Analysis of housing price issues

I agree with one sentence: the current housing prices have nothing to do with the people! It’s not that it really doesn’t matter, but that most people can no longer afford to buy a house. Many people have a hatred of the rich, but they mainly hate those who make "not legitimate" money. The most typical ones are real estate developers. They use various means to raise the price of houses that are not expensive and make huge profits for themselves. Where do these people make money? Answer: They have exclusively enjoyed the fruits of social progress! With the development of the economy, people's living standards are improving day by day, and they are beginning to have the ability to try to buy a house, so real estate developers are profitable. The benefits of social unity and progress are exclusively enjoyed by them. Who wouldn't gnash their teeth? In fact, a great man proposed a theory to solve this problem 100 years ago, called: equal land rights! This person is Sun Yat-sen, and his "equal land rights" means "increase in price and return to the public." For example: you bought land for RMB 500,000 and built a house, which can be sold for RMB 1,000,000. However, after two years, the house price has increased to RMB 3,000,000. Then, the RMB 1,000,000 that has increased due to the increase in land prices has to be turned over to the state treasury. Yes, because in the process of rising from 2 million to 3 million, the 1 million had nothing to do with the developers. They did nothing and got something for nothing. So how was this 1 million created? Obviously, it was created by the common people. It comes from the common progress of the entire society, so this 1 million must be returned to society. Of course, this theory is quite extreme and is impossible to realize today.

Today, in China's unique dual economy, the profits from the real estate industry account for a large proportion of the country's GDP. This is terrible. A large part of a country's economic source is actually the source of people's survival. The economic structure of the house is too simple, making people feel insecure about the current economic situation. China's real estate market has always been very good, so now rich people no longer have regular jobs, they all come to real estate speculation, because it is the easiest to do, it does not require manpower, material resources, technology, market development, etc., it only requires capital, you can invest 1 million now According to the current market price of the house, I can sell it for 2 million and make a net profit of 1 million. How great! Typical example: Many state-owned enterprises that are not engaged in real estate are engaged in real estate. However, some time ago, I don’t know whether it was due to national macro-control or to protect the corporate image (I have no idea). Amid overwhelming public condemnation, 78 state-owned enterprises Exit the real estate industry. Another one, Haier, which is engaged in manufacturing, also used 15 billion to speculate in real estate. The singer Gigi Leung did not concentrate on singing, but also speculated in real estate... The last time I saw the entertainment news "Gigi Leung made tens of millions from real estate speculation in the Mainland and became a rich woman", I All of a sudden, I despised her from the bottom of my heart. Damn it, if all the rich people were like you, then China’s housing prices would never come down. They are a bunch of bastards who are not doing their jobs properly. In addition, the manufacturing industry allocates funds to real estate speculation, which hinders its own development. Since it is easy and fast to make money from real estate speculation, all walks of life invest in it. As a result, its own development has weakened, and what has followed is that Massive unemployment, simplification of the economic structure, and increasing instability of economic development, such a vicious cycle... Having said that, the reason why housing prices are so high and so many people are rushing to buy them is that the demand for houses is too large and the population There are too many, but there is no other way. The second is the deep-rooted and outdated thinking of Chinese people: You must have a house! When a girl gets married nowadays, it doesn’t depend on whether you are a good person, whether you are handsome or not, whether you love her or not, but whether you have a house first. In fact, you can’t really own your own house in China. China’s land use Quan is only 70 years old, and usually a house faces problems such as demolition and reconstruction after 30 years. If this is not the case, only one has his own house. If it were not for the special "face" culture of Asians, for those who do not have For those who can afford to buy a house, renting is actually the most cost-effective option. If you take out a loan to buy a house, you can rent the house for who knows how many years from the down payment to the outright purchase. Moreover, you can rent a house relatively freely. If you don’t like it, you can just change the place. The place can also change according to the work. Last year's hit "Snail House" made people really sweat. The problem of housing prices has made us, the generation born in the 1980s, breathless.

However, I believe that housing prices will eventually come down one day, but by then people who can’t afford a house now may not be able to afford a house.

As a commodity, housing is completely separated from its inherent commodity attributes and has completely become a tool for real estate speculators to make huge profits. This is a kind of bubble, and the bubble will eventually burst one day. Assuming that real estate prices will rise indefinitely, real estate developers will incur large costs when buying land and high financing costs when repairing houses. When the volume of real estate transactions gradually decreases, real estate developers will sell houses and withdraw funds in the process. The speed will gradually shrink. When the capital chain shrinks to the point where it cannot afford its financing costs, the capital chain will be broken. At this time, real estate developers will speed up selling houses to cash out. This is the turning point of the real estate industry. Now, we are very interested in how high housing prices will cause transaction volume to shrink to a certain extent, making real estate developers unable to cover the cost of their own loan financing. After calculating this point, we will probably know how many years housing prices will rise. Therefore, China's real estate is now facing such a dramatic increase, and sooner or later it will be corrected by common sense. It's not a question of if, but when. However, I am a little worried that the day the real estate bubble bursts, will it mean the collapse of the Chinese economy? Will it be like a Japanese-style crash that caused an economic downturn that lasted for more than 20 years, or a U.S.-style mortgage crisis that caused another financial crisis, or a Dubai-style real estate bubble that burst, resulting in overcapacity and heavy national debt? If that happens, we still can't afford to buy a house because housing prices are very low, but the national economy is paralyzed and we can't make money. It's still the same as now. I wonder when and how China's future economic problems will completely break out. It’s unknown what the consequences will be. I’m not Song Hongbing, so I won’t predict.