A sauce can dry millions of bones? A bottle of "53 degrees Wahaha" is hard to find. How long can Maotai "fly"?

Dongfang Net Longitudinal Reporter Bian Hao Ying

As Mo Jun talks about A shares, one sauce dries a million bones.

Approaching the market value of 3 trillion yuan and the share price of 23 13 yuan, it seems that the A-share market years ago has been unable to stop the flying of Kweichow Moutai. And it's not just Moutai's share price that has hit record highs. The "price limit order" has cast a spell on the fiery Maotai market, but the enthusiasm of users still makes "make more time" (homophonic "don't want Maotai") an interesting but helpless "code word".

Maotai became the third largest city in China?

These days, a network drawing from Jinshi data became popular. As of the close of February 5, the market value of Kweichow Moutai was as high as 2.9 trillion yuan. If this figure is converted into regional gross domestic product (GDP), Maotai Town will become the third largest city in China after Shanghai and Beijing.

Of course, such conversion is obviously unscientific. Because market value is a dynamic stock index and GDP is a flow index reflecting the overall scale, the two cannot be converted and are not comparable. Maotai can't be easily defined as "the third largest city in China".

However, although the paragraph is a joke, "the text is not rough." The market value of Maotai reflected behind it has soared, which is universally recognized.

Up to now, the market value of Kweichow Moutai is close to 3 trillion, which is equivalent to the total market value of all 2 15 listed companies in the Science and Technology Innovation Board by the end of 2020. Kweichow Moutai leads the A-share market value, and its total market value is almost twice that of the second-ranked Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

Kweichow Moutai's share price is 23 13 yuan, which is not only the highest share price of A shares in recent 27 years. It is only "a daily limit" from the 2,587.5 yuan of vacuum electronics, the second highest price in the history of A shares.

Although it is far from the third city in China, Kweichow Moutai is obviously well-deserved as the "first stock".

"Don't ask me what to buy, just ask Maotai."

For the majority of analysts, seeing the unexpected share price of Maotai now, I am afraid that people are not "drunk" and their faces will be "swollen" first.

Last year, in the month of 65438+ 10, Maotai's share price was "only"100 yuan. Since then, affected by the epidemic, Maotai's share price once fell below the 65,438+10,000 yuan mark. At that time, practitioners including many liquor industry analysts expressed concern about the prospects of Maotai. Until May last year, even the most optimistic brokers in Maotai gave the highest stock price expectation of only10.03 million yuan.

Even when Maotai's share price broke through 1900 yuan in 65438+ 10 this year, the "target price" of CICC 2 100 yuan still surprised the market. However, in just one month, the market is really staggering again. Even if the share price of 23 13 yuan is "Monday morning quarterback", it is difficult to predict such a result.

"Don't ask me what to buy, just ask Maotai." A mechanical industry analyst's spit in the circle of friends has successfully become a "hot search" in the brokerage industry this week. "When the excavator rang, Maotai got cold. As soon as the contract is signed, there will be two thousand gold ... The real purpose of our main excavator is to push Maotai. "

At present, there are two liquor industry stocks in the top ten market capitalization of A-share market. Wuliangye, another liquor company, currently ranks first in the market value of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Such a hot liquor market seems to make non-liquor industry analysts feel unprecedented confusion.

"I have been a TMT industry analyst for five years (note: TMT is telecommunications, media and technology. It is the abbreviation of telecommunications, media and technology. I really understand what TMT is this year. " An analyst of Ping An Securities told Dongfang.com and Zongxiang News, "The real TMT is Tencent and Maotai."

Analysts' self-mockery also reveals the current market structure more or less-a "sauce" is success.

According to media statistics, behind the rapid rise of Maotai's share price, the price of 1469 stock is lower than the level of 2440 points on 20 191October 4, with an increase of 42%. During this period, Maotai rose as high as 1.70%, and its market value increased by more than 1.5 trillion yuan.

What is even more incredible is that it seems difficult for the market to explain Maotai's "flying" with the usual logic. "The Chinese New Year, everyone wants to drink. Maotai has gone up. The epidemic was so serious that everyone stayed at home and wanted to drown their sorrows in wine. Maotai is still rising. The epidemic prevention and control has achieved results, and everyone has resumed the pace of life, or they still have to drink. So Maotai has gone up again. "

"When you are caught in a complex market, when you are at a loss about the new policy, please boldly say four words-good for Maotai". "Good Maotai" has therefore become a hot word in the industry in 2020, which is behind the ridicule of the hot liquor market and the helplessness of the investment market.

"Wahaha at 53 degrees", think about it?

Excuse me, where is the restaurant? The shepherd boy said, "make more time."

This slightly meaningless "stalk" comes from the American song "Time". One of the lyrics "Make more time" and "Don't Maotai" have almost the same pronunciation, which makes talented netizens from all walks of life "carnival".

But what netizens probably didn't expect was that "spoofing" has now become a reality. The festive season is approaching, and the phrase "a bottle is hard to find" circulating in Maotai market may appropriately interpret that sentence-"there is no Maotai".

"In offline stores in big cities, I am afraid it is difficult to buy hot-selling Moutai." A Maotai dealer told Dongfang. com. According to the vertical journalist, the current trend of Maotai's "demand exceeds supply" is obvious. Take the 53-degree flying Maotai as an example. In the major e-commerce platforms, the related products of Kweichow Moutai official direct store have previously shown "sold out". The cheap Moutai promotion activities with a price of 1499 yuan were all "seconds killed" in an instant without exception.

But in fact, just in the fourth quarter of last year, Kweichow Moutai once put 8 million tons of flying Maotai into the market. This figure is the sum of the first three quarters of last year. In addition, market news shows that the brewing workshop planned to be put into production in 20021was fully put into production in June last year. Kweichow Moutai's determination to control the price of liquor is obvious.

"But even so, Maotai is still very tight." A Maotai dealer told Dongfang. com. Even though Maotai has made unprecedented efforts, the market demand and supply still can't match. "From the demand side, the high-end liquor market of Maotai is almost monopolized. From the supply side, Maotai's base wine takes five years. Even if the production is increased now, it will take five years for the new batch of wine to be put into production at the earliest, and it is impossible to change the current supply situation soon. "

Earlier, Kweichow Moutai said it would take measures to stabilize the price of Moutai during the festival. These include measures such as increasing the volume, 100% unpacking sales, and stopping conditional promotion.

At the same time, the pace of market supervision has not stopped. On February 5th, Zhengzhou Municipal Market Supervision Bureau held an administrative interview on the price policy of high-end liquor, demanding strict implementation of the price of Tian Fei Maotai 1499 yuan/bottle.

But obviously, Maotai at 1499 yuan is not something you can buy if you want. Due to many factors, such as price restrictions, some Moutai transactions even went underground from the stage. Terms such as "53-degree Wahaha" and "Nongfu Spring" have become "code words" for dealers to evade platform audit.

Just like the stock price of Feitian Maotai, the price of "drunk" Maotai is also surprising. However, market participants pointed out that high-priced Maotai is still a cyclical product. With the stability of the post-holiday market, the decrease of the demand side and the strengthening of the supply side, the price of Maotai will not always exist.

Stock price and wine price: How long can Qi Fei and Maotai "fly"? What do you think of this?