The chemical industry will usher in a comprehensive revaluation

"Carbon Neutralization+New Energy" is still the strongest main track, and the comprehensive value revaluation of the chemical industry is on the way.

The strategy of "double carbon" will become the underlying logic of China's economic development, energy transformation and resource protection for a long time, and there are various ways to achieve carbon neutrality.

On the supply side, the chemical industry, as one of the typical high-energy industries, will be deeply involved, and the chemical industry has ushered in a new round of supply-side reform of the total control version. On the demand side and energy side, the chemical industry in the middle and upper reaches provides necessary resources and raw materials for the development of new energy industry, which are often the products of strategic resources or "double high".

The "new world" and the "old world" are not completely different cuts, but accompanied by development. Under the guidance of the national "double carbon" strategy, the supply of some chemical materials will be restricted for the requirements of resource protection and energy consumption control, and the rapid development of new energy industry will significantly stimulate its demand, and related chemical industries will usher in a historic golden development period. In addition, Baima, a strong leader in the traditional field of chemical industry, will fully enter the new energy track with enough space and good prospects by virtue of its own capital and resource advantages under supply constraints.

Under the grand strategy of "carbon neutrality" and the blessing of new energy, the chemical industry will usher in a comprehensive revaluation. The future chemical market will focus on three key words: carbon neutrality, new energy and value revaluation.

Upstream chemical raw materials such as soda ash, fluorine, phosphorus and silicon will continue to benefit from "carbon neutrality+new energy"

The upstream chemical raw materials such as soda ash, fluorine, phosphorus and silicon, which are limited by "carbon neutrality" and resource security issues, but benefit significantly from the demand for new energy, will usher in historic changes.

Soda soda: Photovoltaic glass was put into production and gradually realized, and soda soda soda turned into "photovoltaic alkali". In the case of shrinking supply in soda industry, the demand for photovoltaic glass continues to grow with high certainty, which also makes soda industry have a certain supply gap in 2022.

Fluorine: Emerging industries will create new demand growth poles, and the supply of fluorite is in short supply. As a scarce strategic mineral resource, fluorite is being gradually protected. At the same time, with the rapid development of new energy, it will change the consistent development logic of fluorite industry in the past, and new energy and new materials will replace refrigerants as the most important downstream applications of fluorite in the future.

Phosphorus: The rapid development of new energy will reshape the logic of industry development. As a national strategic resource and the downstream "double high" characteristics, the expansion of phosphate rock production is seriously limited. At present, as the most mainstream product of lithium battery cathode, the demand for phosphorus resources is rising, and the industry is expected to continue its high prosperity.

Silicon: Under the background of dual carbon, the concentration of industrial silicon industry is expected to increase, and the photovoltaic boom is expected to stimulate the growth of rigid demand for industrial silicon. With the vigorous development of photovoltaic industry and the improvement of silicone's permeability, the demand for industrial silicon will increase rapidly. In the case of a substantial increase in demand, it is expected that the operating rate of the industrial silicon industry will increase in the future, the tight supply situation is expected to improve marginally, and the industry will maintain a long-term prosperity.

New energy transformation brings great opportunities to chemical materials industry.

Under the background of carbon neutrality, the demand of new energy market is expected to achieve rapid growth, which will drive the demand of upstream materials to increase simultaneously. Since the beginning of this year, chemical industry leaders have accelerated the layout of new energy materials, which is expected to gain a higher competitive advantage by virtue of resources, scale effect and industry consolidation's ability.

Lithium iron phosphate

The demand explosion of lithium ferrous phosphate is an important opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises.

Since the beginning of this year, with the outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, the demand for lithium ferrous phosphate has increased rapidly, which may increase by 65,438+00-20 times in the next 5-65,438+00 years, thus driving the demand for iron phosphate and purified phosphoric acid upstream of lithium ferrous phosphate. At present, the leading companies of lithium ferrous phosphate have planned to expand their production in the next few years, but they all rely on imported raw materials, so it is urgent to match the upstream phosphorus resources.

Electrolyte solvent for lithium battery

Electrolyte is the "blood" of lithium batteries. The role of electrolyte is to transport and conduct lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes, which is called the "blood" of lithium batteries. The electrolyte consists of three components: solvent, solute (lithium salt) and additive, with the addition amounts of 80%, 12% and 5% respectively.

Carbonate organic solvents are mainly used as electrolyte solvents, including dimethyl carbonate (DMC), diethyl carbonate (DEC), propylene carbonate (PC), ethylene carbonate (EC), methyl ethyl carbonate (EMC) and so on.

Electrolyte additives VC and FEC

VC and FEC are the most commonly used electrolyte additives at present.

