How to judge whether the bull market has arrived?

Hello, several criteria for judging whether the bull market has come or not:

Look at the average daily turnover.

Volume is the most direct indicator to reflect the popularity of the stock market, and it is also the most important criterion to judge whether the bull market has arrived.

Bull market inevitably means the entry of incremental funds and the popularity of market transactions.

When the price rises well, there are many people rushing to buy it, and when it falls much, the transaction is very deserted.

The sky is high and the land is expensive, chasing up and killing down, buying high and selling low.

This is human nature in the bones.

We can use the average daily turnover as an important indicator to judge the upcoming bull market.

Refers to the average daily turnover in a certain period of time. The turnover on a certain day is influenced by many accidental factors, but if the average turnover over a period of time exceeds a certain value, we can say that a bull market is coming.

So what is this value?

Let's take a look at the average daily turnover during the last bull market.

I counted the CSI circulation index (including all circulating A shares). 20 14 bull market started on February 8, 20 15, with an average daily turnover of105 billion.

The craziest three months of the bull market in 20 15 (16 March to 15 June), the average daily turnover reached: nearly140 billion.

Therefore, we can take1000 billion as the dividing line of the trading volume of bulls and bears.

At present, the average daily turnover of CSI in the past 20 days is just close to 580 billion, which is nearly double the distance of 654.38+000 billion.

Moreover, due to the continuous listing of new shares in recent years, the average total market value of CSI circulation has increased from 5 1 trillion at that time to 65 trillion now.

That is to say, the market turnover has increased, which is also10 billion, indicating that the market trading activity is far less than in previous years.

Therefore, the daily average turnover of 580 billion yuan is still far from the bull market.

Look at the average daily turnover rate.

As I said before, because the market volume has become larger, the meaning of the same turnover has also changed, so the comparison will be somewhat distorted.

So we can use the average daily turnover rate as an indicator to judge the popularity of the market.

The turnover rate represents the proportion of stock turnover to circulating capital in a period of time.

Similarly, I counted the CSI circulation index, and the average daily turnover rate from February 8, 20 14 to June 29, 20 15 was 2.2%.

In the craziest three months of 20 15 bull market (from March of 16 to June of 15), the average daily turnover rate reached 2.7%.

In the past 20 days, the average daily turnover rate of CSI circulation was only 0.9%.

If the turnover rate of 2% is used as the dividing point between bull and bear, it is twice as bad.

The bull market is still far away.

Look at the balance of margin financing and securities lending again.

Due to the small scale of domestic securities lending business, the balance between them is mainly financing balance.

The balance of financing refers to the person who borrowed money from the securities firm for stock trading, and how much money has not been repaid. In other words, how much money is borrowed from brokers in the stock market?

As we all know, those who dare to borrow money and stock market are those who dare to take risks. Technically, they have a high risk appetite.

These people often enter the market earlier than other ordinary investors.

Moreover, the interest on borrowing money is very high. The more people borrow money for stock trading, the greater the amount borrowed, indicating that everyone thinks that the market can make big money in the short term, otherwise the interest can't stand it.

The most adventurous people gamble in the market, and those who borrow money to stock the market are not afraid of death. This indicator can well explain the popularity of the market.

I counted the balances of two financial institutions since 20 14 and 14.

At the peak of the 20 15 bull market, the balance between the two companies was close to 2.3 trillion.

At present, the balance between the two financial institutions has just exceeded 654.38 billion +0.0000 billion.

Of course, it is because after the stock market crash, the restrictions on financing have been tightened.

If150 billion is used as the dividing line between bulls and bears, the current100 billion is still 50% short.

Look at the increase since the low point.

I once said that in order to confirm the coming of the bull market, at least mainstream indexes (such as Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, CSI 500 and GEM) should be higher than the previous lows by more than 50%.

Strictly speaking, it will increase 100%.

Otherwise, it is normal for the stock market to rebound by 20%~30% casually. We may experience this level of bull market five or six hundred and seventy-eight times a year, which is too cheap.

Let's take a look at the increase of the current major indexes relative to the previous round of lows:

At present, only the small and medium-sized board index and the growth enterprise market index have increased by more than 50% at relatively low points, which is a bit of a bull market.

However, compared with A shares, due to the small coverage of constituent stocks, their representativeness is relatively poor.

And I have strict requirements for the bull market, at least the index must double at a relatively low point.

Therefore, the bull market I expected in my heart has not yet arrived.

Look at the number of new investors.

That is, the number of newly opened accounts.

A bull market means that people who wait and see enter the market. This means that the number of accounts opened has soared.

Let's take a look at the number of new accounts opened every week since the peak of the 20 15 bull market:

It can be seen that the number of new investors per week at the peak of the bull market has reached nearly 654.38+0.7 million.

Open a stock account of 6,543,800+7,000 per week.

Now, the number of new accounts opened every week has just exceeded 300,000.

The bull market is coming, and the number of new accounts opened every week will exceed the highs of 20 16 and 20 17.

The peak value of 20 16 is 600,000, and that of 20 17 is 560,000.

At present, it has just passed 300,000, and the bull market is far away.

However, the number of new accounts is on the rise, so we can continue to observe.

The market began to eliminate low-priced stocks.

Whenever there is a bull market, there will be the phenomenon of eliminating absolutely low-priced stocks (such as below 5 yuan), low P/E ratio stocks and broken net stocks.

First of all, because there are more funds in the bull market, the valuation center of the whole market will rise upwards.

Secondly, many new investors who don't know the situation will buy stocks with low absolute price and low absolute valuation, thinking that these "cheap" stocks are good. I'm sure none of my readers will do this.

Let's take a look at the number and proportion of low-priced stocks, low-PE stocks and broken net stocks when the bull market was in full swing in March 2065438+2005, compared with today's:

It can be seen that the number and proportion of low-priced stocks and low-valued stocks in the bull market are far less than now.

In particular, the number of stocks below 5 yuan and the broken net stocks have almost been eliminated.

Look at people's attention to stocks.

There is a story about an aunt who collects parking fees at the gate of a brokerage firm. She judged bulls and bears by observing the traffic of brokers, and finally became a multi-millionaire by speculating in stocks.

Although it is a joke, people's attention to stocks is indeed a good indicator to judge bulls and bears.

When more and more people start talking about stocks around, maybe a bull market is coming.

The bull market may have reached its peak when there are no colleagues who buy stocks and aunts in the vegetable market to recommend stocks to you.

Now few people go to offline brokers to open accounts or trade. After the development of the Internet, people's offline activities are much less than before.

We moved more of our lives online. And everyone's attention to stocks on the Internet can well reflect the bull and bear situation in the stock market.

Compared with the original observation of people around us, the Internet can give us a broader and more comprehensive observation perspective.

finally

For judging the bull market, it is not necessary to meet all the above indicators and conditions to confirm the bull market.

On the contrary, the more the above situations happen at the same time, the greater the probability of a bull market coming.

Among them, the most important indicators are turnover, turnover rate and new accounts. It directly reflects the popularity of the market.

It is particularly important to note that its trend is more important than the absolute value of the index.

If an indicator breaks through the critical value, it will continue to rise.

For example, the number of newly opened households exceeds 600,000 per week, and then it continues to grow every week, showing an upward trend, then the probability of a bull market coming is very high.

Risk disclosure: This information does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should not substitute such information for their independent judgment, or make decisions only based on such information. It does not constitute any trading operation and does not guarantee any income. If you operate by yourself, please pay attention to position control and risk control.