a market value of US$500 billion. There will inevitably be more and more myths about people who get rich overnight on the Internet, but as more and more contestants participate, the concentration and degree of sudden wealth will be further balanced. Some stocks will fluctuate violently and their prices will fall sharply, but the overall market value of the Internet will inevitably surge with the rapid increase in users.

Instead of worrying about the Internet bubble, it is better to move forward courageously. Instead of doubting the reality of the Internet, it is better to firmly believe in it. Because in this revolution, the only chance of victory is to catch the limelight. Although the risks and difficulties are extremely high, those who doubt, curse, and stick to their will will gain nothing.

Because the Internet is not just a technology, not just an application, not even just a technological change, but a real technological revolution, which will correspond to a brand-new Civilization, a whole new world.