Electrolyte additives are indispensable and important raw materials for the production of lithium batteries, accounting for about 5% by mass in lithium batteries. Among them, ethylene carbonate and ethylene fluoride carbonate are still the most commonly used additives in electrolyte, because they have the functions of optimizing SEI film formation, reducing internal resistance at low temperature and improving battery performance at low temperature.

In addition, commonly used electrolyte additives include propane sultone, vinyl sulfate, lithium difluorophosphate, etc.

According to the data of Baichuan Fu Ying, the total demand of electrolyte in China in 2020 is about 279,000 tons, including 6,543,800 tons of power electrolyte, 94,900 tons of digital electrolyte and 6,543,800 tons of energy storage electrolyte. In the future, driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage, the demand for VC and FEC will grow rapidly.

Polyvinylidene fluoride (short for polyvinyl fluoride)

Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) has excellent properties and is mainly used in high value-added fields.

The traditional downstream of PVDF is coatings, mainly heavy-duty industrial coatings (chemical industry, ships and marine engineering) and high-end architectural coatings (landmark buildings and airports). According to the data of Baichuan Fu Ying, the demand for PVDF in China will be 70,000 tons in 2020, of which 1.39 million tons will be used for lithium batteries and 0.57 million tons for photovoltaics. The rise of new energy will drive downstream demand.

In recent years, the downstream demand structure of PVDF has shifted from traditional anticorrosive coatings to new energy industry. In 2020, the demand for new energy will account for about 28% of the total demand for PVDF, and it is expected that the demand will increase to 63% in 2025.

extravehicular activity

In recent years, due to the increasing demand for ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer for photovoltaic films, foams and cable materials, the apparent consumption of ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer in China has continued to increase. By 2020, the consumption of ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer in China will rise to 6.5438+0.864 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.25%.

Photovoltaic film is the largest downstream application field of EVA, and the demand accounts for about 35%. In 2020, the domestic demand for EVA photovoltaic materials is about 600,000-700,000 tons, but there are not many domestic manufacturers, and the dependence on imports is still above 70%. In the case of tight balance between supply and demand, the price of EVA has risen sharply since the second half of last year.

Due to the long expansion period of EVA industry, especially the long climbing period of photovoltaic materials, EVA will still maintain a high prosperity in the next two years under the condition of tight supply and demand.

Baima, a chemical leader, has entered the field of new energy materials in an all-round way relying on the advantages of capital, cost and resources.

The vast market space of new energy industry naturally has great attraction to powerful chemical industry leaders. Baima, the chemical leader, has entered the field of new energy materials in an all-round way, not in the future tense, but in the present tense. With the advantages of raw materials, cost and capital, chemical industry leaders will continue to expand downstream and actively deploy new energy materials business. The support of national policies will greatly enhance the confidence of enterprises and social capital to continuously invest in new energy industries, boost the rapid development of new energy industries in China, and help chemical industry leaders usher in a comprehensive revaluation of their values.

Wanhua chemistry

Wanhua Chemical takes MDI and TDI as the core, focusing on improving the capabilities of polyether and modified MDI. As a leading enterprise in the global polyurethane field, Wanhua MDI business occupies 50-60% market share in China and more than 25% market share in the world.

Relying on petrochemical and industry consolidation platforms, the company continues to expand the business of fine chemicals and new materials. In the future, the integration projects of citral and its derivatives, synthetic perfume, waterborne coatings, ADI, nylon 12, ternary materials for lithium batteries, iron phosphate and lithium ferrous phosphate, biodegradable polyester projects, key materials for flattening large-scale integrated circuits, and POE high-end polyolefins will continue to provide guarantee for its growth.

Hubei yihua

10 On June 5438+02, Hubei Yihua Group signed a cooperation agreement with Guangdong Bangpu Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Bangpu Times New Energy Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiaries of Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., and according to the agreement, the Bangpu integrated battery material industrial park project with a total investment of about 32 billion yuan was settled in Yichang. The project takes the cathode material of new energy vehicle power battery as the core, covers the whole life cycle of the battery, and integrates the multi-link business such as "phosphate rock-raw material-precursor-cathode material-battery recycling".

Hubei Yihua announced that the lithium ferrous phosphate industry is expected to continue to enjoy the high prosperity driven by downstream demand such as new energy vehicles in the next few years. As raw materials of lithium ferrous phosphate, purified phosphoric acid and ferric phosphate are expected to have broad market prospects in the future. The cooperation between the company and Ningbo Bangpu to build an integrated battery material project will help the company seize the development opportunity of new energy market, optimize and upgrade the industrial chain layout of phosphorus chemical industry, give play to the synergistic effect of coal chemical industry, phosphorus chemical industry and chlor-alkali chemical industry, and improve the company's market competitiveness and sustainable profitability.

