Autobot's 34 trillion "new infrastructure" launches, the automobile industry welcomes business opportunities

The abundant social funds caused by the massive infrastructure construction will indirectly benefit the automobile market. What are the differences between this “new infrastructure” and the massive “old infrastructure” ten years ago?

Article/"Car Man" Zhang Heng

The words "Infrastructure Maniac" are not called for nothing.

The new coronavirus is raging around the world. In addition to health, what people are most worried about is the economic decline. You are worried and I am worried. In fact, the government is more worried about the economy than anyone else.

No, the global "big flood" (interest rate cut cycle) is coming again.

Across the ocean, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in an emergency. "Emergency" is a measure taken by the Federal Reserve specifically due to the epidemic. The three major U.S. stock indexes stopped falling and fluctuated sharply. Goldman Sachs made a surprising statement, believing that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more at the end of April. This is obviously an attempt to protect US stocks by "releasing water".

Not only the United States, on March 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate to the lowest level in history. Immediately afterwards, Bank Negara Malaysia announced an interest rate cut, lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%.

Global interest rate cuts are like a tornado. Since Japan and Europe have negative interest rates, interest rate cuts in countries with positive interest rates have put a lot of pressure on them. After all, their operating space is very small. Will the central bank of my country follow suit? It is also a global concern. But in the face of economic downturn, we have our own "unique skill" in terms of finance, which is "iron public base".

"New infrastructure", a kind of "iron public infrastructure" that has been given a new meaning, has detonated the financial market. Under the premise of favorable policies introduced by many ministries and commissions, many provinces and cities including Fujian, Yunnan, Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hebei and other provinces have successively released investment plans for key projects. The total amount of investment was first heard to be an astonishing 11 trillion yuan, and then it was called 25 trillion yuan, and now there is still talk of 34 trillion yuan. Of course, this is the total amount of investment, not the amount of investment in 2020. But what is the concept of this number? It is far beyond the comprehension of ordinary people like me.

As we all know, large-scale investment in infrastructure has always been a common method for my country to hedge against the decline in economic growth, and it has been tried and tested repeatedly. Affected by the raging virus this time, the whole country is focused on epidemic prevention and control, but the economy has almost stagnated: the manufacturing PMI fell to 35.7 in February; in the first 23 days of February, the passenger car wholesale and retail sales growth rates of the Passenger Car Association were year-on-year. -93% and -89%; my country's heavy truck sales in February were 39,000 units, down 50% year-on-year and 67% month-on-month.

The economy is doomed? As mentioned earlier, the country is more anxious than you. I still remember that 11 years ago, our country launched a 4 trillion yuan infrastructure project to hedge against the global financial tsunami. Today, 4 trillion yuan is just a fraction.

In fact, "new infrastructure" is not a new concept. At the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2018, the positioning of "new infrastructure" such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things was clarified . Subsequently, strengthening the "new generation information infrastructure construction" was included in the 2019 Government Work Report. At the beginning of 2020, the State Council executive meeting clearly proposed to vigorously develop advanced manufacturing and introduce investment support policies for new infrastructure such as information networks.

On March 4, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting and pointed out that it is necessary to increase investment in public health services and emergency material support, and accelerate the development of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers. The progress of construction must focus on mobilizing the enthusiasm of private investment.

The scope of "new infrastructure" is very broad and is constantly being given new connotations. But first of all, it is infrastructure, and it is equipped with more cutting-edge technology infrastructure. Since it is infrastructure, steel bars, cement, railways, highways, airports, bridges, and ports cannot escape. The worrying real estate industry has been publicly named again by the Central Bank, Ministry of Finance and China Insurance Regulatory Commission. They insist on the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation", do not use real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulation, and also emphasize the continuity of real estate finance. , consistency and stability.

In order to carry out infrastructure construction, commercial vehicles are already crazy about it. Some institutions said that the market's willingness to buy heavy trucks was relatively high in February, and the potential demand for heavy trucks was still large. After the epidemic is over, the sales of heavy trucks will rebound. After February, there have been basically no deposit refunds in the heavy truck market, indicating that most customers will still buy cars.

Commercial vehicle dealers are generally optimistic about market demand after the epidemic is over, believing that there will be a small sales boom. It is expected that the sales volume of heavy trucks in 2020 will be basically the same as that in 2019.

In addition, another “new infrastructure” project with a high degree of certainty is the vehicle-road collaboration equipment required for intelligent driving. On February 24, the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and 11 other ministries and commissions mentioned that positive progress must be made in the construction of intelligent transportation systems and smart city-related facilities before 2025. The new generation of vehicle wireless network communications (5G-V2X) is gradually being applied on some urban highways.

It is foreseeable that smart road infrastructure is expected to grow rapidly. New technology applications such as 5G-V2X, autonomous driving, cloud computing, high-precision maps, and sensor networks will board the "giant aircraft carrier" of the "new infrastructure" to ride the wind and waves.

In addition to the development of commercial vehicles and intelligent driving technology, looking back on the past, during the 4 trillion yuan investment in infrastructure construction in 2009 and 2010, my country's automobile sales growth rates reached 46.1% and 32.4% respectively, which was Since the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers started collecting statistics in 2001, they ranked first and fourth, which are the two years with the fastest growth rate in history. The abundant social funds caused by the massive infrastructure construction will indirectly benefit the automobile market. What are the differences between this “new infrastructure” and the massive “old infrastructure” ten years ago? Or is history starting all over again? It’s hard to tell now, but it’s certain that 2020 is destined to be extraordinary. (Text/"Autobot" Zhang Heng, some pictures are from the Internet) Copyright Statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of "Autobot", and the copyright belongs to "Autobot".

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.