What will be the direction of the capital market in 2019? Experts give authoritative analysis!

Zinc Finance

What new changes have taken place in the investment environment in 2019?

The slogan "Survive" at Vanke's 2018 autumn regular meeting heralded that the winter of real estate has arrived, causing many people to feel uneasy. Accelerating the withdrawal of funds and shrinking the front line has become the primary goal of major real estate companies. In fact, it’s not just the real estate industry. Ren Zhengfei also said at Huawei’s 2018 strategy meeting: “Surviving is Huawei’s highest strategy.”

Following the slogan of “survive”, major enterprises There has been a wave of layoffs, ranging from Internet companies such as Meituan and JD.com to real estate companies such as Greentown and Country Garden. In 2018, at least 16 companies were reported to have laid off employees and reduced their recruitment scale.

In fact, the financial industry should be the first to feel the harsh winter of 2018. “Capital winter” has long become a frequently used word in the venture capital circle. The monetary environment is tightening, financial supervision is becoming increasingly strict, the Sino-US trade war is unresolved, and the credit crisis caused by frequent thunderstorms in the P2P industry has made the "money shortage" particularly obvious in 2018, and this trend currently seems difficult to find in 2019 turning point.

In such an investment environment, from a capital perspective, the industry is relatively cautious. Debt financing and financing costs no longer play a decisive role as they once did. Equity funds, PE, VC is not like the era of mass entrepreneurship and innovation, and it is no longer a "waste investment" to buy the track.

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What is your judgment on the capital market in 2019?

In 2019, stabilizing growth remains the primary goal of economic development. From the perspective of specific macro indicators, borrowing economist Shao Yu's point of view, the boundary of relevant policy formulation is to "protect 678", that is, the GDP growth rate is "678", the RMB exchange rate is "7", and the M2 growth rate is "8". The RMB exchange rate will be affected by interest rate differentials in the short term, inflation in the medium term, and labor productivity in the long term. Against the background of the turbulent international situation, protecting the exchange rate means protecting confidence. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the foreign exchange reserves of 3 trillion yuan will be maintained.

In terms of liquidity, the release of M2 will return to normal track. And through appropriate policy guidance, we can guide the flow of credit to the private corporate sector and the real economy, so as to ensure the relative stability of finance, economy and asset prices.

In 2019, facing the "bottoming out" of valuations, the A-share market may have overseas capital inflows, and some themes such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 5G may bring new impetus to the entire market, so I Investors who believe that risk appetite is higher can slowly invest in A shares.

Regarding the fixed-income market, domestic inflation pressure is currently declining, the Federal Reserve is at the end of raising interest rates, and the People’s Bank of China is leaning toward loose monetary policy. It has launched a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio reduction at the beginning of the new year, and the probability of targeted reductions in market interest rates in the future has increased. , therefore, locking in some high-quality fixed-income products now will help combat the decline in market interest rates in the future.

Regarding the floating market, the secondary market will be more active than the primary market. Current policies provide positive support for the secondary market. The secondary market is in a historical position in valuation, and monetary policy is relatively loose. Liquidity will improve in the future, so the stock market will benefit and the overall rebound will occur. However, the profitability of the stock market is still declining, so the financial report disclosure period will intensify the volatility. The primary market will lag behind in showing signs of recovery, and the M&A market will be the first to be active in the primary market due to policy support.

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What suggestions are there for asset allocation for the three types of investors: prudent, conservative, and aggressive investors?

Starting from the new regulations on asset management, the first step that asset management institutions need to do is to identify investors. As practitioners, we need to help investors identify what kind of investment style, investment preference, and risk preference they have; in the second step, we can match the assets that suit the client.

On a deeper level, since the financial reform, a series of policies have caused investors to face many difficulties. 2019 is an even more confusing year. There are too many variables and influencing factors. How will the Sino-US trade war end? What will happen? Can private enterprises in the real economy get rid of the dilemma of credit contraction, including whether market-oriented reforms can reshape the operating environment? These are all very uncertain.

At the same time, we believe that the Matthew Effect may intensify in 2019. Many central enterprises and large enterprises can obtain money from banks or capital, but more small and medium-sized enterprises still cannot obtain financing. Therefore, from the perspective of the overall investment strategy, we still recommend investors to look at the general trend and choose some real industries with industrial upgrading, because now it is a very important strategy for the entire country to move from virtuality to reality, and investors should invest more money. On some assets that can be seen clearly or whose logic is relatively clear.

For conservative investors, it may be more suitable to choose some relatively stable channels, such as trust funds, etc., but the core logic of investment is: if the underlying assets can be clearly seen, this money Who is invested, what is the money used for, and what is used to repay the money? In some industries, this logic is very clear.

For relatively aggressive clients, we instead recommend allocating some secondary markets, including allocating some overseas investments. In fact, we believe that with the current situation in China's capital market, the valuation of the secondary market is already very low. Even when it comes to investing in some PE projects, you really might as well invest in the secondary market, because the prices of some industries in the secondary market are already upside down. It may be cheaper than investing in a PE, and the relative risk is even lower. Of course, this is all based on the customer's true risk preference and financial situation.

For stable customers, the core logic is that investors should invest in assets with a transparent underlying structure and clear repayment logic.

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In addition, some real estate projects, consumer finance, supply chain finance, and some upgrading and transformation industries are all areas where we think there are opportunities. As long as we find core enterprises, we can build long-term Investment and long-term cooperation.

At the same time, in the technology industry and the consumer service industry, the technology industry is mainly electronics, components, software, information services and other industries, and the consumer service industry is mainly media, tourism, commerce, leisure services and other industries. Among these industries Opportunities exist, but in-depth due diligence and analysis are required when selecting counterparties.

In general, the opportunity lies in the discovery that in 2019, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will provide policy catalysts and improve liquidity, which will have a significant role in promoting small and medium-cap growth stocks. Shengshi Yongan has a professional team that will follow the market The rapid changes are also constantly optimizing choices.

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Between investment income and investment safety, how do investors often choose? What kind of advice will Shengshi Yongan give?

The return is likely to be directly proportional to the risk, excluding some opportunistic investments that may lead to high returns. This may be human greed. In other words, many customers are lucky, or the institution or financial manager chosen by the customer may not be that professional.

As mentioned above, investors must first make a self-judgement of their own risk preferences. For a conservative or relatively stable client, we still insist that a return of 10 is a threshold. In the current market, unless it is a customized product, I think you need to be very cautious with a return of more than 10. Private equity products have a return of less than 10 I think it's relatively reasonable.

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In the next stage, what are the development opportunities for asset management institutions?

I think the development trend of asset management may be more refined. We may choose several industry directions and then do it in depth, detail and thoroughness.

For example, we have now abandoned the investment logic of “casting a wide net and buying tracks” that many institutions used in the early years. What we now basically adopt is to select a small number of partners, hit hard, and concentrate resources. , and then focus on several industries or companies through in-depth and long-term cooperation to provide more support for these industries and companies. It allows us to share more profits and investment opportunities brought by growth. I think this may be a small trend in the future for some asset management companies, including small private equity companies.