Satellite chemistry

Satellite chemical ethane cracking to ethylene project has obvious advantages in cost, environmental protection and energy consumption. At the same time, by-product hydrogen can also be used in hydrogen energy projects in the future, which is in line with the hydrogen energy strategy and has great development potential under the background of carbon neutrality.

In addition, the company has accelerated the construction of polyether macromonomer, ethanolamine, vinylamine and EAA materials downstream of ethane in Lianyungang base, and plans to build/kloc-0.5 million tons of lithium electrolyte solvents and additives (including DMC, EC, DEC, EMC and PC, as well as FEC and VC additives) from the end of 2022 to 2023. At the same time, by-product hydrogen is used to promote hydrogen energy business, further expand the influence of hydrogen peroxide in semiconductor, photovoltaic and other industries, and accelerate the pilot project of ethylene homopolymerization to grow chain α -olefins and POE technology development projects.

Rong Sheng Petrochemical (SZ002493) USD.

Relying on the refining platform, Rong Sheng Petrochemical has continuously extended its industrial chain and actively laid out new downstream materials. Its holding subsidiary, Zhejiang Petrochemical, put into production 200,000 tons/year industrial DMC last year, and the 300,000 tons EVA plant planned by Zhejiang Petrochemical in the second phase is expected to be put into production this year. The release of high value-added new material products will further enhance the company's profitability.

Lu Hua hengsheng

At present, the production capacity of Lu Hua Hengsheng DMC is 50,000 tons/year, and the 300,000 tons/year DMC production plant based on ethylene glycol plant was successfully started at one time on June 35,438+1October 3, and the quality directly reached the standard of excellent products.

The high-end solvent project planned and constructed by the company not only further expanded the DMC production capacity, but also expanded the solvent varieties to methyl ethyl carbonate and diethyl carbonate, forming a relatively complete solvent product matrix.

With the rapid increase of lithium battery consumption, the demand for solvents such as dimethyl carbonate and methyl ethyl carbonate as electrolyte solvents for lithium batteries has increased greatly.

It is believed that with the commissioning of high-end solvent projects and the further development of battery-grade solvent products in the future, Luhua Hengsheng will be expected to fully enjoy the dividends brought by the rapid development of new energy industry.

$ Aoke shares (SZ300082)$

Oak Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise of ethylene oxide derivatives (EOD) in China, with obvious advantages in upstream integration, and is now extending from the traditional building materials field to the high value-added electrolyte materials field.

The company has a production capacity of 20,000 tons of electrolyte solvent EC/DMC. At the same time, through participating in Suzhou Huayi, the leading electrolyte additive, we will further lay out high barrier and high added value VC and FEC materials. The company cooperated with China Academy of Sciences to develop ethylene oxide transesterification to produce dimethyl carbonate. Compared with propylene oxide (PO) process, the raw material cost is greatly reduced and the cost advantage is remarkable. In May of 2002 1 year, Suzhou Huayi planned to invest1100 million yuan to build10/0.65 million tons of new energy lithium battery electrolyte and additives project. The project plans to land a variety of high barrier additives, and the product layout is at the forefront of the industry.

USD Lianchuang Shares (SZSE 300343) USD.

The traditional business of Lianchuang Co., Ltd. is Internet digital products, which will be split in 2020. At present, the company mainly deals in fluorine-containing refrigerants and new polyurethane materials.

The company has passed the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements organized by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, has independent intellectual property rights, and adopts the whole process technology of the new environmental protection refrigerant tetrafluoropropene. The production capacity of the company R 142b is 20,000 tons/year, and the maximum export quota of domestic listed companies R 142b is 1.265 million tons. In August, the company has put into production 3,000 tons/year of PVDF, and the projects put into production in 2022 include: 5,000 tons/year of PVDF projects; 6,000 tons/year technical transformation PVDF project.

Dongyue group

As the largest supplier of R 142b and lithium-grade PVDF in China, Dongyue Group is mainly engaged in the research and development and production of new environmental protection refrigerants, fluorine-containing polymer materials, silicone materials, chlor-alkali ion membranes and hydrogen fuel proton exchange membranes.

The company has a vertically integrated industrial chain layout, covering four industries: fluorine, silicon, membrane and hydrogen. It produces hydrofluoric acid by outsourcing fluorite and extends downstream to fluorine-containing polymer materials. As of 202 1 interim report, the company's PVDF capacity 10000 tons and R 142b capacity are 33000 tons. At the same time, the company has lithium-grade PVDF production capacity, and the company has added PVDF production capacity 1 10,000 tons. It is expected to start construction in the second half of this year. #A shares # # Stock market review # # Stock #