Do you know about photovoltaic power generation projects? Is there any development prospect? (Development prospect of photovoltaic power generation)

Answer: Photovoltaic has no prospect now,

However, off-grid new photovoltaic is very promising.

I think the prospect of photovoltaic power generation is not great, mainly due to the following factors:

1. Photovoltaic power generation takes up a lot of space, such as land resources. First, a large amount of power generation needs to be exchanged for space. Many rural people think that installing photovoltaic power generation on their roofs can gain benefits, but this benefit will take many years to take effect. As for the future national policies and electricity prices, no one can say for sure.

2. At present, the country is reducing the capacity of thermal power and increasing the capacity of nuclear power and hydropower, especially nuclear power. The country's emphasis on atomic energy will accelerate the development of nuclear power. With the development of human civilization, the electricity consumption is also increasing steadily, and photovoltaic can't meet this demand.

3. In the long run, photovoltaic is also a kind of environmental pollution. The sun shines on the earth, warming the land and providing energy. If this energy is converted into electric energy, it will definitely destroy the ecology when it reaches a certain level. The difference in temperature will cause ecological changes.

China's photovoltaic industry started around 25, driven by European market demand. In the past ten years, it has achieved great leap-forward development from scratch and from existence to strength, and established a complete market environment and supporting environment. It has become one of the few strategic emerging industries in China that can participate in international competition simultaneously and reach the international leading level. This paper mainly combs the competition pattern of photovoltaic power generation industry in China.

Major listed companies in photovoltaic power generation industry: At present, the major listed companies in domestic photovoltaic power generation industry include GCL-Poly, Zhonghuan, Longji and Tongwei.

core data of this paper: market concentration, competition pattern and five-force model of photovoltaic power generation industry

1. Competition echelon of photovoltaic power generation industry in China

Photovoltaic power generation is an important branch of China's energy supply system and an important part of new energy. According to the business income of photovoltaic power generation industry in 22, it can be divided into three competitive echelons. Among them, enterprises with operating income greater than 2 billion yuan include Longji shares and Tongwei shares; Enterprises with an operating income of 1-2 billion yuan include: Zhonghuan, Dongfang Risheng, Sunshine Power and Chint; The business income of other enterprises in photovoltaic power generation industry in 22 is below 1 billion yuan.

2. Market share and ranking of photovoltaic power generation industry in China

From the perspective of the upstream polysilicon production share of photovoltaic power generation industry in 22, Yongxiang shares ranked first in the industry with 21.45%, followed by GCL-Poly, with 2.26%, and Xinte Energy ranked third with 17.16%.

from the perspective of photovoltaic modules, according to the statistics of PV

InfoLink supply and demand database, Longji stands on the throne of the first component shipment with a dark horse posture of more than 2GW. Jingke, which has been the champion of shipping for many years, retired to the second place, and the third place was Jingao, which continued to grow steadily all the way. Ranked fourth and fifth are Trina and Artes. Although the shipping ranking has changed, the TOP

5 members in 22 are basically the same as those in the first half of 22.

3. Market concentration of photovoltaic power generation industry in China

The upstream polysilicon industrial chain of photovoltaic power generation industry has formed an oligopoly situation. According to the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the CR5 of polysilicon industry has increased from 6.3% in 218 to 87.5% in 22, and the concentration has been further improved.

4. Enterprise layout and competitiveness evaluation of photovoltaic power generation industry in China

Among the listed companies in photovoltaic power generation industry, Longji, GCL-Poly, Zhongli Group and other enterprises have diversified business layouts in photovoltaic power generation industry, involving silicon wafers, components, power station operation and other links. Some listed companies focus on a certain link in the industrial chain, such as Qingyuan shares focusing on photovoltaic brackets. From the perspective of the proportion of photovoltaic business, Longji shares, Yijing Optoelectronics and other enterprises focus on the photovoltaic industry, and the rest of the enterprises are diversified. From the perspective of competitiveness, Longji shares and Tongwei shares have strong competitiveness.

Note: GCL-Poly has not released its annual report for 22, and the proportion of photovoltaic business in 22 is only forecast data, for reference only.

