Expert analysis: Rizhao house price trend will decline in 2008!

It is the real estate agent who keeps the house. They first covered most of the second-hand houses and quasi-new houses in Beijing with bank funds. Why do they have a suite? Pay someone to move the house. The so-called back house is to find some people who can borrow money from the bank to buy a house. As long as the person carrying the house provides the identity card and the income certificate issued by the unit. People who carry houses can get a commission of 20 thousand to 50 thousand yuan. Leave the rest to the real estate agent. The intermediary sets the house and sells it after reaching their expected value. Now you want to ask? If the house doesn't reach their expected value. What will they do? They will wait. Because in their own writing, the house will only appreciate. 1 Two years later, they transferred the property registered by Mortgagor A to the registration of Mortgagor B. That is, two years ago, I used a loan of 400,000 yuan to let Mortgagor A carry a suite. Today, two years later, I borrowed 700,000 yuan from mortgagor B to pay back A's suite, and got rid of the mortgagor's commission. And the housing price difference paid to the state. The net income they cheated directly from the bank will not be lower than 654.38+0.6 million per house. Of course, the person who carries the house can also carry it and get a commission after transferring the house. B- back A, C- back B and C- back N in turn. The intermediary pays people to buy a house with a loan from the bank, and then sells it at a high price. If you don't buy it, the agent will hire someone to buy the previous suite at a high price with a bank loan. It's a bank loan anyway. Every time you buy or sell, you can cheat the bank of money once. When you meet a real buyer, the intermediary sells it at a high price. So repeatedly. ) in the so-called housing value is measured by the relationship between supply and demand. It's a manipulated value. Now the price-limited housing introduced by the Beijing government is just wishful thinking to support housing prices. Because the cost of the blank house itself is only about 1000 yuan. Now, the more the government regulates the growth rate of total real estate development, more and more bank funds enter the real estate market, and the growth rate of house prices is also faster and faster. These are all the results of human manipulation. Now more developers directly turn developed commercial houses into second-hand houses. Cooperate with the housing agency and apply for a loan from the bank. Promote the prosperity of the current so-called property market by means of housing for the elderly. Finally, put all the risks on the bank. Now the government wants a soft landing for real estate. Only on the basis of finally supporting the existing housing prices, for people who buy houses with bank loans. It is stipulated that the repayment time of the lender is 20 or 30 years, and it is not allowed to repay the loan in advance. Bank interest should be fixed, and the loan house cannot be bought or sold within the repayment time. In this way, it can be reflected that the loan to buy a house is for self-occupation. On the contrary, the black hole of that mortgage will get bigger and bigger. If the house collapses for a long time. People who really buy a house will pay 20% down with bank loans. Buyers who have repaid loans for less than 7 years will not repay loans to banks. What will happen to the national finance? The government can imagine. Secondly, there are intermediary fees charged by the intermediary according to the proportion of the total value of the house. Then these house appraisers who serve the intermediary will only overestimate the house. These intermediaries cheat ethics and the rising ethics of developers and the powerful ethics of the government. It also made today's deformed real estate. Finally, I hope that some netizens will widely spread my post. Hope to follow up the delivery. Let's expose those robberies together!

Speculators bought a 100 square meter commercial house last year, with an opening price of 5,000 yuan/square meter and a total price of 500,000 yuan. The loan is 80%, and the down payment is 6,543,800 yuan. A few months later, they fired the house price to 8000 yuan/square meter. Worried that no one will buy it? They're not going to sell at all! -They sold the house to themselves! (in the name of another person, of course). At this time, the total house price is 800,000 yuan, the loan is 80% (640,000 yuan), and the down payment is 1.6 million yuan. He sold the house to himself by refinancing (or repaying the loan in advance) and paid income tax on the difference.

At this time, let's see what the result is: this person earned a house price difference of 300,000 yuan (because he paid back the bank's money with the bank's money), minus the second down payment 1.6 million yuan and a little income tax, he has earned 1.4 million yuan. And the house is still in its name at this time! Its only burden now is to repay the loan of 640 thousand, plus interest, which is not a small sum. But what does it matter? If the loan is not paid, the bank will take back the house. ! Still earn 1.4 million. If it can still find a buyer, even at the second transaction price (usually higher, you will see the purchase price in the purchase contract), then it can at least get back the second down payment of 6.5438+0.6 million. Then this round will make a net profit of more than 300 thousand. Of course, there will be some transaction costs, but it is insignificant compared with the house price.

Here comes the question:

First, can they speculate on housing prices so high?

Answer: Yes. The fundamental reason is that the developers themselves are mainly involved in this activity. Generally speaking, developers will have an internal subscription before the official opening. Through this internal subscription, developers will know how many real buyers there are. According to an uncomplicated algorithm, they know how much the house price has been fired and there are real buyers, so they can decide how many houses they can keep for safe speculation. In most cases, they can earn at least the amount of speculation sold to them (corresponding to the above 654.38+0.4 million) without leaking clues, because there are real transactions that cover up this false transaction. This round, there are two direct victims, one is the follow-up buyer and the other is the loan bank; The former wants to get a habitat at a price much higher than that of the pre-subscribers (in fact, the pre-subscription price has been speculated until now). From the beginning of buying a house, they have been shackled by developers and speculators for most of their lives, stumbling on the road of life and being enslaved all their lives; The latter (bank) will take greater risks: if the real estate speculators can't transfer the house to the real buyers again, then it will cause a bad debt-the speculators (developers) take a lot of cash from the bank, leaving the house that can't be transferred, and more importantly, you can't recover the cash because the process seems legal. The false mortgage amount of 600 million yuan in Senhao apartment was exposed, not because the hype was too bad and the amount of funds was too large, but because they diverted speculative funds for other purposes, leading to a bad end. If they use a part of the huge loan fraud funds for the completion of this property, the speculation will be safely banned and become another invisible black hand of rising house prices-everyone can only see the soaring house prices, but they can't see how many properties fall into the pockets of developers and bank officials.

