Attack on pearl harbor: why a group of sensible people went crazy collectively

Attack on Pearl Harbor: Why a group of sensible people went crazy collectively

On December 7, 1941, Japanese troops attacked Pearl Harbor.

tactically, the Japanese have achieved great success, but strategically, they committed suicide. Being deeply involved in the China war zone and making enemies with the United States at the same time, the decision-making is so irrational that it can be called madness.

Japanese politicians at that time were really a bunch of lunatics?

Takeda's book "Japan's fiasco" outlines the decision-making process of "attacking Pearl Harbor", showing how rationality is swallowed up-everyone is sensible, but no one dares to say no, and they all expect others to stand up and agree with them, which eventually leads to a collective disaster.

Facts have proved that decision-making mistakes are not only the problem of the top decision-maker, but also the problem of decision-making mechanism. When the high-level interests are separated from the bottom interests, madness and stupidity are inevitable.

Kick the ball to tojo hideki

On October 16th, 1941, Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe announced his resignation. The next day, the Emperor summoned tojo hideki and appointed him as Prime Minister, which surprised Tojo.

In the Cabinet of Guards, tojo hideki, the land minister, is a headache. He advocates being tough on the United States. In the decision-making circle, everyone knows that Tojo is talking nonsense. Even if he fights the United States, it depends on the navy, not the army, and Japan cannot win.

it is estimated that at that time, American oil output was more than 5 times that of Japan, pig iron was 2 times, copper was 9 times and aluminum was 7 times, and the average industrial output of the United States was more than 74 times that of Japan. If war breaks out, Japan will lose 1.4 million tons of warships annually, far exceeding its replenishment capacity. By the third year, all civilian ships will disappear.

Fumimaro Konoe was born in a noble family, and he hesitated to do things, always trying to please all parties. However, the army and navy are desperately torturing the guards in order to grab resources. tojo hideki's unique trick is to play "anti-American" cards frequently.

In the militaristic atmosphere, "anti-Americanism" equals "patriotism", which has natural moral legitimacy, which is more appealing than logic. Middle-level officers mostly support Tojo. They came from humble origins and climbed up by their own efforts. Before the ceiling of promotion, they felt that the high-level officials were a group of capitulationists and should all step down so that they could do their best.

After the Meiji Restoration, assassinations and coups by army soldiers were painted with tragic colors. Therefore, people in the decision-making circle were afraid of being misunderstood by angry youths, and no one dared to speak out against the war. Under tojo hideki's aggressive push, Fumimaro Konoe had to delay, but Tojo came up with a unique trick: setting the last time to solve the problem.

In the countdown, Fumimaro Konoe simply quit.

The appointment of tojo hideki as Prime Minister actually contains malice: Come and taste the taste of Fumimaro Konoe. Do you really dare to go to war with the Americans?

The chance of peace was so missed.

He was puzzled to put tojo hideki in the position of prime minister. Of course, he understood that going to war with the United States was a death wish, but he always had to give an account of the awesome power he boasted in those years.

The trouble originated from the "July 7th Incident". The Japanese army thought it would win the war against China in a few months, but unexpectedly it was deeply involved, resulting in a shortage of material resources and human resources. Even the iron bars of the palace were removed and sent to the steelmaking furnace.

The best way to escape the accusation is to take the initiative to attack. The army has a radical idea: to attack Southeast Asia. There are rubber and tin in Southeast Asia, which can threaten the Dutch East Indies to provide oil, and at the same time cut off China's material supply line, forcing Chiang Kai-shek to surrender.

But it is a colony of great powers, and the United States can't sit idly by. Sure enough, as soon as the Japanese army took its first steps, the United States ordered an oil embargo, and Japan fell into a panic. The reserve of oil was only enough for one year and it could only yield to the United States as soon as possible.

In fact, the United States also intends to make peace with Japan. At this time, Roosevelt was determined to go to war with Germany. He didn't want to go to war with Japan at the same time. He was willing to give up tangible benefits and keep the moral high ground. However, tojo hideki needs more face to ensure that his "anti-American" performance doesn't fail. In the treaty, he set too many complicated words and refused to budge on the fur issue.

In fact, the United States proposed a substantial concession plan, but the Japanese didn't understand it. In the last days, the Japanese also proposed a concession plan, but the Americans couldn't understand it.

until the moment when the Japanese military plane took off, it was still possible for the United States and Japan to reach peace. If there was no countdown, Japanese diplomats could have played their role. Roosevelt even told them that "there is always room for negotiation between friends", but Laiqi, who was in charge of the final mediation, knew that there was no time. Similarly, if we can compromise on face, Japan will reap real benefits, but how can we explain it to the patriots? Both "lining" and "face" are needed, and all the results are lost.

why didn't anyone step on the brakes

in the process of rushing to war, Japan has several forces to step on the brakes.

First of all, Emperor Hirohito, who was an anti-war faction, was assassinated. Facing the war motion, his series of rhetorical questions stunned the generals, but since the Meiji Restoration, no emperor had ever vetoed the cabinet's opinions, and he finally chose to give in.

followed by the navy. Isoroku Yamamoto is a staunch anti-war faction, but he didn't have the courage to oppose his superiors, but he offered to "fight first if you want to win". In opposing wrong decisions, he did not work as hard as he did in preparing for war. At the cabinet meeting that decided to go to war, the navy actually reduced the forecast data of warships with an estimated annual loss of 1.4 million tons by 5%, making Japan's shipbuilding capacity enough to make up for the losses. The person in charge explained that the emperor would veto it anyway.

thirdly, tojo hideki, who is "anti-American" for canvassing votes, may not be from his heart, but when he is in full power, all parties send good news. The perfect and bold "attack on Pearl Harbor" is on the table. Can he deny it? Then he will lose his political foundation. He kidnapped Japan with slogans, but the slogans also kidnapped him.