5. Summary of the competition status of photovoltaic power generation industry in China

From the perspective of the five-force competition model, at present, China's photovoltaic power generation industry belongs to the new energy industry, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation is still relatively high compared with other modes such as wind power, hydropower and thermal power, so it faces a greater threat of industry substitutes; There are many competitors in the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry, and international leading enterprises have laid out the China market one after another, so the overall competition in the industry is fierce; Some key photovoltaic spare parts in the upstream still need to be imported, but overall, the technological progress is relatively fast, and the manufacturers of key photovoltaic components have certain bargaining power, but tend to weaken, while the downstream consumer market is mainly the power bureau and distributed photovoltaic users, and the bargaining power of photovoltaic enterprises is weak; At the same time, due to the high capital and technical threshold in the industry, the threat of potential entrants is less.

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The above data refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry by Foresight Industry Research Institute

Hello, this problem cannot be generalized. It can only be said that overall, the prospects are promising. However, a good prospect does not necessarily mean that you can make money by investing. Specifically, it depends on local policies, capital costs, light intensity, and solar power generation systems used to determine the final investment income. Early investment can really get good returns by relying on grid-connected income and state policy subsidies, but with the increasing number of installations, the state subsidies are gradually decreasing. The risk of investment has also risen in a certain proportion. Therefore, before investing, we must first understand the policies and other information of the investment location. The prospects are definitely good.

It is a development direction from the perspective of national policies.

The prospect is not great, which can be seen from the fact that the state subsidies are getting less and less, because this area covers a large area and generates less electricity. The country that occupies cultivated land does not allow it, and the roof of the farm house is not enough to generate electricity and the area is small. Occupy the wasteland, and the wasteland is now afforestation. So the land area is precious now.

the state has continuously invested in the new energy economy and given strong policy support. New energy is a development direction in the future, and photovoltaic power generation is also an important measure in the development of new energy. The initial investment cost of photovoltaic power generation is relatively large, so it is better to do what you can, and it will be merged into the state grid to earn the price difference. After deducting the initial cost and the later operating cost, it is a profit. It is suggested to seek government cooperation. Thank you

According to the statistical data of "In-depth Investigation and Investment Prospect Analysis Report of Guangdong Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry in 217-222" issued by Academia Sinica,

Section I

I. Analysis of Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry Chain Structure

Since more than 8% of solar photovoltaic cells are produced from monocrystalline silicon or polycrystalline silicon, Here, crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic cells are mainly produced, and each link of the industrial chain is as follows: crystalline silicon raw material production-crystalline silicon wafer preparation-solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing-solar photovoltaic cell module production-solar photovoltaic product production-solar photovoltaic cell system application.

Chart: Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry Chain

Data Source: Academia Sinica Puhua Database

1. Solar Photovoltaic Products

Solar photovoltaic products take the sunlight as energy, receive solar radiation through solar modules, convert light energy into electrical energy, and continuously charge the storage battery under the management of the controller, which releases the electrical energy in the storage battery to supply power to the electrical equipment according to the set program.

the most basic components of solar photovoltaic power generation are solar cells, including monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and thin-film batteries. Among them, the amount of single crystal and polycrystalline batteries is the largest.

2. Application: Photovoltaic power generation system

Photovoltaic power generation systems can usually be divided into independent photovoltaic power generation systems, photovoltaic grid-connected power generation systems and complementary photovoltaic power generation systems. Photovoltaic array, power converter and control system are essential, and they all have similar and common parts in many aspects of power conversion and control strategies.

II. Analysis of the value chain of photovoltaic power generation industry

The value chain of crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic power generation industry consists of two process routes, in which the single-crystal solar cell processing links include the production of high-purity silicon, pulling single crystal, slicing single crystal silicon, cell production, component packaging and system application; Polycrystalline silicon solar cell processing includes the production of high purity silicon, polycrystalline silicon ingot, polycrystalline silicon ingot breaking, slicing, cell production, module packaging and system application.

for the production of high-purity silicon, there is an industrial value chain, that is, silicon ore

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metallic silicon

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high-purity polysilicon. Firstly, silicon ore with high content of

SiO _ 2 is refined into metallic silicon with Si content above 99%, and then 9-11N high-purity silicon is extracted by some crystal silicon purification processes such as improved Siemens method.