Second, are all bankers so stupid?

Answer: No, the reason is that developers and bank insiders may collude well. Some bank insiders who participate in this operation never thought of making money for the bank by paying loan interest by buyers. Frankly speaking, they may be involved in sharing stolen goods-China real estate developers know how to feed them. So basically, they steal ill-gotten gains together with developers, pass the risks on to the national banks, and the real buyers pay the bill. Once the real buyer can't buy this huge order, the bank will have a crisis. At this time, the people of the whole country pay the bill, and the state must inject capital into banks to eliminate bad debts. Where does the national money come from? Print money! What was the result? Inflation, soaring prices, old people's money is worthless, or people's money has been robbed, who robbed it? It was robbed by the state to stop the leak, which blocked the big hole eaten by developers and some officials of banks. This hole is so big that it will be an ugly scar if it is blocked, which will hurt the people forever.

Third, why is there such a thing in China?

Answer: corrupt officials. China's strangeness, strangeness, nausea, sadness, anger, boredom and helplessness can all be summed up in these two words. These two words are academically the personnel system. In China, it is reasonable to say that officials are not greedy, although it is overdone. The reason is that you can't be an official without upfront investment. Since all the money has been spent to climb, is there any reason not to be greedy? In our country, the law is sometimes a joke. Courts are also managed by government officials. If you don't revolve around him, you won't be an official of the court tomorrow. How did you get this official position in the court? It goes without saying! Therefore, under this personnel system, a hotbed of corrupt officials has formed, and it is more reasonable for bank officials to face money directly and attract corrupt officials. Everyone knows that in any place, the most imposing things are banks and taxes, not to mention being an official and being able to get light energy into them is enviable.

Fourth, does real estate promote the national economy?

Answer: yes; Very big. Developers/speculators and banks will speculate on housing prices, resulting in extremely high housing prices, but people must have a place to live. ! In order to buy a house to live in, everyone can only work hard, which objectively promotes the development of the overall economy. However, although the economy has developed, the distribution of wealth created is seriously misplaced: the industrious people find that the speed of making money cannot keep up with the speed of rising house prices. Accompanied by the applause of the country's economic development, people were haggard and gray-haired in their early years. They looked at the rising house prices blankly and were at a loss; They don't know that real estate developers and bureaucrats are squeezing their blood and sweat bit by bit.

5. What can we do?

Answer: Yes. House prices are out of control to this extent today, and captured experts are screaming out to defend themselves, saying that high house prices are a normal market economy phenomenon. And some people who don't know the truth (except a few speculators) are also scared by the rising housing prices, preferring to be bound and have a place to live, so they subscribe for a new house, which is ignorant. Once the subscription is successful, the house price will rise again, and it seems that hundreds of thousands of houses have not been paid, which seems to be a big bargain. Actually, you sell it and see if anyone really cares about you. In fact, you unconsciously acted as an accomplice of some developers and some bank officials, but also a victim, and you are still complacent there! You just suffered less. You get punched, others get punched twice, and you deserve to be happy? Really, I can only despise you, because it was you who grabbed the punch, which led others to get the two punches. If we don't participate in the subscription, I believe they can't speculate, let alone grab social wealth naked. So I appeal to you, and I hope you: don't participate in any form of subscription, and don't rank any number.

Up to now, some developers and some bank officials have seized a lot of wealth, and the housing price has been rising, and the housing price bubble has become a reality. What we have to do now is to burst this bubble, and we refuse to build our miserable enslaved Yi life on this huge bubble. So I appeal to you to let you know again: if we can't buy a house for the time being, don't buy it, and maintain the status quo for the time being. I believe that if we do this, it will only take half a year to a year, and these insidious developers and some corrupt officials in the bank will be exposed: First, the bank has a large number of bad debts and the national bank has serious economic problems. If this problem is not investigated, it will seriously affect the real interests of other interest groups (remember, there are many interest subjects besides developers and banks). Once the national economy on which they depend has problems, these interest groups will react strongly. 7. They will use the judiciary to intervene in the tracing of bad debts, forcing bank officials to be tried and give up the inside story of bribery, and then trace the bribed developers. Traditionally, these developers jumped up and down and began to buy and trace officials with their own blood. However, because these officials represent the interests of more groups, most unscrupulous developers will face despair. Some illegal wealth will be recovered (if they are not squandered). More directly, house prices will tend to be basically reasonable.

What is a reasonable price? People who work hard with their hands-they are the real creators of social wealth, they can afford a house, loans will not crush them for life, they can still be in the mood to tease their children after work, and they can show a little smile on the way to work ... These are basic living standards, but they have been ruthlessly destroyed by developers and bank officials. I wonder if anyone has reprinted it, hehe.