Fourth, Japanese diplomats, Laiqi, Nomura, etc. have excellent reputation in the international community. They know the world and are determined anti-war, but they are cautious, preferring the ship to sink, and they will never take the initiative as long as they don't drown themselves first.

Japanese liberals became a decoration

At that time, there were still liberals in Japan who resolutely opposed the war, but there were no people in the DPRK and few people who should make peace.

During Taisho (the father of Emperor Hirohito), liberals once dominated the political situation, bringing an unprecedented atmosphere of freedom, but they encountered a sharp increase in hostility. Japan's economy is growing at a high speed, and all levels of society are changing rapidly, but the upper level is relatively closed, which makes everyone feel that their interests have been deprived.

With resentment and lack of political expression space, xenophobia has become the best outlet for resentment. With the help of education and media, "patriotism" is the only one. Through this distorted mirror, people can see a perfect Japan. In the face of all kinds of disappointments in reality, the Japanese people have shifted the responsibility to "traitors" and liberals who advocate western ideas have become the target of public criticism.

Fumimaro Konoe was hand-picked by Saionji Kinmochi, a liberal tycoon, but saionji himself was almost killed in the coup. In his later years, his views with the guards became more and more different, and he even stopped seeing each other.

Both of them are anti-war, but based on the strength analysis, the Guards believe that the war will be lost, while saionji is opposed to giving up moral principles for its own interests based on the values of "there are human beings above all nations".

Facts have proved that saionji had foresight. In the decision-making process of "attacking Pearl Harbor", no high-ranking figures raised any objection from a moral standpoint. They were all complete utilitarians without moral height, and it was easy to form a criminal alliance by greed.

It is worth reflecting on why saionji's liberalism has no market in Japan. This is indeed the responsibility of ideological tradition and cultural tradition.

Why do similar disasters keep repeating

When all the feet don't step on the brakes, the ending can be imagined. In fact, such tragedies are by no means individual cases in the modern East, but occur repeatedly. From this book, we can easily draw four lessons:

First of all, the latecomers are both advantages and disadvantages:

The latecomers learn from others to reduce the "trial and error cost" for "trial and error cost". It can enter the stalemate stage, and there will be a "late disadvantage": on the one hand, without trial and error, society lacks training and cannot resolve the collective impetuous mentality brought about by rapid growth. On the other hand, latecomers naturally have a sense of direction, just follow the strong, but once they are flat or ahead, problems will arise, because their development is not endogenous, but imitation, which is obtained by "comparing with others". Once the object of comparison disappears, it may go blind.

Blindness and impetuousness will inevitably ignore the universality and revel in the particularity of self, which will lead to disaster.

Second, we should be wary of nationalism kidnapping society:

Nationalism is a beautiful emotion and a worthy pursuit of value, but political ideals should keep a certain distance from society. Social life is rich and diverse and cannot be measured by political standards.

The evolution of all things is a process of constant differentiation, so is human beings. The separation of politics and society is the general trend and the only way to enter modernization. Sticking to the chaotic state that does not distinguish each other will not only constrain the overall progress, but also cause historical retrogression.

Political standards are often sacred, which can give people a sense of existence and passion, thus forgetting the mediocrity and frustration of reality. Middle-level officers are an important thrust for Japan to go to war. Because of the system cover, they can't see the whole truth, and they are particularly easy to be deceived by myths and passions. If high-level officials think that they can unite the middle level and grasp more resources by creating myths and sensationalism, it is a big mistake. Although cattle often wag their tails in the biological world, they are in power.

Third, it is better for someone to object than no one to brake:

Although history cannot be assumed, if Laiqi and Nomura can make decisive concessions to the United States regardless of everything, will the result change?

However, under the bayonet of autocracy, the brave have long been sacrificed, and the rest are exquisite egoists, who have only instrumental value, and human dignity and emotion have been completely castrated. Just as Isoroku Yamamoto opposes suicide submarines, but they are still used in actual combat, expressing dissent is the highest proof of human nature. How can such people fight against authoritarianism?

the characteristic of autocracy is that it does not accept the opposition, and then it becomes the elimination of the opponents, then the opposition voices, and finally the disapproval voices. The lack of "loyal opponents" in a society will only increase the number of "disloyal approvers", forcing people to shout greatness every day, which is to train courtiers in batches, but where can courtiers step on the brakes?

Fourth, be wary of moving from mistakes to bigger mistakes

Japan originally had enough opportunities to repair its mistakes. Since it was dragged down by the war of aggression against China, withdrawing troops meant that it didn't get what it wanted, but at least it didn't have to pay the price.

However, in an authoritarian society, high-level power lacks legitimacy, and it can only play the role of omniscient and omnipotent, so it can never make any mistakes. When everyone sees that he has made mistakes, he can only cover them up with bigger mistakes.

From mistakes to bigger mistakes, because decision-makers should not directly bear the consequences of mistakes. It is always easier to choose to let others die than to choose to let themselves die. Speaking of the root, it is still a system problem.