Section II

Analysis of polysilicon supply and demand and profitability

I. Analysis of polysilicon production scale

Chart: Analysis of China's polysilicon production scale in 214-216

Source: Academia Sinica Puhua Database

II. Analysis of polysilicon production scale

Chart: Analysis of China's polysilicon production scale in 214-216 <

in p>214, the price of polysilicon in China was generally stable; In 215, the price of polysilicon showed a trend of "falling all the way"; In the first half of 216, due to the downstream rush of "63", the price of polysilicon began to rise steadily. With the end of 63 rush, the downstream demand weakened, which led to the decline of polysilicon price from July to the end of September; The price drop caused polysilicon manufacturers to take the initiative to overhaul and reduce production, and at the same time, downstream manufacturers took advantage of low prices to start hoarding goods, prompting demand to increase again. In November, polysilicon prices began to rise again.

Chart: the price of photovoltaic polysilicon in China from 214 to 216

Source: Academia Sinica Puhua Database

In the near future, photovoltaic power generation can be used as a supplement to conventional energy sources to meet the demand of domestic electricity in special application areas and remote areas without electricity, which is of great significance in environmental protection and energy strategy. In the long run, photovoltaic power generation will eventually enter the power market with distributed power sources and partially replace conventional energy sources.

22-12-22

Photovoltaic industry refers to the equipment manufacturing industry related to photovoltaic power generation, which belongs to the new energy industry. More than 3/4 of the domestic territory's lighting resources are in line with the utilization of solar energy resources, with great application potential.

The Report on Deep Market Research and Investment Strategy Analysis of Photovoltaic Industry in 22 issued by Xinsijie Industry Research Center points out that compared with traditional thermal power, photovoltaic power generation almost pollutes the environment; Compared with hydropower, wind power and nuclear power, photovoltaic power generation has no emission, low noise and mature technology; In recent years, the domestic photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and the scale is large, which has caused some pressure on the state subsidy funds. Therefore, the state's support policies for the photovoltaic industry have gradually weakened, and the competitive advantage of the industry needs to be transformed to reduce the dependence on the state support policies.

photovoltaic power generation can make full use of solar energy, and it is an environmentally friendly, stable and reliable energy source in the future. Because the investment scale of photovoltaic industry is relatively high in the initial stage and the operating cost is low in the later stage, major countries and regions at home and abroad have formulated policies such as equipment installation subsidies and online price subsidies for the market development of photovoltaic industry in the early stage, which has greatly promoted the early market development of photovoltaic industry.

with the support of terminal subsidy policies at home and abroad, China's photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and the industry is gradually maturing, accounting for more than 65% of the world's total. In 217, the downstream installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry in China reached 53GW, which can be subsidized by domestic governments at all levels in the short term, but in the long run, it is difficult to bear such a large scale of financial funds.

from the cost calculation of photovoltaic power generation, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in some areas has been lower than that of thermal power, which provides a technical basis for reducing subsidy policies. In addition, from the perspective of industry development, the photovoltaic industry has passed the initial stage of development, and the continuous high subsidy policy will encourage the inertia of enterprises, ignoring the improvement of cost control, new technology research and development, production process improvement and other aspects, so the domestic subsidy policy gradually reduces the subsidy standard.

In 218, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 218, proposing that China needs to reasonably grasp the pace of photovoltaic power generation projects and optimize the scale of new construction; Accelerate the decline of photovoltaic power generation subsidies and reduce the subsidy standards for photovoltaic power generation industry; Give further play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources.

in January, 22, the national energy administration issued the notice of the national energy administration on matters related to the construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects in 22, and it is planned that the bidding subsidy will be 1 billion yuan, and the bidding scale of photovoltaic power will be 27.8GW, which is lower than the previous subsidy scale.

according to the research analysts of Xinsijie, the weakening of state support policy in photovoltaic industry is the general trend from the aspects of industry development cycle, technical level and finance. Although some enterprises in the industry will be laid off and their income will be reduced in a short period of time, more enterprises will start to strengthen research and development of new technologies, expand into the field of energy storage batteries, control operating costs and other measures, and the competitive advantage of the industry will be transformed into technology, cost control and service, and the sustainable development ability of the industry will be further enhanced.