At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

A month ago, everyone was still immersed in the feast of grabbing houses in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. In just one month, the trend has really changed. Cities, developers, intermediaries, owners and buyers in the real estate chain have become cautious and silent.

The reason is simple-at this moment, "housing and not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

The current situation is quite grim, too much water is released, and stagflation is coming.

(Stagflation: the marginal economic recovery slows down, inflation expectations rise, and it stands at the turning point of liquidity. )

Since the end of 2020, due to the sustained economic recovery, inflation expectations have risen, housing prices in some hot cities have risen, and local debt risks have been exposed.

The central bank and financial supervision departments began to tighten financial and credit policies in three major directions: real estate financing, local debt and shadow banking.

Now, housing is not really speculation, all-round regulation, top-level policy, cities, developers, buyers.

1. The high-level policy direction has changed.

Today, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, stood up and said: The core problem in the real estate sector is that the bubble is relatively large and it is the biggest grey rhinoceros in the financial system.

Although the CBRC and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development often stood up before, from the recent wind direction, it is obvious that the tolerance of high-level officials for soaring housing prices and soaring leverage ratio is getting lower and lower.

In addition, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a document, in accordance with the requirements of the residential land classification regulation document, focusing on regulating 22 hot cities to achieve two concentrations, namely, centralized release of transfer announcements and organization of transfer activities, and release of residential land announcements no more than three times in 20021year.

This can make the market information more transparent, guide the land market to return to rationality, and also make the originally scattered land become a "re-supply land" for centralized transfer, which can form a greater effect in society, prevent developers from grabbing land at high prices, divert the use of funds, and reduce the stimulation of hunger marketing on housing prices in local auction markets.

This time, the regulation is finally on the right track, regulating expectations, regulating land, regulating credit, stopping making hot spots and guiding the market back to rationality.

At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

2. Every city is politically correct and actively regulated.

Never underestimate the role of Shenzhen second-hand housing guidance price released in early February.

It sets the bottom line for the Shenzhen real estate market for at least the next five years, and the prospects for the credit and real estate derivatives industries.

All mortgage loans and operating loans must implement this guidance price, increase the down payment cost, reduce leverage in disguise, and let the rising Shenzhen property market gradually return to rationality.

There is also the overweight purchase restriction issued by Dongguan last week, which is a relay to Shenzhen, and the team "stays and does not speculate". The fiery new house in Dongguan has basically reached the point where one room is hard to find, and the price difference between a second-hand house upside down is still widening. In this way, Dongguan will surpass Suzhou and become the prefecture-level city with the highest housing price.

Now Dongguan basically follows the rhythm of Shenzhen. Shenzhen shuts down and Dongguan can't burn in the dark. After all, I once studied as a team in Changsha, and I have to go to Beijing to learn to be smart.

Dongguan, Shenzhen was beaten and the north was suppressed. No matter how good the city is, you must understand politics. Major cities can't be as noisy as before.

At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

3. Developers are trapped by credit and land.

In 2020, developers with deep pockets were frequently exposed to the shortage of capital chain, Evergrande was in urgent need of assistance, and Greenland was in deep trouble. Taihe borrowed money everywhere ... Think about how terrible high leverage and high turnover are. They are all big developers with the same limelight. If they fall, they will be a pool of bad debts.

Therefore, within one year, the developer has three red lines, and the city has concentrated on land supply for three times. One is to make developers have no money, and the other is to reduce developers and push up land prices.

202 1 we will see that the differentiation between housing enterprises is more serious, and developers who are at the end of the road will also sell companies and shares to sell projects. "Live" is the biggest appeal. Vanke should be named the industry leader here, which is really prescient.

The current situation is not optimistic. The crisis of the whole industry has not yet made a soft landing.

At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

4. Reduce the house price expectations of buyers.

The current regulation is basically to suppress housing price expectations on the demand side. The inflated Shenzhen owners once dared to form an alliance of house prices and bid up house prices by their own square meters.

At present, the housing price expectations of Shenzhen owners are gradually decreasing, and the heat of real estate speculators in Shenzhen has dropped significantly, basically not talking about real estate.

In fact, the decisive battle was second-hand, and the house was not sold, which was all book wealth. The moment you sell your house, it determines how much money you can earn, let alone replace it, so raising the price will only increase your replacement cost in disguise.

Last year, the intermediary helped the owners raise prices, control the market and drive up the market. Only one year. As soon as the guide price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen came out, the intermediary in Shenzhen collectively lost their jobs and went straight back to their hometown.

A year ago, the intermediary also dreamed of making some money by taking advantage of this wave of market, even if he bought a single room in Shenzhen.

Things are unpredictable. Now it seems that the intermediary is the worst group. After a hard round, the whole industry is dead. Inadvertently became a stepping stone for Shenzhen owners.

Everything has gone too far.

At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is no longer an empty slogan.

House prices in China have been rising for so many years. At this moment, "housing is not speculation" is really not an empty slogan, but a real attempt to curb this irrational prosperity.

In 2020, we witnessed so many black swans, 202 1, which will only be more magical. I recognize one sentence more: what will remain unchanged in the future is human nature and cycle.