What impact will the hosting of the 2022 Winter Olympics have on the steel industry?

Beijing won the right to host the 24th Winter Olympics in 2022, which also brought a signal of recovery in the steel industry.

At present, the current situation of my country's steel industry is bleak, and the continuous downward trend has burned out the last hope of steel companies. Although many companies have struggled to maintain it, the demand in the steel industry has never shown signs of recovery. The acquisition of the right to host the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in China has rekindled hopes among steel mill bosses. According to the plan of the Winter Olympics Bid Committee, the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics will form three relatively clustered venues in urban Beijing, Yanqing, and Zhangjiakou Chongli. The snow event will be held in Zhangjiakou, and now Beijing is planning to build a high-speed railway to Zhangjiakou. In addition to railways, stadium construction, surrounding real estate projects, highway construction, bridge construction, etc. will drive the demand for construction steel. Agency estimates show that from 2016 to 2022, it will indirectly drive the demand for 55 million tons of construction steel every year, of which the demand for housing construction is 44 million tons and the demand for infrastructure construction is 11 million tons.

What impact will the 2022 Winter Olympics have on the steel industry? Will the steel plant stop production for the 2022 Winter Olympics? Regarding this issue, I would like to summarize the following points:

1. The impact of the hosting of the 2022 Winter Olympics on the steel industry will be complex. Generally speaking, it is good news, which will be discussed in detail below. Some of my opinions.

2. It will definitely actively promote the development of the steel industry. (A bit repetitive with 1)

3. This time is unlikely to be an opportunity for the rise of the steel industry.

First of all, we can confirm that China’s successful bid to host the 2022 Winter Olympics is good news for the steel industry. It’s very simple. To host the Winter Olympics, venues must be built, roads and bridges including high-speed rail must be repaired, and real estate near the venue must be popular. All of these are inseparable from steel.

It is understood that in order to prepare for the 2008 Olympic Games, China invested more than 300 billion yuan in infrastructure construction in 7 years, investing in 12 new venues, 11 renovation and expansion venues, and the construction of 8 temporary venues. , renovated 45 independent training halls. In addition, the eastward expansion project of the Capital Airport and the T3 terminal were completed. The total mileage of the new expressway network was 578 kilometers, and the construction of 146 kilometers of rail transit was completed.

It is foreseeable that the 2022 Winter Olympics will also attract a huge investment. However, on the one hand, the cake of the Winter Olympics is much smaller, and on the other hand, part of this cake was already completed before 2008 (for example, 11 of the 12 venues required for the Winter Olympics are already ready, and only new ones need to be built. (a national speed skating stadium), so the investment will be much less than in 2008. Regarding the budget for the 2022 Winter Olympics:

Thrifty hosting of the games is a major concept and goal of Beijing’s bid for the Olympics. According to the financial budget of the Winter Olympics, the event preparation budget is approximately US$1.56 billion, with government subsidies accounting for 6%; the venue construction budget, including competition venues and non-competition venues, is approximately US$1.51 billion. Of this US$1.51 billion 65% of it comes from social investment.

Although the money may not seem like much, it is just a locomotive, and the investment it will drive is not small. I can’t estimate how much it will drive, and the radiation radius is mainly in North China. PS. Let’s be shady: Hebei Iron and Steel (a subsidiary of Hebei Iron and Steel Group) released its first quarter financial report for 2015, which showed that its operating income was 21.958 billion yuan; the investment budget for the Beijing Olympics is US$40 billion.

Secondly, the 2022 Winter Olympics places stringent requirements on the environment of the host city. At this stage, steel companies are almost all major polluters. Even if there is no waste discharge on the surface, if you climb up and look down on a sunny day, you will find that there is almost an upside-down dust bowl covering the area near the steel plant. (Don’t ask me how I know) A more formal statement:

The holding of the 2022 Winter Olympics will realize environmental protection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and force the upgrading of the steel industry, greatly promoting the transformation of steel plants from extensive pollution to efficient Improvements in governance.

This impact is actually divided into two aspects.

On the one hand, for large and medium-sized steel companies, various hardware and software conditions such as corporate strength, social image, and funding sources are there, and even if they pollute, they will never be seen (this sentence is ambiguous) , but these are all what I want to express), so environmental protection and forced upgrading are the only way for enterprises to exist and develop. If the state helps a little, you can dig some yourself, and then think about it, there is still no big problem.

On the other hand, for small steel companies, all their money comes from environmental protection. Without funds or assistance, it is difficult for them to invest in environmental protection. They will only stop production during the day and at night. Or inspections stop normal production, which results in the existence of black factories. (A joke is that there are 7 steel mills in a certain place according to Bureau A, and 9 from Bureau B. The total is 11.)

So the 2022 Winter Olympics is both steel and steel in this respect. Opportunities for the industry are also challenges for the steel industry: environmental protection forces industrial upgrading and elimination of backward production capacity, which is conducive to the healthy development of the steel industry; however, for those employees of enterprises with backward production capacity, unemployment may be close at hand, and many large and medium-sized enterprises are in financial difficulties. Poor circulation is just adding insult to injury.

Finally, this is by no means an opportunity for the rise of the steel industry. There are currently two main difficulties in the steel industry.

First, there is severe overcapacity and imbalance. The price of upstream raw material iron ore is high and the price of downstream products is low (it is said that the price of rebar for construction has dropped to about 2,100 yuan/ton). (The price of cabbage in most vegetable wholesale markets is more than this price), and the profit margin is meager (that is, ordinary steel companies are losing money);

Secondly, the flow of funds is not smooth. If the steel companies do not manage well, they will encounter Bank loans are GG. No matter from which aspect, the 2022 Winter Olympics is not an opportunity for the rise of the steel industry (besides, the steel industry has already risen and now seems to be on the decline). At most, it can help the steel industry pick up and recover.

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Published on 11-28 11:57